Tuesday, October 11, 2011

The Service Sector Business Activity Index fell to 49.8 from 53.8 in September showing a contraction for the first time since April, 2009. TOI, October 6. Growth in the manufacturing sector has fallen to around 4%. Naturally employment is also falling. Direct tax collections grew by 6.7% as opposed to 17% expected in the budget. Fiscal deficit will be near 6% as opposed to a target of 4.2%. Lying politicians are quick to blame interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank for the stalling economy but even after raising interest rates 12 times inflation continues to be above 10%. The rupee has fallen from 42 to the dollar to near 50 which will also add to inflation. The RBI is at fault not for raising rates but for not raising them quickly enough and by a higher margin so as to bring inflation down sooner. Government policies are solely responsible for uncontrolled inflation. By increasing salaries of useless civil servants by 80%, wasting Rs 600 billion in forgiving loans to farmers and starting the MNREGA scheme which pays rural poor Rs 162 for 100 days a year for not working, to win the elections in 2009, deficit has gone out of control. Bad loans for banks are increasing and the enormous cash injection has caused inflation. Increasing salaries of civil servants has not cut down bribery but has instead increased their price leading to an explosion of black money as seen by the fairy tale property prices. To counteract the immense unpopularity of the Congress the inner gang is recommending a food security bill to cover 75% of the population. This can only lead to out of control deficit, fall in the rupee and further inflation. Disaster beckons. The Congress did it.

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