Saturday, October 29, 2011
Even as politicians and business people blame the RBI for slowing growth by raising interest rates food inflation jumped to 11.4% in the week to October 15. It was 14.2% at the same time last year so the present rise is based on an already high level of inflation. From March to October food prices have risen by 12.1%. Inflation should drop from December when summer crops are harvested and winter vegetables come to the market but this will be a seasonal dip and prices could go up again next summer. As I have been saying the foundation of this inflationary trend was set in 2008 when the Congress used public money to bribe voters by forgiving loans of farmers, started a scheme called MNREGA which pays rural people Rs 162 per day for 100 days a year for doing nothing and increased salaries of useless parasitic civil servants by 80%. Unable to control its ballooning deficit our most revered Finance Minister is now contemplating reductions in fund allocations to these schemes. The bond market has proved that those who blame the RBI are lying. In Friday's auction, yields on 11 year government bonds reached 8.95% which means traders believe that the government will not be able to reduce fiscal deficit forcing it to borrow from the market pushing up rates and inflation will remain high preventing the RBI from reducing rates. The only good news in this dismal picture is that dealers are predicting a fall in sales of properties. The only way to control inflation is to eliminate black money and that can only be done by reducing property prices by 70%. Once black money is sucked out of the system real growth can start. What will the criminals do?
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