Thursday, October 20, 2011
On his return flight from South Africa our most revered Prime Minister confirmed that the economy will grow by 8-8.5% this year and 9% next year. Every indicator points in the opposite direction. Inflation is out of control despite the RBI raising interest rates 11 times. Growth in industrial output is stalling. Politicians try to pass the blame on to " foreign factors ", high commodity prices and the high interest rates when they are the ones responsible for this mess. Fiscal deficit will be above 6%. Revenue shortfall could be between Rs 500 billion and 1 trillion. The government will need to borrow to fill the hole and this will put upward pressure on borrowing costs. Although India has huge coal reserves lack of coal is causing power shortage. Demand for power is growing at 7% per year while production is growing at 2.2% causing damage to industrial output by 25%. Manufacturers of clothing are looking to shift production to Bangladesh after India raised the number of items of clothing from Bangladesh to 10 million pieces a year. India charges excise duty on finished clothing and wages are much higher here with workers agitating for more money due to inflation. Since textile industry is very labor intensive shifting production to Bangladesh will reduce employment prospects. With the economy almost moribund ministers are debating whether to eliminate Securities Transaction Tax to stimulate the stock market. Share markets are indicators of economic health like fever is a sign of underlying disease. Eliminating STT is like prescribing aspirin for tuberculosis. Perhaps, if politicians stopped travelling around wasting public money it might help. Criminals.
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