Sunday, August 08, 2010

Oh what joy! Direct tax collections from April to July has risen15.7% compared to last year, from Rs. 739.9 billion to Rs. 856.47 billion. Corporate tax has shot up by 21% from Rs. 426.85 billion to Rs. 516.27 billion while personal income tax has grown 8.5% from Rs. 312.79 billion to Rs. 339.40 billion. Impressive figures supporting the government's claim of 9% growth. The other way of looking at it is that the government desperately needs to raise cash because it is bankrupt and that is why it wants growth at any cost even though inflation is above 10% and rising. And that is why the Reserve Bank, RBI is not allowed to raise interest rates as much and as fast as it should. According to the banking secretary to the finance ministry, Mr. R. Gopalan banks are saddled with large amounts of Non Performing Assets or NPAs in the real estate sector. Loans to real estate companies have had to be rescheduled and the government does not want any more restructuring. Till March of last year the exposure of banks to the real estate sector was Rs. 915 billion. This year's figure is not given. If interest rates go up housing loans will become costly and the real estate sector would suffer. Banks could then be in danger of losing vast sums of money as loans turn sour. As the government earns enormous sums of money from the profits of public sector banks this could dry up. Also a lot of the black money politicians have invested in properties would disappear. The trouble is that unless property prices drop by 70 to 80% from the present fairy tale levels inflation can never be controlled. So either lose money or people die of starvation. Can this be called a conundrum?

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