Friday, August 20, 2010

The last US combat brigade is pulling out of Iraq proclaiming victory. One young soldier loudly claimed that the US had brought democracy to Iraq. But has it really? Six months after elections there is no government in Baghdad because political parties cannot agree on power sharing. Violence is increasing, the last suicide bomber killed 61 at an army recruitment center. Sunni tribal leaders, who helped the US against Al Qaida, are being assassinated. Shias comprise 60% of the population and are mainly in the south. Sunnis and Kurds are about 20% each with Sunnis in the middle and Kurds in the north bordering Turkey. Oil wells are mainly in the south and some in the north so Shias and Kurds get rich on oil money but Sunnis get nothing. Others may feel that the Sunnis deserve it because they had unlimited power and wealth for decades while Saddam, who was a Sunni, ruled the country but regional Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia will not see it that way. Iran is to the east and will no doubt want to exert its influence and want a government which will cooperate with it. Thus Iran is strategically placed bordering on both Iraq and Afghanistan to create trouble for the Americans. Iran is racing to develop nuclear weapons as soon as possible and will tolerate any amount of economic pain that sanctions can bring because it feels that nuclear weapons are a protection against the might of the west as the immunity enjoyed by Pakistan and North Korea continues to show. Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran and may feel compelled to attack. Will the Sunni Arab states help Israel? The US created a mess by getting rid of Saddam and are now running away. Its enemies can now concentrate on Afghanistan which makes the US much more vulnerable than before.

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