A humanitarian conflict.

"Iran has launched dozens of aerial drones and missiles at Israel, marking a widely anticipated reprisal attack." "It is the first such direct clash between the two enemies," and "The Israeli military said Israel and other countries had intercepted dozens of cruise missiles and drones, mostly outside Israeli airspace." BBC. "The US has shot down Iranian drones headed to Israel after Iran launched its retaliatory attack." "Other nations including France and Canada, have also condemned Iran and expressed support for Israel." BBC. On 1 April, "Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Syria," following which, "Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that seven Iranian military advisers died in the strike including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in its Quds Force, which is an elite foreign espionage and paramilitary arm." Reuters. "Airspace closures through the Middle East grounded and diverted flights on Saturday (yesterday) as Iran launched drones towards Israel." Israel, Jordan and Iraq closed their airspace. "It was not clear when flights would resume." NBC. Iran's attack should be a big respite for Israel, even if temporary. On 25 March, 14 of the 15-member UN Security Council voted a resolution, with the US abstaining, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, (UN) which would have given Hamas a golden opportunity to get a fresh supply of weapons from Iran. France went even further. "France's foreign minister said...that pressure, and possibly sanctions, must be imposed on Israel to open crossings to get humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza." The Times of Israel. How would they have stopped Hamas fighters from keeping the greater share for themselves? "Yemen's Houthi rebels launched multiple drones at Israel in coordination with Iran, security firm Ambrey says, adding that the projectiles were likely timed to reach Israel simultaneously." TToI. Five days back, "The US Central Command said on X its forces had destroyed an air defense system with two missiles ready to launch, a ground control station in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and one unmanned aerial system launched by the Houthis from Yemen over the Red Sea." Reuters. Clearly, the US action is inadequate and ineffective. Two days ago, "Dozens of Russian military instructors have arrived in Niger as part of a new agreement with the country's junta, which has cut links with the West. State media reported that they arrived along with a state-of-the-art air defence system." BBC. Just four days back, "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approach to the war in Gaza is a 'mistake', US President Joe Biden said in an interview." Reuters. Biden does not understand that Israel cannot run away in total disarray as the US forces did from Afghanistan under Biden's watch. BBC. Israel understands what woke Americans don't: Islamists kill for pleasure. No human being should be capable of what Hamas did to ordinary Israelis on 7 October 2023. AP. Iran, Russia and China versus the West. No time to be woke.   

What will happen, will happen.

"The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in India rose 5.7% in February as against 3.8% in January, revealed the data provided by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)." ET. "The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, from 56.9 in February." "India's manufacturing output rose for the 33rd consecutive month in the final month as growth quickened across consumer, intermediate and investment goods sector." ET. "India's dominant services industry grew faster in March amid strong demand, according to a private business survey that also showed employment increased at the fastest rate in seven months and export business expanded at a record pace. The final HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 61.2 last month from February's 60.6." Reuters. "Gross GST collection in March 2024 jumped 11.5% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 1.78 lakh crore (Rs 1.78 trillion). Total gross collection for FY24 stood at Rs 20.18 lakh crore, surpassing the revised budget estimate, compared to Rs 18.10 lakh crore in the previous financial year, showed official data." BT. Since the goods and services tax (GST) is based on consumption this would seem to indicate a booming consumer demand. But, since GST is a percentage of the price of goods and services, it might also indicate rising prices. However, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is coming down. "India's retail inflation eased to 4.85% in March as against 5.09% in the previous month." "The inflation in the food basket was at 8.52% in March, down from 8.66% in February." ET. This 4.85% rise is on top of a 5.7% rise in March 2023, 7.0% rise in 2022, 5.5% rise in 2021 and a 5.8% rise in March 2020. RI. India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.98 billion to an all-time high of $648.56 billion as of April 5, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). ET. If consumer demand is strong, both manufacturing and services sectors are growing strongly, CPI inflation is coming down and our forex reserves are at record level, why is the rupee getting weaker? The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar is at a record low of 83.61 this morning. xe.com. It ended the day at 83.4250 against the dollar on 22 March (Reuters) and fell to 83.46 against 1 dollar on 3 April (Forbes). Probably because, "Consumer prices in the US rose faster than expected last month," as "Prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months to March, up from 3.2% in February, the US Labor Department said." BBC. The price of oil has crept up, with Brent crude quoting at $90.45 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. US markets fell as hopes of a rate cut in June were dashed by the high inflation number. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 475.84 points or 1.24%, the S&P 500 fell 1.46% and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.62% yesterday. CNBC. Rising oil prices with a stronger dollar could raise the price of fuel in India which will feed into inflation by increasing transport costs. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are still raging. Que sera, sera, what will be, will be. dictionary. Let's enjoy the present.

Illeism is the clue to the future.

"Today, there is a strong Modi government, hence terrorists are killed in their turf," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi while campaigning in Uttarakhand. ET. Mr Modi was using 'Illeism', "which is the act of referring to oneself in the third person instead of first person." "Deepanjana Pal of Firstpost noted that speaking in the third person 'is a classic technique used by generations of Bollywood scriptwriters to establish a character's aristocracy, power and gravitas'." wikipedia. Earlier, "Defence Minister Rajnath Singh...said if needed, India will enter and strike, while responding to a media report that said the Indian government was allegedly behind the killings of almost 20 individuals in Pakistan that the intelligence officials deemed a threat to the nation's security." ET. When asked about the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar by Indian agents, PM Justin Trudeau said, "The killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is something we all should take extremely seriously." ET. India rejected Canada's allegations as "absurd and motivated". Mint. Unfortunately, dozens of Indians have paid an enormous price because of India's bellicosity. "Canada has recently decreased the number of Indian staff members in its diplomatic missions across India due to a shortage of Canadian personnel necessary for the effective management of in-country operations. This move comes in response to India's expulsion of 41 Canadian diplomats last year." ET. On the other hand, "An intelligence operative has been removed from his position and several others were reshuffled following an investigation into US claims of an alleged plot to kill Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." "The investigation concluded 'rogue operatives not authorized by the government had been involved in the plot'." HT. So, ridicule Canada, threaten Pakistan to show how tough you are, claim to kill terrorists "in their turf", which could mean in other countries, while humbly trying to pacify the US with a quick 'investigation' and transfer of officials. A classic case of having your cake and trying to eat it  (wikipedia). To create an illusion of a fair election the BJP "has sent invites to political parties of 25 countries around the world". "Political parties of around 15 countries have confirmed the participation," including "Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Mauritius among others." ET. The BJP may co-opt parties of other nations but many Indians are fearful. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman's husband, economist Dr Parakala Prabhakar asserted that "these elections encapsulate 'Modi-BJP versus Indian citizens',"  "Modi government is 'not democratic at all' and if Mr Modi wins this election "this would be the last election of the country. The map of India and the Constitution will be completely changed." DH. "The 675-mile-long mountain range that cuts through central India is no longer just a geographical divide." States to the south reject Mr Modi while his control of the impoverished north may win him the election, wrote Andy Mukherjee. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar send 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha while the 5 southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telengana send a total of 129. wikipedia. If Mr Modi wins he will increase seats of the northern states through delimitation to give permanent control to the BJP. The South may want to secede. Will Mr Modi use the army against the South? Will the Indian army shoot Indian citizens? We can only wait..

Think carbon tax, not cars.

"US power consumption will rise to record highs in 2024 and 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said." Reuters. "Electricity production in United States reached 379,799 GWh in Jan 2024," compared with 129.449 GWh in Mar 2024 in India. CEIC. In India, fossil fuels contribute 56.8%, coal's share being 49.1%, of our total installed capacity of electricity production, renewable energy sources provide 41.4% and nuclear production contributes 1.6%. Ministry of Power. Fossil fuels produce greenhouse gases, which are causing climate change, and pollution in our cities, causing illnesses and premature deaths. With a 7% share in greenhouse gas production, India comes fourth in the world behind China with 30%, the US with 15% and the EU with 9%. epa.gov. The good news is that, "India's greenhouse emissions rate dropped by a faster-than-expected 33% in 14 years as renewable energy generation rose and forest cover increased," which "should help India avert pressure by developed nations to stop using coal." Reuters. "In 1990, Finland was the world's first country to introduce a carbon tax. Since then, 20 European countries have implemented carbon taxes, ranging from less than 1 euro per metric ton of carbon emissions in Ukraine to more than 100 euros in Sweden, Liechtenstein, and Sweden. Tax Foundation. "On October 1, the EU kicked off the initial phase of a Europe-wide tax on carbon on imported goods." This is to protect European industries from cheaper goods from other countries but, "Europe's experiment could have ripple effects across the entire globe, pushing high-emitting industries to clean up their production and incentivizing other countries to launch their own carbon taxes." The Wire. India has the extra problem of having the largest population in the world at 1.44 billion people (Worldometer) packed into a relatively small area. "The world's most populous nation is more poorly endowed with farmland per capita than Greece or Algeria. That is going to make life harder as a fast warming planet destabilizes the cycles of rain and sunshine that have kept the Indian subcontinent fed for millenia," wrote David Fickling. "Of the 30 most polluted cities in the world, 21 were in India in 2019." "51% of the pollution is caused by industrial pollution, 27% by vehicles, 17% by crop burning and 5% by other sources." wikipedia. Biomass burning and industrial activities contribute 82% of PM2.5 emissions in India. Vehicles contribute only 7%, slightly higher in cities, wrote Chandra Bhushan. Biomass is used by the poor so politicians have shifted the blame solely on cars. The government wants at least 30% of cars to be electric by 2030. ABP. However, batteries comprise half the cost of electric cars (ET) and will have to be replaced every 5 years or so. No one will buy a second hand electric vehicle because the battery will have been used. Since China produces 80% of electric car batteries so our money will be transferred to China. iea. Indians will be losers. Again.

Denominator is below the line.

"The better-than-expected Dec quarter GDP numbers unveiled last month have acted as a booster for the Sensex and Nifty to new heights." "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has indicated that the economy is expected to grow 8% or more in the Jan-Mar quarter driven by improved inflation management and overall macroeconomic stability." TOI. "In April 2015, India had just over 2 crore (20 million) individual demat (dematerialised) accounts (HDFC) - the actual number of investors would have been even less as one person can hold multiple accounts. As of Feb 2024, the tally has grown over seven times to nearly 15 crore (150 million)." "Retail investors, including high networth individuals, account for 91% of the Indian fund industry's nearly Rs 22-lakh-crore (Rs 22 trillion) equity assets under management." TOI. "Motilal Oswal's (MOSL) latest India strategy report suggests that India's capital markets are on the cusp of embracing a golden era, termed as Amritkaal." "According to analysts at MOSL, India is currently experiencing a 'mini-Goldilocks moment', characterized by favorable economic conditions where the economy isn't overheated with high inflation nor sluggish." Mint. Depends on how people look at figures. Foreigners seem to be a bit nervous about Amritkaal. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)  withdrew Rs 325 crore from Indian equities in the first week of April and exhibited cautious behavior amidst the relatively high valuations and the upcoming general elections." ABP. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor can draw solace from a 5.09% CPI (consumer price index) inflation (when food inflation is still at 8.38%) and characterise the same as retreat of inflation elephant to forest." "Composite CPI, which measures consumer inflation for food and non-food, had a reading of 139.6 in January 2019. The composite CPI increased to 185.5 in January 2024. In five years, consumer inflation increased by 32.88% - that's by 6.58% every year," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "The value of the rupee against the US dollar has decreased from nearly 60 to around 83.31 over the last decade. This represents a decline of 27.8% over a ten-year period, which is less than 3% fall on an annualized basis." TOI. But the graph in the report shows the rupee at 58.78 on 16 May 2014, when the present government came to power, and at 83.19 on 9 April 2024, which is a fall of 41.53% or 4.153% per year. In a deliberate attempt to mislead readers, TOI has calculated the percentage with 83.31 as the denominator and not with 58.78 as they should have done. But even with 83.73 as denominator the percentage fall comes to 29.44%, and not 27.88%. Either TOI is acting as a mouthpiece for the government or it needs to buy new calculators. Amrit and Goldilocks are both myths. So, it seems, is the analysis. 

Internal matters.

"The US government recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as part of India and 'strongly opposes' any unilateral attempts to advance territorial claims in the northeastern Indian state that shares a border with China, the US State Department said." Reuters. India did not object to this as an "internal matter" but, "After India summoned a senior US diplomat to lodge a protest over remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Washington ...stressed that it encourages fair, transparent, timely legal processes and 'we don't think anyone should object to that'." ET. Earlier India had protested against the German Foreign Ministry saying, "We assume and expect that the standards relating to the independence of Judiciary and basic democratic principles will also be applied to this case." To that the Ministry of External Affairs fumed that it was a "blatant interference in India's internal matters". NDTV. "India is the world's oldest democracy; it is the mother of democracy." Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Why the "mother of democracy" should object to expectations of "basic democratic principles" by Germany and why repression of any opposition is to be condoned because it is an "internal matter" is not clear. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi often draws crowds of supporters from the Indian diaspora on his foreign visits. But back home, his administration has been revoking visas and residency permits of foreign nationals of Indian origin as well as spouses of Indian citizens." yahoo. In November 2023, "The US Attorney's Office has filed 'murder-for-hire' and murder-for-hire conspiracy charges against Indian national Nikhil Gupta." "In a statement today, the US Attorney's Office accused an Indian government employee of being part of a murder conspiracy." NDTV. Surely, "internal matters" do not extend to the US? A spokesperson for the (UN) Secretary General Staphane Dujarric hoped that in India people's "political and civil rights are protected" and everyone is able to vote in a "free and fair" atmosphere. DH. Yogendra Yadav, an Indian, said, "Here is a safe election forecast: 2024 is going to be the least free and fair national election in Independent India. We do not know if it will eventually turn out to be a seriously compromised election or a complete farce." The Wire. So far US President Joe Biden has been largely supportive of Mr Modi, but "The Democrats already stand in danger of losing the overwhelming support of American-Muslim votes in the 2024 presidential election." DH. And, "The Russian foreign ministry has said that the flow of Russian oil to India continues at a high and stable rate, with no challenges in payment transactions despite global sanctions." TOI. What if the US, EU and the UN refuse to recognize Mr Modi's victory, if he wins, as fair? Elections may be "internal matters" but recognition is external. Can't be forced. 

The elephant could wander uphill.

At a three-day meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to "keep the key policy interest rates unchanged for the seventh time in a row, in line with market expectations, and reiterated commitment to bring down inflation to its target of 4% on a sustainable basis." DH. It took three days to do nothing. That's a lot of tea and biscuits. "With a majority of 5:1, the committee decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. RBI has forecast Indian economy to grow at 7% in FY25." "CPI inflation projection left unchanged for FY25 at 4.5%. Forex reserves at an all time high of $645.6 billion as of March 29." ET. By predicting consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4.5% while expecting a growth rate of 7%, the highest in the world, the RBI is blatantly ignoring its mandate of targeting a 4% CPI inflation rate till March 2026. ET. In fact, since October 2019, CPI inflation has been mostly at 5% or higher, the highest being 7.8% in April 2022 and the lowest 4.1% in January 2021. RI. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that "when CPI inflation had peaked at 7.8% in April 2022, the elephant in the room was inflation. The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest." ET. That is hilarious, indeed. Why such jocularity? Because, as per the 7th Pay Commission recommendation, Dearness Relief has been increased by 4% to 50% for retired Central government officials. ET. 'Dearness' means "the fact of being expensive". dictionary. Thus, if an official is receiving Rs 200,000 per month as pension, she/he will get an additional 50% or Rs 100,000 to ride the elephant of inflation, even as it wanders around. "Latest data on various external vulnerability indicators suggest improved resilience of India's external sector. We remain confident of comfortably meeting our external financing requirements," Das said. Despite that, the RBI bought $2.95 billion of foreign exchange, raising reserves to a record $645.58 billion. Reuters. The RBI also bought 8.7 tonnes of gold in January. "The central bank's gold reserves rose to just over 812.3 tonnes by the end of Jan." TOI. That put India at ninth in the world after Japan which had 846 tonnes. wikipedia. Has this anything to do with the US dollar? "Employers in the US added more than 300,000 jobs last month - the biggest gain in almost a year - as the boom in the world's largest economy continued. The jobless rate fell to 3.8%, as most sectors, including health care, construction and the government added roles, the Labor Department said." BBC. Which means, "Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic,...told CNBC he now thinks the Fed should make just one (rate) cut this year - below the three that were predicted by Fed officials in March." ET. That could raise the dollar, put downward pressure on the rupee, raise the cost of imports and thus send the elephant up a hill. That would not be so funny. Would it?

Not if, but how far.

"Just before 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which are scheduled to begin from April 19, once again Prime Minister is having a 'surgical strike' moment of sorts." ET.  On 26 February 2019, just before the election, Indian warplanes supposedly bombed terrorist training camps inside Pakistan. "Open source satellite imagery has revealed that no targets of consequence were hit. The following day, Pakistan shot down an Indian warplane and took its pilot Abhinandan Varrthaman, as prisoner." wikipedia. Whatever the truth, Mr Modi's party the BJP won a majority of 303 seats out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. "This time it is a viral news report in the British newspaper Guardian that talks about how India got 20 people killed inside Pakistan over the past three months in targeted assassinations. While the government has denied having any role in the killings, a lot of Indians on social media are feeling proud of this 'achievement'." While vigorously denying these allegations as "false and malicious" propaganda, but not wanting to lose the electoral bonus, "India will enter Pakistan to kill anyone who escapes over the border after trying to carry out terrorists activities in the country, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told CNN News18." Reuters. A kind of 'nudge-nudge, wink-wink' signal to Bhakts, who live in an alternate reality, (DH) and believe that Mr Modi is a modern day Atlas carrying the world on his shoulders (Britannica). According to the craven supine media, contemptuously labeled the 'godi media' (wikipedia), Mr Modi has already won the election. However, if elected, "The Congress party, as part of its anti-corruption measures, promised to investigate 'dubious deals and schemes'. It said that it would probe demonetisation, the Rafale deal, Pegasus software, and Electoral Bonds scheme." BT. Ominously, the Congress manifesto "refrained from listing measures to curb the 'misuse' of laws like the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) and Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) which, it maintains, have been misused against political opponents, dissidents and activists." TOI. It is not just some in the BJP who will feel a chill at the thought, but the 25 opposition leaders, who have seen criminal allegations against them washed clean after joining the BJP (The Wire), may be panicking, even if confident of victory. Then, there are the civil servants. "The bureaucracy was conceived to promote and safeguard public interest." But "Today's civil servants have been subverting established systems to please the political masters," wrote Mathew John. All these people could be having nightmares about facing the PMLA and UAPA. And, since these dishonorable, corrupt individuals will be in charge of the elections Mr Modi's victory is all but guaranteed. The question now is: How far will they go?  

More than Gini.

In India, the Gini coefficient was 0.30 in 1993-94, 0.35 in 2004-05, 0.36 in 2009-10 and 0.36 in 2011-12, wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. Gini coefficient is a measure of income, where 0 represents perfect equality of income, while 1 represents all income concentrated in the hands of one individual. wikipedia. So, while consumption surveys show that millions of Indians have been lifted out of poverty, the rising Gini index shows increasing inequality. However, a villager in India "hardly cares if Mukesh Ambani adds another five billion to his wealth in a given year. But if her neighbor's wealth rises sharply while she struggles, she has sleepless nights." Mukesh Ambani's net worth is estimated at $115.2 billion (Forbes), which converts to Rs 9.56 trillion. This is so colossal that even an educated middle-class Indian will be unable to wrap her mind around its meaning. After the Reserve Bank (RBI) decided to withdraw Rs 2000 notes from circulation  (ET), the Indian villager will be unable to calculate how many Rs 500 notes will make Rs 1 million. That is because only 43% of 14-18 year old children can do a simple division problem, according to the Annual Status of Education Survey (ASER) 2023. The Wire. For an economy which boasts of being the fifth largest in the world with a GDP of $4,112 billion (Forbses) reduction of abject poverty is not enough. "Although the youth population, at 27% of the total population in 2021, is expected to decline to 23% by 2036, around 7-8 million youths are added to the labor force each year." "Overall, the youth unemployment rate declined after 2017-18 dropping to 12.4% in 2021-22 and further to 10% in 2022-23." But, "the percentage of unemployed youth with secondary and above education among the total unemployed has increased from 54.2% in 1999-00 to 65.7% in 2021-22," wrote Alakh N Sharma and Ravi Srivastava. While, Mukesh Ambani adding a few more billions to his wealth, or that son Anant has a collection of luxury watches worth Rs 2 billion (GQ), may be irrelevant to the educated youth, they have a right to feel a trifle aggrieved that Ambani's children have joined the board of directors of the $100 billion Reliance Industries. wikipedia. "Twins Isha and Akash, 32, got over 98% of votes for being appointed on the board of Reliance while Anant, 28, got 92.75% votes, the filing showed." NDTV. Because papa Mukesh Ambani owns 50.39% of the company. India's billionaires - "Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani and Sajjan Jindal - have entered the leagues of the world's richest people." "None of this trickled down to workers. The share of manufacturing, which could have created jobs for the bulging youth population, has shrunk to 13% of the overall output, compared to 28% in China," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Perhaps, the Gini is not enough. Perhaps, we need indices for opportunity, for cronyism and for dignity. Prof Panagariya should work on those.      

Can't dismantle. Advise.

"Questioning the methodology of global rating agencies, India's CEA (Chief Economic Advisor) V Anantha Nageswaran pressed for the dismantling (of) Moody's, Standard & Poor, and Fitch's oligopoly. India's economy, despite rising to the world's fifth-largest from the 12th over 15 years, remains in the lowest investment grade assigned by the agencies. This has dismayed Nageswaran, who attributes the low rating to the over-reliance of rating agencies on qualitative parameters." BT. These are all US firms so India cannot dismantle them. As the CEA, why doesn't he set up an Indian index and award the highest rating to India? Just as, "The Narendra Modi government has approached a major India think tank to develop its own democracy ratings index to help it counter recent downgrades in ratings and severe criticisms by international groups, Al Jazeera reported." International organizations have rated India as "Partly Free", "Electoral Autocracy" and "Flawed Democracy". The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) is to release the index soon. The Wire. Risky. It might provide material for jokes by comedians in Western countries. "A squeeze on free expression and opposition has been a feature of the rule of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially since its second general election victory five years ago. Harassment, often by tax or legal authorities, has become common for government critics, be they independent media, academics, think tanks or civil society groups," opined the Financial Times editorial board. HT. We agree. Totally. S&P rates India as BBB-, Moody's as Baa3 and Fitch as BBB-, all with stable outlook. TE. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) held Rs 62 trillion worth of Indian stocks as of the end of January 2024, which is 16.3% of total market capitalization of Rs 380 trillion. Mint. That's a lot of money. It is therefore the duty of these rating agencies to guide their investors of their own nation. On the other hand, "Global funds have already added about $10 billion into Indian bonds since JP Morgan Chase & Co's September announcement of the nation's inclusion in its closely followed emerging-market debt index." HT. "Bloomberg Index Services said...it would include in its Emerging Market Local Currency Index from Jan. 31 next year 34 Indian government bonds eligible for investment via the fully accessible route (FAR)." Mint. Both these firms are also American. "The pricing power by the 'Big 5 companies' in India is possibly leading to persistent core inflation, former Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Viral Acharya said." The Big 5 are - the Reliance Group, Tata Group, Aditya Birla Group, Adani Group and Bharti Airtel. The Wire. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) operates seven ports/terminals on the west coast and eight port/terminals on the east coast. ET. Adani Enterprises "owns and operates seven airports across India, six of which it won as part of the government's privatisation drive in 2019." Reuters. The CEA is supposed to advise. He should advise an end to crony capitalism. Ratings will improve automatically. If he dares.   

All damage is collateral.

"A deadly Israeli attack that killed seven aid workers from the non-profit World Central Kitchen (WCK) in Gaza...appears to have consisted of multiple precision strikes, a CNN analysis of aftermath videos and images found. WCK said in a statement that its team was traveling in a 'deconflicted zone' in two armored cars and one unarmored vehicle," and "The charity said it had coordinated the convoy's movements with the Israeli military." CNN. If WCK was delivering aid and had informed the Israeli military why was it using armored vehicles? Does it come under attack from Hamas? "I am outraged and heartbroken by the deaths of seven humanitarian workers from World Central Kitchen, including one American, in Gaza yesterday." "They were brave and selfless. Their deaths are a tragedy." The White House. However, "this wasn't the first time humanitarians have been killed in the Israeli-Hamas war. But this attack killed foreigners, provoking a notable response." USA Today. So who were these foreigners? One Australian, one from Poland, three from the UK and one from US/Canada. The Palestinian driver made seven. Reuters. In March, " At least 12 Palestinians drowned off the northern Gaza coast near Beit Lahia...while trying to reach airdropped parcels that had landed in the sea," and earlier, "at least five people were killed and 10 others injured when airdropped aid packages fell on them in Al Shati camp west of Gaza city." "Hamas has called on Western countries to end airdrops of aid into Gaza." CNN. To the dead person it does not matter whether it was an explosive or a sack of wheat dropped from a great height which killed her/him but the Western media gets outraged only at the deaths of their citizens. While Libyans claim tens of thousands died due to illegal bombing by NATO, AP puts the deaths at a derisory 72 to 403 while admitting that "NATO warplanes conducted more than 9,600 strike missions." In December 2013, a hellfire missile fired by a US drone killed at least 12 civilians in a wedding party in Yemen. hrw.org. Biden was the Vice President in the Obama administration when these atrocities were taking place but he was not in the least "outraged or heartbroken". The US does not count or acknowledge the hundreds of thousands of civilians, including children, it kills (watson.brown. edu), contemptuously dismissing them as "collateral damage". "As of 14 February 2024, 134 hostages remain in captivity in the Gaza strip, 130 of whom had been abducted on 7 October 2023; the other four hostages having been captured earlier." wikipedia. Israel cannot stop fighting until it has freed all the hostages and Hamas knows it is finished without using these hapless prisoners as human shields. More than 18 million people are at risk of famine in the civil war in Sudan and armed gangs are terrorizing civilians in Haiti (DH), whose capital Port-au-Prince is only 434 miles from Florida (distance calculator), but there is hardly any concern. But then, they are not citizens of Western countries. Just collateral damage.   

Services before chips.

"For more than half a century, the handbook for how developing countries can grow rich hasn't changed much: Move subsistence farmers into manufacturing jobs, and then sell what they produce to the rest of the world." "Today, manufacturing accounts for a smaller share of the world's output, and China already does more than one-third of it." "Factories today tend to rely more on automated technology and less on cheap workers who have little training." "One alternative might be found in Bengaluru, a high-tech center in the Indian state of Karnataka." "Such centers are expected to generate 500,000 jobs nationwide in the next two to three years, according to the consulting firm Deloitte." yahoo. This was advised by Prof Raghuram Rajan who said to "focus on high value-added services instead of manufacturing to productively harness the country's demographic dividend and propel the country into 'Amrit Kaal' because if India does not grow, it would grow older demographically before it gets richer." TOI. Rajan "has batted for a services-led export model for India instead of following China's manufacturing-led one in order to grow faster." Also, "Since many of these services are weightless they have low climate impact benefiting the efforts to mitigate climate change." ET. Rajan cautions against subsidies for manufacturing chips. "The reality is that chip subsidies are capital subsidies, which are meant to be paid up front," and "only the naive will think the subsidies will stop here. What we will get, if all goes well, is 28 nm chips. The state of the art in modern cell phones is 3 nm." BT. Enraged patriotic 'experts' called him a "parachute economist", meaning an ignorant foreigner who drops in to pontificate without proper knowledge. News 18.  "The last-quarter spurt would see India's merchandise exports to be around $445 billion in the financial years 2023-24, about 1.3% lower than the previous year's level of $451 billion." "Services exports are up 6.7% on year till February to $314.8 billion. They are expected to end the year at around $345 billion." FE. "If India wants to build a robust computer and electronic manufacturing industry, it needs to shift focus, fast." "That would mean recognizing that Vietnam, not China, is its biggest rival." "But India stands out among peers in implementing higher import taxes, which motivate companies to set up in the country to supply local consumers, but also makes them less competitive in the export market," wrote Tim Culpan. As a result of these policies, "In India, higher educated young people are more likely to be unemployed than those without any schooling, according to the International Labor Organization." TOI. Manufacturing is not creating enough jobs because the rural safety net, "MGNREGS has generated 40 crore person-days of work, more than the pre-pandemic (2019-20) level - suggesting a continuing rural distress, and that job opportunities in the cities may not have returned to normal." TOI. We already have a start in services. We might lose that if we concentrate on manufacturing. Then, we had our chips.

Whose racket.

"Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar...took exception to people in the world trying to lecture India on its judicial mechanism, in the wake of the US and Germany commenting on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a money-laundering case linked to the now scrapped Delhi excise policy." HT. Kejriwal was arrested by the unaccountable ED on 21 March, and, as is usual, he was denied bail by the courts. The Hindu. His arrest less than a month before the Lok Sabha election (TOI) does not just fail the smell test, it positively stinks. The fact that Delhi's Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia has been held in prison since 26 February 2023 (India Today) without accusations against him being proved in a court of law is proof that the ED is being used to suppress opponents by force and not as an investigative agency. "After India summoned a senior US diplomat to lodge a protest over remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Washington...stressed that it encourages fair, transparent, timely legal processes and 'we don't think anyone should object to that'." ET. "A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said that the world body 'hopes' that in India and any country that is having elections, people's 'political and civil rights' are 'protected' and everyone is able to vote in a 'free and fair' atmosphere." DH. Kejriwal claims that these accusations are just a way to pressure him to join the BJP (TOI), which is believable because others accused of much more serious financial crimes have seen charges disappear on joining the BJP (The Wire). BJP has been labeled as the 'Washing Machine Party' and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement welcoming everyone into the party has been taken as confirmation. Mint. In court, Kejriwal accused the ED of running a "racket" to cover up the Electoral Bonds received by the BJP from the businessmen involved in the excise duty investigation. HT. Public sector banks have been deducting subscriptions for various insurance schemes favored by the government from accounts of customers without permission. They are forging names of nominees and refusing to refund the money deducted surreptitiously. The Wire. A survey "of over 30,000 people across 24 countries, conducted between February and May (2023) by the Pew Research Center, shows that India is viewed favorably with a 46% median, while 34% looked at India unfavorably." Reuters.  On 15 August 1947, more than 75 years ago, Jawaharlal Nehru said, "At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom." wikipedia. "It is painful, and it may not be inappropriate to say at this stage that a darkness descends, as freedom is being robbed, democracy is being crushed and India is sleepwalking into a collapse," wrote Jagdish Rattanani. The darkness is not that the BJP is committing atrocities, the darkness is that the educated elites are supporting it (NTDV). There is a racket. But, whose is it? 

The larger the better.

"Overseas Indians sent home a record $29 billion by way of remittances in the December quarter as steadily climbing returns from FCNR (foreign currency-non resident) instruments have made such savings plans more lucrative than bank deposits in the West. To be sure, remittances are a source of permanent flows, unlike repatriable NRI deposits, and these help in narrowing the current account deficit (CAD), which has steadily shrunk as a percentage of India's gross domestic product (GDP)." ET. "India's CAD narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in the October-December quarter largely due to higher services exports, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. The CAD stood at $10.5 billion in the third quarter of financial year 2023-24 compared with $11.4 billion or 1.3% of GDP in the preceding quarter." ET. "As high-earning Indians settle abroad they're infusing billions into local economies." Indians are the largest diaspora as "according to the UN around 18 million Indians now live overseas". "The growing Indian diaspora is spending, saving and investing in a number of ways, both within India and across the world." "An especially big factor in this mass capital movement is remittance payments back to India, which hit a record of $125 billion in 2023, up from about $100 billion the year before." "Data from Pew Research Center in 2021 showed that amid a population of around 4.4 million, Indians born outside the US earn an average of $120,000 per year." BBC. "India's bulging pipeline of large block trades and listings such as the $3 billion IPO of Hyundai Motor's unit will draw more funds to a market whose share of global equity capital market deals hit a quarterly record this year, bankers say." "Indian companies raised $2.3 billion in the first quarter of 2024 in IPOs, according to LSEG data, up more than 12 times the $166.5 million raised in the same period last year." Reuters. "Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore (Rs 128.77 trillion) in 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings." "The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85% in 2023-24. The benchmark hit its all-time high of 74,245.17 on March 7." PTI. In all this flood of good news, "In 2022-23, FDI (foreign direct investment) equity inflows declined by 22% year-on-year to $46 billion." "In the 10-year period to 2022-23, the FDI grew at a CAGR of 6.6% compared to 27% in the previous 10-year period." "According to Ritesh Kumar Singh, a corporate economist and a former assistant director of the Finance Commission of India, foreign investors remain hesitant towards India due to uncertainties in tax regimes, bureaucratic hurdles, and difficulties in enforcing contracts." TNIE. What flows in can flow out, so "India's central bank will keep building its forex reserves as it seeks to build larger buffers and strong inflows into the country's equity and debt markets give it an opportunity to do so," as "FX reserves rose to a record high of $642.63 billion as of March 22." Reuters. Remittances and share market, is that it? May need large buffers. Very large.       

Data praised by ILO.

"India's top 1 percent income and wealth shares have reached historical highs and are among the very highest in the world, according to a paper released by the World Inequality Lab. By 2022-23, the top 1% income share in India was 22.6% and the top 1% wealth share rose to 40.1%, with India's top 1% income share among the very highest in the world, higher than even South Africa, Brazil and the US." TIE. "The paper, co-authored by economists Nitin Kumar Bharti, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, and Anmol Somanchy, said the country had reached its historical highs in the last financial year. Naming the paper the 'Billionaire Raj', the authors claimed that the country was now more unequal than even (during) the British Raj." MC. This has enraged the Bhakts (DH) who worship Dear Leader as the new Messiah, and the chamchas (wiktionary) who rush to defend their taxpayer-paid emoluments and perks bestowed on them by Dear Leader. The paper is all wrong because, "the authors have combined different sets of data and engaged in interpolations and extrapolations to arrive at their conclusions without reflecting much on the compatibility and consistency of data," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Diksha Supyal Bisht. They have used data from the Periodic Labout Force Survey (PLFS) and not from the recent Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022-23, the middle class is expanding and absolute poverty is going down. Both the PLFS and HCES are government surveys, so their data should have been 'compatible' and 'consistent' such that there would be no need for so many 'inter and extrapolations'. "In the 2022 report, in order to harmonize, analyse, and disseminate comparable international inequality data, collaboration with statistical institutions, tax authorities, universities, and international organizations were made. It acknowledged they 'lack basic information about inequality'," wrote Prof Atanu Biswas. However, not all government data is poor. The International Labor Organization's (ILO) 'India Employment Report' was "full of praise for the quality of data produced by the Indian government, based on which the UN agency has presented its findings." It says that "83% of the country's unemployed are its youth". The Print. Also, "In India, higher educated young people are more likely to be unemployed than those without any schooling," and "The jobless rate for graduates was 29.1%, almost nine times higher than the 3.4% for those who can't read or write." TOI. Totally irrelevant because, "According to a recent study published in Lancet, 70% of India's urban population is classified as obese and overweight," "just behind the US and China, in the list of top 10 countries with the highest number of obese individuals." ET. This shows a very high proportion of 'equality', being ignorant is an advantage and the unemployed educated youth will benefit by eating less. Clap, clap.    

It was deserved.

"A suicide bomber rammed a vehicle into a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a dam project in northwest Pakistan.., killing six people police said, the third major attack on Chinese interests in the South Asian country in a week. The first two attacks targeted a Pakistan naval air base and a strategic port used by China in the southwest province of Balochistan where Beijing is investing billions in infrastructure projects." "A blast on a bus killed 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals, in 2021." Reuters. A salute to the brotherhood of terrorists. Between China and Pakistan, "'All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership' has grown into a towering tree with deep roots in the hearts of the two peoples. Chinese like to affectionately call the Pakistani friends 'iron brothers' while Pakistanis are used to describing Pakistan-China friendship 'as higher than mountains, deeper than sea, sweeter than honey and harder than steel'." CIIS. Too much honey between iron brothers explodes higher than mountains. "China has demanded a thorough probe into the deadly blast and security for its citizens after five Chinese nationals working on the Dasu dam project perished in a suicide bombing in Bisham." Dawn. "A Chinese company has halted civil works and let go of hundreds of workers at a hydropower project in Pakistan following a deadly suicide attack that claimed the lives of five Chinese nationals." ET. We Indians may be forgiven for enjoying this delicious irony. In 2017, China used its membership of the UN Security Council to block a bid by the US, France and Britain to list Maulana Masood Azhar, chief of Paksitan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militant group, as a global terrorist. Azhar was behind the terrorist attack on Pathankot Air Force station in January 2016. Mint. In 2019, China protected Azhar from being listed as a global terrorist for the fourth time (BT) despite a suicide car bomb attack at Pulwama in Kashmir which killed 44 soldiers of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) on 14 February (wikipedia).  In 2022, "Beijing thwarted efforts to designate Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba leader Shah Mahmood as a global terrorist." TOI. In 2022, "On October 26 and 27, India hosted the United Nation's Security Council's Counter-Terrorism meetings," at which an audio clip was played of "Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander Sajid Mir directing terrorists in the attack on Chabad House in Mumbai" in the "November 2008 terror attacks in which 166 people were killed." In addition to Sajid Mir, China blocked sanctions on "LeT deputy chief Abdur Rehman Makki; JeM deputy leader Abdul Rauf, who is the brother of JeM chief Masood Azhar; deputy chief of the LeT front Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation Shahid Mahmood; and LeT commander Talha Saeed, who is LeT chief Hafiz Said's son," wrote Sudha Ramachandran. The attack at Bisham could be a prelude. There could be more attacks on the Chinese in Pakistan, Afghanistan and in Xinjiang (BBC). Bastards deserve it.   

Bidding for growth.

"India has retained the title of the world's fastest growing major economy as it expanded 8.4% in the last three months of 2023, from a year earlier. The data comes as the country is set to hold a general election this year. BBC. The election will be held in 7 phases from 19 April to 1 June and results will be declared on 4 June." TOI. That will be a big yawn because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already announced a landslide victory with a total of 400 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha. The News Mill. And why not, when eminent economists are bidding against each other to predict the rate of growth of India's economy? India can grow at 8% till 2047, if the country can redouble the good policies, said India's executive director at International Fund (IMF) Krishnamurthy Venkata Subramanian. DH. "And if India grows at 8%, India can become a USD 55 trillion by 2047," he added. As of 07 February, India is the fifth largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $4.112 trillion. Forbes. We are in 2024 which means there are 23 years to 2047. Hence at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% our GDP should grow to $24.14 trillion by 2047. investor.gov. Not $55 trillion. "India needs to grow at 9-10 percent for the next three decades to become a USD 35 trillion by 2047, India's G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant said." ET. That's chump change. "India can achieve a growth rate of 10% in the next decade and become the second-largest economy by 2032 and the largest by 2050, given the energies and transformation driving the nation to overcome its challenges, said RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra." ET. Anyone bidding more than that? Referring to the 8.4% growth rate, "Former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian...said India's GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend." BS. "They don't add up. I don't know what they mean," he said. Clean your glasses, man. "Well, if you are mystified, first you check whether the mist is on your glasses or somewhere else, said Dr Arvind Panangariya." ET. Excellent advice. Better still, consult an optician. "India is making a big mistake believing the 'hype' around its strong economic growth since there are significant structural problems that need to be fixed for the country to meet its potential, former central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said." Such as "education and skills of the workforce". Horrified outrage. Dear Leader can walk on water. "NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani,..said that Rajan sounded like 'parachute economists' who are cut off from ground realities." ET. Bhakts (DH) can fly without parachutes. "At the last count, there were over 10 million child laborers and 43 million children who were denied the right to an education," wrote Bhuwan Ribhu. Children do not vote. They do not count in the 400.

Honorable Washing Machine.

"After India summoned a senior US diplomat to lodge a protest over remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Washington...stressed that it encourages fair, transparent, timely legal processes and 'we don't think anyone should object to that'." ET. Earlier, "India lodged a strong protest...regarding the German envoy's comments on the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal in the Delhi liquor policy case. The ministry of external affairs stated that the German envoy's remarks constituted a 'clear interference in India's internal affairs." ET. Delhi's elected chief minister has been arrested even though former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia has been incarcerated in prison in the same case since 26 February 2023 without allegations against him being proven in court or any shred of evidence being produced to corroborate the allegations. Repeated applications for bail have been rejected by Delhi courts. India Today. But on what evidence? A short list of key opposition leaders, who could make a difference in the coming election, charged with unproven allegations has been compiled by Reuters. Since citizens are intimidated mute in a police state, foreign governments and media hint at their distaste. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala labeled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi a "washing machine" because those opposition leaders who have joined the BJP have seen criminal charges against them being dropped. The Wire. Demonstrating the power of the BJP, "Rameshbhai Chhotubhai Patel, a BJP MLA from Jalalpore, Gujarat, candidly mentioned a '2 percent' commission within the BJP system." He warned government contractors not to give money to anyone else. "He clarified his stance on graft in BJP system, stating that any contributions beyond the stipulated 2% were unacceptable." TNIE. Honorable corruption, as it were. In February, the Supreme Court "scrapped a seven-year-old election funding system that allows individuals and companies to make unlimited and anonymous donations to political parties, calling it 'unconstitutional'." Reuters. These were called 'Electoral Bonds'. So, who bought them? "Hyderabad-based Navayuga Engineering Company Ltd bought electoral bonds worth Rs 55 crore (Rs 550 million) - and every single one was redeemed by the BJP." The same company was building the Silkyara-Barkot tunnel in Uttarakhand which collapsed "trapping 41 laborers for 16 days, till they were pulled out by rat-miners." The Wire. Laborers rescued by rat-miners, company rescued by Electoral Bonds. P Saratha Reddy, who was arrested in the excise policy case. donated Rs 595 million to the BJP through Electoral Bonds. Initially he denied any link to Kejriwal but later turned approver for the government. Sisodia and Kejriwal have been imprisoned on his accusations. Reddy may have been washed clean. Very expensive 'Washing Machine'. But, is it honorable?  

Hurun List and hysterectomies.

"India's recent economic success, solid momentum, and promising prospects are making the country ever more influential both regionally and internationally. But the experience of other countries suggests that" "An action that makes sense domestically may conflict with what other countries expect from a systemically important economy. Meanwhile, actions that make sense internationally could complicate domestic economic progress," wrote Profs Mohamed A El-Erian & Michael Spence. "Improved capital formation in the economy, accompanied by various government measures, will generate more jobs opportunities in this decade than the previous one, chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said." ET. The previous decade, from 2014 till date, has been under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government since he won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. wikipedia. If it has not happened in ten years, why should we believe it will happen now? While we get a promise of jam tomorrow (wikipedia), "Mumbai has swiftly emerged as Asia's billionaire hub, surpassing Beijing for the first time, according to Hurun Research's 2024 Global Rich List," with 92 billionaire's to Beijing's 91. ET. "The Modi years have been exceptionally generous to the affluent." Their billions came "not by putting innovative products and services in global markets, but by carving up domestic industries such as transportation, telecom, power and gas, metals, retail, media and new energy. The Modi government rewarded large businesses with tax cuts and awarded them prize monopoly assets like airports. The billionaires got juicy deals when buying bankrupt firms and lobbied - often successfully - for protectionist trade policies. At the same time, India's rules on foreign direct investment protected the national team from muscular global rivals." Mint. According to a paper "titled 'Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj," "inequality in India now is worse than during the British Raj and is at its highest level in history," with "1% of the population owning as much as 40.1% of wealth and accounting for 22.6% of income in 2022-23." DH. The Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) found that 112 million jobs have been created between 2017-18 and 2022-23, but 37% of these 112 million were unpaid family workers (also known as self-employed helpers in household enterprises), wrote Abhishek Jha. The sugar industry in India runs on female slave labor. "Young girls are pushed into illegal child marriages so they can work alongside their husbands cutting and gathering sugar cane. Instead of receiving wages, they work to pay off advances from their employers," so that "An extreme yet common consequence of this financial entrapment is hysterectomies." "Hysterectomies keep them working, undistracted by doctor visits or the hardship of menstruating in a field with no access to running water, toilets or shelter." NYT. Hysterectomies have also to be paid for. Cut more cane.  
 

It's not about Putin.

On Friday, 22 March, in an attack on "Crocus City Hall, on the outskirts of Moscow - 20km (12 miles) from the Kremlin," "Video showed at least four people shooting randomly before proceeding to the concert hall itself and opening fire there." "By Sunday afternoon, at least 137 had been confirmed dead." "In addition to those killed, at least 60 remain in serious condition and authorities have warned more could die." BBC. "Taking responsibility for one of the worst terror attacks in Russia, the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) said that the mass shooting at the Moscow concert hall falls within the 'context of a raging war between Islamic State and countries fighting Islam'." "The terror organisation emerged in late 2014," and "has been named after an old term for the region that included parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan." Mint. "IS-K, believed to be operating out of Afghanistan" "has staged several attacks in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. In January, it bombed the commemoration ceremony of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, causing a high number of casualties." Dawn. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran are definitely not fighting Islam. "The United States warned Russian authorities earlier in March about a terrorist attack possibly targeting 'large gatherings' in Moscow, the White House said." NDTV. Given that the US and NATO are using Ukraine to destroy Russia, it is only natural that Russia is skeptical about US claims. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "some people on the 'Ukrainian side' had been prepared to spirit the gunmen across the border." "Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova questioned the veracity of the claim." "She referenced past involvement with Mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan during the Soviet era, hinting at historical precedent for skepticism." TOI. On 7 October 2023, Hamas attacked a music festival at the Supernova Sukhot Gathering in Israel killing 364 civilians and taking 40 hostages. wikipedia. Islamists love to kill. Israel was apparently warned 3 days before the attack, claimed House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee head Michael McCaul. "Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu described the reports as 'absolutely false'." BBC. So, did the US learn of the Moscow attack from online chatter or because some friends in Ukraine provided logistics support and were ready to assist in the escape? The US media is quick to use the tragic deaths of so many innocent people to score points against Putin. "Terrorist attack exposes vulnerabilities of Putin's regime. WP. "Appalling Moscow terror attack is a blow to Putin, who promised Russia security." CNN. "Deadly Moscow Attack Shatters Putin's Security Promise to Russians." NYT. If anything can be lower than the gutter press then this is it. However, we will not laugh at the CIA for the 9/11 attacks in the US (Britannica). There is nothing more innocent than enjoying a concert but "the Darul Uloom at Deoband in northern India" "has ruled that 'the most important reason' why music is forbidden in Islam 'is that the Quran and Hadith have forbidden it'." BYU Law. Just an excuse to kill. Indians beware.

Catch 22 of power.

"Bitcoin may be 'here to stay', but that still does not justify its adoption as a currency." "Humans have always assigned a value to various eclectic goods," and Bitcoin's price is a reflection of a cap on the total number of Bitcoins possible, wrote Srinath Sridharan. "That maximum supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is capped at 21 million," and already "19.6 million Bitcoin's are in circulation." "Currently, each block reward is 6.25 BTC." "In a nutshell, Bitcoin halving reduces the BTC rewards that miners receive for successfully validating a block. This is reduced by 50%." "The next halving will occur around April 2024," and "the block reward for mined BTC is expected to be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC." techopedia. "In a landmark development for the cryptocurrency industry, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has greenlit the establishment of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by investment funds, signalling a potential revival for the world's largest cryptocurrency token by market capitalization." Mint. However, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants a ban on all cryptocurrencies, ostensibly because it "is a form of gambling without any underlying value". India Today. How caring! This is the same Governor who stuck to an interest rate of 4% for 24 months, from May 2020 to May 2022 (Forbes) even while consumer price (CPI) inflation raged from a low of 4.1% to a high of 7.8% (RI) thus inflicting extreme financial repression on citizens, to support the government. "Financial repression is a term that describes measures by which governments channel funds from private sector to themselves," because "overall policy actions result in the government being able to borrow at extremely low interest rates, obtaining low-cost funding for government expenditures." "These measures are repressive because they disadvantage savers and enrich the government." Investopedia. "Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin lacks elasticity in its supply, making it inherently deflationary." High inflation helps the government reduce its debt by increasing tax collection through VAT or GST and the value of debt falls as the value of the currency declines. Economics Help. As proof, the value of the rupee has fallen from about 61 to one dollar in 2014, when this government grabbed power, to around 83 to one dollar presently. Forbes. Even as it wants a ban on Indians purchasing cryptocurrencies, "On July 5, 2023, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI)'s Inter-Departmental group (IDG) presented a roadmap for internationalizing India's currency," wrote Prof Dr. M. Jayadev. There are 200 cryptocurrencies at present with varying market capitalization. Coinmarketcap. If the rupee becomes truly international how will the RBI stop citizens rushing to buy Bitcoins or the US dollar to guard against RBI's repressive policies? You can either protect the wealth of citizens or you can loot them, can't do both. This is Catch 22 of total power. Megalomania.  

Brothers in arms.

"Mark Milley, former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, and Kenneth McKenzie, who led US Central Command," and who "led the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 have testified to Congress." Predictably, "they said that both the Biden and Trump administrations had had a role in the disastrous withdrawal, as had the administrations that preceded them." "Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani's decision to flee the country as the Taliban marched toward Kabul was then 'the straw that broke the camel's back'." BBC. In short, everyone except the US army, which is very adept at indiscriminate killing, but flees in total panic in defeat, as it did from Saigon in Vietnam in April 1975. Britannica. Stories to whitewash the rout as a heroic withdrawal are belied by photographs from that time showing the total disarray. google. Surely, the generals are responsible for, "Approximately $7 billion of military equipment the US transferred to the Afghan government over the course of 16 years was left behind in Afghanistan after the US completed its withdrawal," and "The equipment is now in a country that is controlled by the very enemy the US was trying to drive out over the past two decades: the Taliban." CNN. Naturally, the Taliban "fired heavy weapons at Pakistani forces along the border in retaliation" after Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan killed 5 women and 3 children. Reuters. On 16 March, "Militants attacked a military post in Pakistan near Afghanistan" "killing seven security force members, Pakistan's military said." "Pakistani government and security officials say attacks have risen in recent months, many of them claimed by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and launched from Afghan soil." Reuters. Pakistan should have been more careful because they got what they wished for (idioms). "The Pakistani establishment was ecstatic at the Taliban victory in Afghanistan in August 2021. Having backed them for over 25 years, they expected a friendly, if not pliable regime in Kabul." But, "much to Pakistan's chagrin, the Taliban government has repeatedly questioned the Durand Line as the border between the two countries. There have been instances of Afghan forces damaging the fence erected by Pakistan along it." "Frustrated with Taliban response, Pakistan" "imposed restrictions on Afghan transit trade through its territory," "threatens to introduce visas for Afghans to enter its territory," and "expelled around half a million Afghans living illegally on its soil without due process and compensation," wrote Sharat Sabharwal. Pakistan's chagrin is doubled because its 'good Taliban' has turned rogue. "Once lauded as the 'good Taliban' for refraining from carrying out attacks against Pakistan's security forces, (Hafiz Gul) Bahadur's group finds itself labeled 'bad Taliban' due to its role in the recent terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's southern region." Dawn. The Taliban was born from the Mujahideen in the early 1990s and the Mujahideen were supported by the US and Pakistan. CFR. Both the US and Pakistan are losers. Generals Milley and McKenzie should be proud. After all, they are brothers in arms.