Monday, December 01, 2025
'C' stands for confusion.
"The latest growth figure for India, clocking in at 8.2% despite an uncertain global economic situation, bodes well for the country's medium-term economic outlook. Combined with unusually low inflation, the numbers suggest something close to a Goldilocks economy - not too hot, not too cold, but (close to) 'just right." A very low inflation rate means the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can cut interest rates and blistering growth will entice foreign investors to invest in India," wrote Nirvikar Singh. Coincidentally, 'Nirvikar' means 'imperturbable'. "India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rose over 18%, in the second quarter (April-September) of the current fiscal year, amounting to $35.180 billion, while inflow from the US doubled to $6.62 billion during the period, according to the latest government data." "FDI equity inflow stood at $16,552 million." ET. This report is confusing either because of language difficulty or a deliberate attempt to confuse readers. Investment into equities or bonds are usually labeled foreign institutional investment (FII) or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and can be voaltile, while foreign direct investment (FDI) is into productive assets such as in plants and machinery and is considered long-term. Angel One. Indians use a different numbering system (wikipedia). The report says 6.62 billion and 16,552 million, which is 16.552 billion, making it difficult to compare. Why? "India's economy grew by 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Jul-Sep), marking a strong acceleration from last year's 5.6% growth for the same period." ET. But, "Just a few days before the release of the GDP data, the IMF quietly released its annual 'Article IV' report on India," which "gave India's national accounts (the system that produces GDP, GVA and related numbers) an overall 'C'." TOI. The IMF gives various reasons such as the base year is too old, not measuring producer prices and a breakdown of gross fixed capital formation, which is a measure of investment (wikipedia). India has objected that "The IMF staff, in its baseline projections, assumes that the higher US tariffs, introduced in August, will persist and weigh on India's outlook in FY26 and FY27. The IMF has projected 6.6% growth in FY26 and 6.2% in FY27." MC. In interviews, "Arun Kumar, a former professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University and Pronab Sen, India's former chief statistician, said that India's GDP is less than reliable." Prof Arun Kumar said that "when the government says it's $3.8 trillion, my estimate is that it is probably still $2.5 trillion," and Pronab Sen said it is "no better or worse than what it was 10 years ago." The Wire. Even if Kumar and Sen are unreasonably pessimistic, why is the government distributing free food grains every month to 813.5 million people for five years, starting 1 January 2024 (pib.gov,in), free domestic gas connections to poor households (wikipedia) and Rs 10,000 cash to 7.5 million women in Bihar at a cost of Rs 75 billion (pib.gov.in), if the GDP is growing at such a blistering pace? Possibly because GDP claims are to impress foreigners and score over the opposition, while handouts are to win elections, indirectly acknowledging poverty and deprivation. That may explain why the article on investments was deliberately misleading. An example of "godi media" (wikipedia)? Perhaps, the rupee will reveal (TOI) all.
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