Lifting not heavy enough.

"India is suffering from one of its most worrying slowdowns in capital formation in more than a decade." "Our ability to build new factories, expand infrastructure and adopt new technologies is weakening," wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri. "Gross capital formation includes acquisitions less disposals of produced assets for purposes of fixed capital formation, inventories or valuables. This indicator is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." World Bank. Thus it is an indication of new investment which will lead to increased production and job creation. Capital rises when households save more, these savings are lent to companies which use this to increase production. In India, "Household savings have fallen from 23% of GDP in 2011 to around 18% today," and there is a shift away from banks into gold and real estate. India's gross fixed capital formation has fallen from 34% of GDP to about 30% today, compared to China's 41%, and private corporate investment is at 10% of GDP, down from 27% in 2007-08. Of course, in absolute values India's GDP has expanded almost four-fold in the last decade. Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, in 2011-12 was estimated at Rs 82.33 trillion, whereas, "Nominal GDP...is estimated to attain a level of Rs 330.68 trillion in 2024-25". pib.gov.in. India is now the world's fifth largest economy with a GDP estimated at $4.13 trillion behind Japan at $4.28 trillion and higher than the UK at $3.96 trillion. Forbes.  Unfortunately, "India's blistering growth has a quality problem. GDP is speeding ahead at 8% in the world's fifth-largest economy but the government is doing the heavy lifting on investment." "Why aren't Indian companies investing? The simple answer is weak demand. Capacity utilisation, a measure of how much firms are using existing production capabilities, is below 75%, giving companies little confidence to put up fresh investment." Reuters. In September 2025, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called on the Indian industry to overcome its hesitation and significantly increase investment." Mint. But, how heavy is the government's lifting? "Budgeted capital expenditure (capex) of the Centre rose to over 3% of GDP from 1.7% a decade ago." However, "A significant portion of it has been in the form of financial transfers by way of equity infusions and loans to public sector enterprises (PSEs), state governments and other institutions." Such transfers may not be used to create new assets. "Why is it a big concern? When capital expenditure is inflated by misclassification or funds are diverted to cover losses and debt, it masks underlying fiscal strains," wrote Shruti Gupta. India is the fastest growing major economy and yet, "It can attract much more foreign investment, but it will not." Because, "Reforms create losers in the short run, while benefits accrue much later." So, "If 6.5% growth is enough to secure re-election, why risk pursuing 8% growth that could alienate farmers, labor unions and domestic big business," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. To sustain growth India needs the private sector to increase investment significantly, but private companies are shy to invest unless demand increases, demand cannot increase without higher employment and employment depends on much more new capacity. A classic chicken and egg situation. wikipedia. Foreigners wait and watch.  

All for God.

"At least 15 people were killed on Sunday 14 December as two gunmen opened fire at Australia's Bondi Beach, New South Wales Police said, in an attack that targeted a Jewish event celebrating the first night of Hanukkah." "Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the attack 'an act of pure evil'." ABC. Pure rubbish. "The Palestinian religious, academic, and political elites teach an ideology of virulent hatred of Jews. The killing of Jews is presented both as a religious obligation and as necessary self-defense for all humankind." icfa.org. It was an attack of religious hatred. The Bondi beach attack was clearly a copy of the attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, also during a Jewish festival. wikipedia. Calling it "evil" is an evasive shrug when, "Australia recognized the state of Palestine in September 2025, contributing to international momentum towards a two-state solution, a ceasefire in Gaza and release of Israeli hostages." dfat.gov.au. A ceasefire to give Hamas an opportunity to rearm, and the release of Israeli hostages tagged on last as a handout. It is not just the Muslims, hatred of Jews is ingrained in Christianity. (Pontius) Pilate said to them, "What then shall I do with Jesus who is called the Christ?" They (meaning Jews) said to him, "Let him be crucified." Then Pilate washed his hands saying, "I am innocent of the blood of this just Person." And all the people answered and said, "His blood be on us and on our children." Matthew 27. And so, "At times, it suited the Christian rulers to allow their Christian subjects to 'riot', that is, to enter Jewish homes and to rob, rape, and kill Jews at will, with no punishment by the rulers." "The word was 'pogrom' and it meant a riot by Christians, the purpose of which was to kill Jews, in the cruelest ways, with the quiet sanction of the state," wrote David Blumenthal. On the other hand, "Muslims respect and venerate Jesus Christ. They consider him to be one of Almighty God's greatest messengers to humankind." "Furthermore, his mother Mary is regarded as one of the most pure and exalted women of all creation." Muslim Unity Center. And so, "In Islamic tradition, Eissa (Isa) is a revered prophet and Messiah, son of Maryam (Mary). The name is widely used across the Muslim world." Eissa is the Arabic form for Jesus. Wisdom Library. The success of Muslims and Christians cooperation in eradicating Jews has meant that in 2020, there over 2,521 million Christians, almost 1,899 million Muslims and a tiny total of 14.8 million Jews in the world. Britannica. This camaraderie between Muslims and Christians against Jews was probably why university students across the US, Europe, UK, Australia and Canada came out in droves in support of Hamas and Palestinians. wikipedia. Anthony Albanese may be sincere in believing that supporting a Palestinian state will bring peace with Israel and Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah and Iran will accept that Jews also have a right to exist. "It's a part of who I am, my upbringing," he said when asked about the Catholic faith. cathnews.com. Albanese was booed when attending a vigil for the victims on Bondi Beach. Fox. Justifying slaughter. In the name of God. Astounding.             

Worst form of tax.

"A recent Morgan Stanley report estimates our (Indians') private gold hoard at 35,000 tonnes - among the world's biggest. And it keeps growing," wrote Nilesh Shah. Why is it a problem? Because apparently it is "unproductive as it lies dormant in the parallel economy." If this gold is unearthed it will provide i. additional tax revenue to the government, ii. inject liquidity into the hands of businessmen, iii. strengthen RBI's balance sheet, and iv. trigger a sovereign rating upgrade. How to grab people's gold? RBI will buy 65% at market rate and 35% will be held for 29 years without any interest. At Independence in 1947, one dollar was equivalent to Rs 3.3 and was at Rs 32.43, 30 years back in 1995. (bookmyforex), while this morning one dollar buys Rs 89.58 (xe.com), which is almost half the value. So, Mr Shah is suggesting that the government grab our gold and return worthless paper after 30 years. Without interest. Indians have been buying gold for thousands of years. "Even the poorest people in India buy gold, saving a little each week to buy a gram at a time." BI. These are people who do not earn enough to pay income tax but pay GST when they buy gold ornaments (MMTC). To hold 35% of the value of their gold for 30 years without interest is extreme financial repression. "Gold protects against inflation and currency fluctuation," it can be used for borrowing money in an emergency and it stays in the family. Muthoot Finance. Gold is generally considered to be fungible and can be exchanged for money at any time (Investopedia), unlike investments in property and mutual funds. Shares can become worthless if the company goes bankrupt and only Rs 500,000 in bank deposits is insured (RBI). which would be equivalent to only $5,587 at today's exchange rate. "If gold were an 'irrational' investment, it should have led to divestments by central banks. Instead, advanced economies seem to be hoarding gold while emerging markets with superpower aspirations appear to be raising their gold stakes," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) transferred 64 tonnes of gold bullion back to India. "As of September-end, out of the total gold holdings of 880.8 tonnes, the RBI maintained 575.8 tonnes within India, whilst 290.3 tonnes remained in the custody of the Bank of England and Bank of International Settlements." TOI. Veteran market participant, Siddhartha Bhaiya "sounded a sharp warning on Indian equities, calling the current market a 'bubble of epic proportions' rather than a healthy bull phase." MC. If the market falls, mutual funds will also lose valuation. The government collects 51% of the net revenue as tax on Equity Arbitrage Finds and "Additionally, if you also include 27% paid by the other side of the trade (counterparty), the governments total share rises to around 78% (51%+27%) of the total returns generated," complained Mr Shah. He wants rich shareholders protected and loot the poor of their little gold savings. Male villagers in Bihar who were paid Rs 10,000 into their accounts before the assembly election are refusing to return the money, saying "First return our votes to get back money," in a clear proof of vote buying by the government. TOI. The government will love Mr Shah's scheme. Loot their gold and give handouts to the poor to get their votes. Hope the poor don't fall for it. Brazen robbery.           

Heat from water.

"The global transition to electric vehicles is beginning to unravel," as "The European Commission backed away from what had been the world's most aggressive timeline for phasing out internal combustion-engines, granting manufacturers more time to move off gasoline. A day earlier, Ford Motor Co announced a $19.5 billion in charges tied to the retreat from an electric strategy it vowed to go all in on eight years ago." ET. Europe's retreat may have been forced by Chinese legacy automakers "flooding the world with fossil-fuel vehicles they couldn't sell at home." "Fossil-fuel vehicles have accounted for 76% of Chinese auto exports since 2020, and total annual shipments jumped from 1 million to likely more than 6.5 million this year." Reuters. Reliable electricity supply supports economic growth and constraints are a problem in developing countries. "Rich countries hadn't faced these questions because deindustrialization kept electricity demand flat or falling for the past decades despite economic growth. Now the rise of AI, rapid sales of electric cars and broader electrification of most economic sectors is causing even rich countries to panic." ET. As a result, "Global coal demand reached a record high in 2025 but is expected to decline by 2030 as renewables, nuclear power and abundant natural gas squeeze its dominance in power generation, the International Energy Agency said." Reuters. Increased use of coal is disastrous for the global climate. Hydrogen is the cleanest fuel. Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water molecules using renewable energy. "China accounts for "over half of the roughly 506,000 metric tonnes of green hydrogen production capacity in operation globally right now. A further 2.86 million tonnes is under construction worldwide, with 45% of the total in China." Blue hydrogen is produced by splitting fossil gas and then "pumping the waste carbon dioxide underground to drive oil out of depleted wells." Gray hydrogen is "the most polluting form, made from unabated fossil gas, coal and refinery products," wrote David Fickling. India's "renewable energy capacity surged past 200 gigawatts (GW). By 2030, it hopes to scale up renewables to 500 GW," wrote Sayantan Bera. The situation is precarious because, "A new study by six Indian scientists finds that over the past three decades, sunshine hours - the time direct sunlight reaches the Earth's surface - have steadily declined across most of India, driven by clouds, aerosols and local weather." This could cost a loss of $245-835 million in lost solar power generation. BBC. Germany is building giant heat pumps to supply heating to 40,000 homes. Two meter-diameter pipes will suck up 10,000 liters of water per second from the River Rhine and then return it once the heat from the water has been harvested. BBC. India is one of the hottest countries in the world. If Germany can harvest heat from its cold rivers, how much more can India harvest from more than 400 rivers (wikipedia) that flow across our land. And generate electricity from that heat. Wouldn't that be better than hydroelectricity from dams across rivers? And a lot cheaper.            

Just starting.

"Google is set to invest a staggering $6 billion in a 1-GW data center in Andhra Pradesh." "Notably, $2 billion of this investment is earmarked for developing renewable energy capacity to power the center." Sify is also setting up a center in Andhra Pradesh which "involves an investment of $1.9 billion for a 550 MW data center." "Today, we are announcing a landmark commitment: our largest investment in India to date totaling approximately $15 billion over the next five years (2026-2030)." "This AI hub is a multi-faceted investment combining powerful gigawatt scale data center operations, new large scale energy sources and an expanded fiber-optic network." blog.google. Not to be left behind, "Reliance Industries plans to set up a 1-gigawatt AI data center in India's Andhra Pradesh" and "Reliance's planned data center will operate as a twin to its gigawatt-scale data center in Jamnagar city in Gujarat state." Reuters. "Amazon.com Inc has pledged to invest $35 billion in India over the next five years (over and above the $40 that it has already put into the country)," while "Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion in India, its chief executive Satya Nadella said." ET. "From cloud to search and messaging to social media, we remain tethered to US platforms. All our data sits in the cloud and with our vendors. On the hardware side - servers, laptops, networking gear and semi-conductors - we are reliant on China." "Between 2013 and 2024, private AI investment in the US totaled $471 billion. China committed $119 billion. India's figure was $11.3 billion." "Home to about a billion digitally connected citizens, India cannot afford to be a digital colony," wrote Ajai Chowdhry. Google has recently thrown two 'firebombs', wrote Nilesh Jasani. The first "was its seamless integration of Gemini with its existing services," like Search, Android and Gmail. This competes with OpenAI's ChatGPT (wikipedia). The second is its own chip which "boasts 4,614 T-flops of peak compute power and 192GB of high-bandwidth memory." This is a direct challenge for Nvidia. Meta intends to use Google's chips in its Data centers in 2027 and "Waymo, Alphabet's driverless car unit, is coming to several new cities and just added freeway driving to its taxi service, a feat made possible by the company's enormous research and investment." ET. India is way behind. And yet, "In 1950 - decades before the world woke up to rare earths - India set up Indian Rare Earths Ltd (IREL) to mine and process these strategic minerals." "IREL should have been India's spearhead," but "is a laggard, hobbled by stalled mines, dated technology and a half- vacant board." TOI. We are laggard, starting from scratch. They are bombing head. Can we catch them?     

Helpless rupee.

"Indian rupee breached the 91-per-dollar threshold for the first time on yesterday, pressured by increased hedging activity and portfolio outflows amid a deadlock in trade negotiations between the US and India." "The rupee has fallen more than 6% against the dollar so far in 2025, making it one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies," as "Overseas investors have net sold over $18 billion of local stocks this year." Reuters. "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) dollar-rupee swap will absorb $5 billion from the market and inject an equivalent amounts of rupees, as part of the Central bank's efforts to ensure ample banking-system liquidity to aid transmission of rate cuts," but the three-year forward premiums, which were Rs 6 in March, were being quoted at Rs 8.02-8.18. ET. However, the rupee has strengthened to 90.36 to one dollar as of this morning. xe.com. One dollar was equivalent to Rs 22.74 in 1991 (Bank Bazaar). One reason why the rupee keeps devaluing against the dollar is that inflation has been running at an average of 3.7% per year in the US and at around 9.7% per year in India. worlddata.info. Rising in costs means a gradual decrease in the value of the currency, so a value of Rs 92 against one dollar seems about reasonable. Axis Bank Chief Economist Neelkanth Mishra said, "rupee is likely to depreciate further, and there is no need to panic over the movements in the domestic currency," and is estimated to be around 92-94 to one dollar by 2027. ET. India keeps losing money in foreign trade as well. In 2024-25, India's merchandise exports were $437.42 billion, while Services exports were $383.51 billion for a total of $820.93 billion. Merchandise imports were $720.24, while services imports $194.95 billion, for a total of $915.19 billion. Our trade loss was $94.26 billion. In 2023-24, our trade loss was $78.39 billion. pib.gov.in. As for China, "In 2024, it exported $3.6tn of goods and ran a record trade surplus of $1.1tn - more than the total exports of most major economies. Including Hong Kong, its merchandise exports exceed $4.2tn," wrote Ajay Srivastava. However, "Amazon Inc has pledged to invest $35 billion in the next five years (over and above the $40 billion it has already put into the country." Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion and Google will chip in with $15 billion, for a combined commitment of $67 billion. ET. These promises are spread over many years and geopolitical changes could have significant positive or negative effects, "The extraordinary rise of artificial intelligence has turbocharged data center growth in India, Asia's third largest economy." "Even luxury real-estate developers have joined the bandwagon to build these computing facilities." Problem is that these centers need vast amounts of water and electricity. BBC. "India's per Capita water availability was already 13% below the benchmark of 1,700 cubic meters in 2021, the Observer Research Foundation said in a note date 25 August. ORF projected this would fall to 1,367 cubic meters, almost 20% below the threshold," wrote Shouvik Das. As for electricity production, India is already the proud owner of five topmost polluted cities in the world. wikipedia. The poor rupee will be like a yo-yo. For furriners to play with.  

Divine boon or cash transfers.

"The 2020-2025 period witnessed record-breaking wealth creation, with the 100 wealth creators adding a staggering Rs 148 trillion in market capitalisation." "During this time, wealth creation grew at a remarkable CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 38%, far outpacing the BSE Sensex's CAGR of 21%." ET. "India's initial public offerings have hit a record Rs 1.77 trillion ($19.6 billion), as companies rush to capture the booming investor demand for new shares." "Foreign institutional investors (FII), lured by the growth outlook and relatively stable policy backdrop, remain active participants in IPOs even as they sell an almost record amount of Indian equities." TOI. While investing in IPOs, "Foreign investors pulled out Rs 179.55 billion (USD 2 billion) from Indian equities in the first two weeks of this month, taking the total outflow to Rs 1.6 trillion (USD 18.4 billion) in 2025." "Meanwhile, in the debt market, FPIs (FIIs) withdrew Rs 3.10 billion under the general limit but invested Rs 1.51 billion through the voluntary retention route during the same period." ET. The combined FII selloff and the lack of a trade deal with the US has resulted in the rupee falling to an all-time low of 90.82 to one dollar (xe.com), despite the dollar index falling 1.1% in December. "The index is also down more than 9% this year, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. (Mint). The Nifty may have delivered 10% gains in 2025 but, "India was the worst performing major market globally this year in dollar terms, and has among the most underweight positions in global portfolios." "FII ownership of the Indian equity markets fell to a 15-month low of 16.9% in Q2 FY26 (Jul-Sep)," but "Taken together with mutual funds, individual investors, now account for 18.75% of listed equities - the highest in 22 years," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Retail investors, desperate for quick wealth, are progressively sacrificing their financial security," wrote Dhirendra Kumar. "First goes the emergency fund, which is risked in futures and options (F&)) trading. Next, the children's education corpus gets diverted into speculative cryptocurrency investments. Retirement savings follow...Insurance policies are surrendered, gold is sold and loans are taken ... in the hope of obtaining that elusive divine boon of instant wealth." The bull run in stocks is explained by market buoyancy but it is actually because of very low returns on bank deposits. Till November the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had cut interest rates by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025 (Reuters), so that the "State Bank of India offers 6.25% for a 1-year deposit, which after adjusting for taxes and inflation, leaves a minuscule yield on the table." No wonder, household financial assets have declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2023-24, while investments in equity and mutual funds have jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%, wrote Rajrishi Sanghal. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma said that this bull market is the biggest transfer of cash from the poor to the rich, but it is still better than investing in F&O. At least long term returns will be good. Mint. What if there is a 20-30% drop in stock prices? Will individual investors lose a lot of money? Hope it happens one month before an election. Cash transfers all round. Instant wealth.         

Inequality works.

"About 10 years ago, less than one in 10 of India's poorest households owned a bike or car; now close to half do." Mobile phones have become ubiquitous, while among the bottom 40% of households, ownership of refrigerators has jumped from 2.9% to 22.5% in rural and from 20.9% to 57.9% in urban areas, wrote Richa Gandhi.  But, The World Inequality Report 2026 says that in India, "The top 10% of earners capture about 58% of national income, while the bottom 50% receive only 15%...with the richest 10% holding about 65% of total wealth and the top 1% about 40%." The Wire. Still, "As India has grown richer, a different epidemic has quietly spread - obesity." "At a BMI of just 24, Indians face the same risk of diabetes and heart disease that Europeans do at 30." "Officially, only 5% of Indians are obese, but using a more realistic Indian threshold, nearly 30% may already be economically obese," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Ruchir Agarwal. Are government handouts partly responsible for this impressive rise in ownership of assets? Starting on 1 January 2024, the central government is providing free food grains to 813.5 million Indians every month. It is a massive transfer of Rs 11.80 trillion over five years. pib.gov.in. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22.2% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025, indicating substantial expansion in social security coverage in the country." TOI. "Across India, 118 million adult women in 12 states now receive unconditional cash transfers from their governments." "The transfers range from Rs 1,000 -Rs 2,500 ($12-$30)," which "Women typically spend the money on household and family needs - children's education, groceries, cooking gas, medical and emergency expenses, retiring small debts and occasional small items like gold or small comforts." BBC. That is chump change. During the recent elections in Bihar, "The governing NDA govt transferred Rs 10,000 to roughly 12 million women even as the campaign was on." "What makes this more worrisome is that neither the Centre nor the states are financing these giveaways out of surplus revenues. They are funding them through borrowing," wrote Duvvuri Subbarao. Who cares? The ruling coalition won with a thumping majority. The Hindu. Inequality works. As people have acquired more, "Household debt -to-GDP ratio nearly doubled from 26% in June 2015 to 41.9% in Dec 2024. Stressed unsecured retail debt size is $35-45 billion (Rs 3.07-3.95 trillion)" and "1 in 4 personal loans in 2025 funded holidays, overtaking medical and house renovation." TOI. A huge jump from Rs 1,500 to Rs 10,000. In the next election women will expect at least Rs 15,000. More handouts, more debt, more assets, everyone loves inequality. PM Modi has left for a 4-day trip to Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman. Mint. And, why not?  

We are immune.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is at the hazardous level of 707 this morning in Delhi, with PM10 level at 594 and PM2.5 at 429 mcg/ cubic meter. aqi.in. AQI level between 0 and 50 is good and any level above 100 is harmful for health. airnow.gov. "Uranium levels in Delhi's groundwater have increased, placing the capital third in the country after Punjab and Haryana in the share of contaminated samples." The latest report shows that "13-15% of tested samples in Delhi contain uranium above the permissible limit of 30 ppb, raising concerns about drinking-water safety and public health." TOI. Uranium from natural sources is toxic to kidneys, but "Only about 0.1-6% of the uranium a person ingests will get into the bloodstream through the mouth, stomach and intestines." cdc.gov. Water purifiers using reverse osmosis (RO) remove virtually all minerals from tap water but these are usually used by the middle and upper classes. National Library of Medicine. "Studies estimate that over 55 million Indians fall below the poverty line annually due to healthcare costs." "Families resort to savings, borrowing, or high-interest loans, entrenching them in a debt cycle that can last generations." BW. "Indian households spent over INR 120 billion on healthcare-related expenditure in November 2020," of which "Urban India accounted for 42.3% of the total healthcare-related expenditure in this period, while the remaining 57.7% of the expenditure came from rural India." CEDA. The higher proportion of expenditure in rural areas could be because 63% of the population lived in rural areas in India in 2024. (World Bank). Physical illness is usually visible, mental illness is not. "A recent National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report revealed that in Karnataka alone, 29 men die by suicide everyday. Between 2018 and 2023, the state recorded 63,539 suicides, over three-fourths of them men. Rural men are dying at even higher rates." "In a society where family honor carries enormous weight, men are expected to provide, endure and stay silent." DH. If men stay silent, women would seek help. If they can find it. "For years, women in distress knew the first place to go: Delhi Commission for Women. Walk into Mahila Aayog, and someone will sit across you, calm your nerves and hear you out. Try that now. At its Vikas Bhawan office, ask the guard for Mahila Aayog and he shrugs without even looking up: 'Bandh hai' (shut)." TOI. In 2025, 20 children died in Madhya Pradesh due to cough syrup containing diethylene glycol. "India has arrested the owner of the pharma company behind the contaminated syrup...and launched an investigation." BBC. Just drama to fool the people. Because if the government and regulators had taken action when over 70 children died in The Gambia in between July and October 2023 because of contaminated cough syrup from India (BBC) innocent children would not be murdered in search of profit. Even more ridiculous, "The Uttar Pradesh government has filed an application seeking the withdrawal of charges against all the accused in the 2015 Dadri lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq." The Print. The man was beaten to death in front of the entire village, but no one did it. It's no surprise that thousands of Indians die prematurely everyday. It is a wonder that millions don't. We must be immune. To all poisons.             

Balanced economy.

"India's retail inflation quickened to 0.71% in November on an annual basis as against a record low of 0.25% in October," as "Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, fell 3.91% year-on-year in November." "Vegetable prices declined 22.20%." ET. "Core inflation, however, moderated at the margin to 4.34% in November from 4.41% in October on relatively muted inflation in housing and precious metals, GST cuts are also contributing at the margins." said Teresa John. Since the rate of inflation is well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4% consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate set by the government  (ET), there is room for at least one more rate cut of 25 basis points (bps), agreed economists asked by Reuters. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, (Investopedia) is still above the RBI mandate of 4%. So, should we be pleased that vegetable prices are so far below last year's prices? What about farmers? "Maharashtra has witnessed 781 farmer suicides in first nine months of 2025 due to loans, crop failure and excessive rainfall." "According to the National Crime Records Bureau 2023 data," "Of the 6,669 farmer suicides recorded in Maharashtra so far, 4,150 were farmers and 2,519 agricultural laborers." TOI. The BJP-led coalition, the NDA, won the assembly elections in Maharashtra with a huge majority (wikipedia) because "The state's June budget made an allocation for 25 million women to receive Rs 1,500 ($18) in cash. The gambit seems to have paid off. (ET). If a farmer commits suicides because of unpaid debts, surely the widow will be ever so grateful to receive cash handouts to feed her family? Even though the US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate by 25 bps to its lowest level in three years to 3.5-3.75% (CBS), "The Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar by 4.7% year-to-date in 2025, and over 5.8% in the last one year. In Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) terms, the weakness has been even larger, with a year-to-date weakness at an estimated 8.6% until November, and 1-year weakness at 12.1% (TOI)." "The rupee is Asia's worst performer this year." Because, "steep US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods hurt exports to its biggest market, while also diminishing the appeal of local equities for foreign investors." Reuters. To add to the fun, "After the United States, Mexico has decided to impose tariffs as high as 50% on the import of select goods from India." Tariffs on cars will rise from 20% to 50%, which are "expected to impact shipments worth $1 billion from major car exporters, including Volkswagen and Hyundai." NDTV. Nearly 900,000 Indians have renounced their citizenship in the past five years, the Ministry of External Affairs informed Parliament. "India has seen more than 2 million people give up their citizenship over the past 14 years." ET. This is probably the most lucrative export as India received $135.46 billion in remittances in 2024-25 (newsonair.gov,in). As we get more rupees to the dollar that neutralizes some of the pressure from tariffs. This is perfect balance.        

China's leaders should show they can.

"China's trade surplus topped $1 trillion for the first time as manufacturers seeking to avoid President Donald Trump's tariffs shipped more to non-US markets in November, with exports to Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia surging." "Chinese exports overall grew 5.9% year-on-year in November, customs data showed." Reuters. "China's electric-vehicle industry captured half its domestic industry in just a few years," Chinese legacy automakers dumped gas-guzzlers on Poland to South Africa to Uruguay. While Western countries levied tariffs on heavily subsidized Chinese EVs, "Fossil-fuel vehicles have accounted for 76% of Chinese auto exports since 2020, and total annual shipments jumped from 1 million to likely 6.5 million this year." Reuters. "In the past five years, its export volumes have soared while imports have flatlined. China is swallowing up a growing share of the world's market for manufactured goods. This reveals an uncomfortable truth: Beijing is pursuing a 'beggar thy neighbor' growth model." WSJ. Except for Japan and Bangladesh, the rest of Asia is facing serious disinflation. "One culprit is Chinese overcapacity, which has entrenched deflation domestically. It has also put pressure on prices elsewhere, since 2022 China's export-price index has fallen by 15%, even as exports have risen overall." Asian nations are losing manufacturing jobs. The Economist. In 2020, "Growth in America's trade deficit with China since 2001 has resulted in the loss of nearly 4 million domestic jobs - a quarter of which were in California and Texas - according to a new report from the Economic Policy Institute." US News. China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% year-on-year in November from 0.2% in October, "mainly driven by food prices, while factory-gate deflation deepened, with underlying trend suggesting domestic demand remains weak and unlikely to recover in the near term." Reuters. "China is gripped by an insidious problem that is eroding its economy: It is trapped in a cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits, driving a brutal rat race among workers and fueling a deflationary spiral. This is 'involution'." "Generally, it means excessive competition, but it has become shorthand for a range of maladies, especially deflation and overcapacity." WSJ. While China is producing vast amounts of manufacturing goods it is not producing babies, with the total fertility rate (TFR) at about 1.1, nearly half the replacement level of 2.1 (Britannica). Aggravating the fall in fertility is the male to female ratio. According to the World Population Prospects 2024, there are 44.4 million men in the 24-29 group, which should be on the cusp of procreation, but only 38.4 million women." In the 0-4 age group there are 24.9 million males to 22.5 million females. Asia Sentinel. So the demographic mismatch is going well into the future. "China will impose a value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and devices - including condoms - for the first time in three decades, its latest bid to reverse plunging birth rates that threaten to further slow its economy." ET. Considering Chinese President Xi Jinping has only one daughter (wikipedia), a tax on contraceptives is a spiteful dog in the manger (wikipedia) policy. Instead, the leaders should set an example. If they still can.  

Uncanceled flight.

"For years, IndiGo with a 65% domestic market share has helped Indians realise their dreams of flying," "But last week changed it all: IndiGo canceled at least 2,000 flights because of shortage of pilots after it failed to plan adequately for new rules limiting how many hours they work." Reuters. "The rules include longer weekly rest for pilots (48 hours instead of 36) and tighter limits on night landings (two instead of six) after years of fatigue complaints to the regulator." "India's aviation watchdog introduced the new duty rules nearly two years ago to align with global standards, with airlines meant to adopt them in two phases - in June and November this year." Air India says it has implemented them, IndiGo has admitted failure to do so. BBC. "India's regulators are meant to be quasi-judicial bodies - independent, evidence-driven and powerful enough to discipline the biggest corporations." "In practice, most regulators resemble departments inside ministries, staffed by junior officers who simply cannot stand up to billion dollar incumbents." "Companies bet on getting the rules changed later, because history suggested they would." "When rules are unstable, discretionary and revisable under pressure, firms learn that the real game is not competition or efficiency, but regulatory capture," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Unlike Europe and US, India offers no financial compensation for airline-caused delays." "The 'refund and meals only' solution for even an airline's willful negligence is an open invitation to carriers to behave as though operational responsibility is optional." "Passengers shouldn't be expected to trust a system that demands everything from them - money, patience, silence in adversity - while demanding almost nothing from the industry, barring heavy taxes," wrote Manju V. Indian politicians like to boast that India is the fourth largest economy in the world, with a GDP apparently at $4.19 trillion  (cleartax.in) but campaign on poverty when running for elections. Which means that whatever is classed as luxury, according to their whims, is taxed heavily. Flying is seen as luxury and so airline turbine fuel (ATF) has an excise duty of 11% plus VAT charged by states (ET). ATF makes up 40% of an airline's expenses. Exorbitant airport user fees also add significantly to the cost of flying. ET. Three days ago a fire at a popular night club in the coastal city of Goa killed 25 people. BBC. It seems that the club was in serious violations of building codes and the owners were asked to submit documents and permissions but senior police officers interfered to stop these notices. "These officers even pressured local police to close an FIR" against the club. TOI. What has a nightclub fire got to do with flight cancellations by IndiGo? It appears that the owners of the club, brothers Saurabh and Gaurav Luthra, flew to to Phuket in Thailand within hours after the fire. By IndiGo. TOI. Flights canceled. Revelers roasted. The rich fly away. Helped by officials. Flight uncanceled.    

The bond market decides.

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "voted unanimously to lower the repo rate to 5.25%,..and maintained a neutral stance, suggesting room for further rate cuts. The central bank has cut rates by a total of 125 basis points (bps) since February 2025, the most aggressive since 2019." Reuters. "Another 25 bps, akin to the June cut," "But the effect on market interest rates is likely to be amplified by the nearly Rs 1.5 trillion of liquidity infusion through open market purchases of government securities (Gsecs) and the dollar/rupee buy swap arrangement in December. The measures are expected to soften short term interest rates as well as the 10-year G-sec yields." TOI. Considering the GDP growth of 8.2% in the second (Jul-Sep) quarter and by 8.0% in the first half of the current financial year (pib.gov.in) what was the need, not just of a rate cut, "But also, immediate and extraordinary liquidity support," when the estimated GDP growth for FY26 has been revised up from 6.8% to 7.3% and there is a surplus of Rs 1.5 trillion in systemic liquidity? asked Mythili Bhusnurmath. The unanimous vote indicates that "not one of the external members seems to have any qualms that a further rate cut and liquidity bonanza could be an overdose, endangering RBI's primary mandate of price stability." Maybe they were so instructed, because the World Bank "through a footnote, starkly describes the control that the finance ministry wields over RBI." "The government can remove the governor, deputy governor and directors without justification; give directions to the RBI; supersede its board," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. No Indian will want to lose a cushy government job. Maybe the government wants to push the consumer price index (CPI) inflation, which came in at 0.25% year-on-year in October (pib,gov,in) higher because a high inflation rate will increase GST collections and reduce the value of government debt (Economics Help). Also such a low inflation rate meant the nominal GDP came in at only 8.7% in the second quarter, as the GDP deflator was only 0.5%. "The government had estimated a nominal GDP growth rate of 10.1% in 2025-26 (i.e. real growth plus inflation)." prsindia.org. That is important because tax collections are linked to the nominal GDP. "Once the government estimates nominal GDP growth, it then works out how much tax it expects to collect in the next financial year," and  "Once it knows how much revenue it will collect, it projects the expenditure determining allocations for different ministries, departments and schemes." ET. The budget has estimated the fiscal deficit, that is total government borrowing, for the current year at Rs 1.5689 trillion or 4.4% of GDP. indiabudget.gov.in. With rupee flirting with a level of 90 to the US dollar (investing.com), with a possibility of going even lower (in.investing.com), the price of imports is likely to increase. If the RBI loses control of inflation it could be forced to jack up interest rates. The bond market seems to think so because yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds is back up to 6.568% this morning after dropping a smidgen to 6.500% on 5 December. in.investing.com. This government has till 2029 after partially winning in 2024  (wikipedia) but markets have no horizon. The government can control the RBI but not the bond market. Who will prevail?        

A herd of ghosts.

"The world's largest neutrino detector - Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) in China - delivered its first results last week, sharpening our understanding of the ghost particles that are neutrinos and setting the stage for solving larger cosmic puzzles." "But, for physicists in India - a reminder of a missed opportunity." "We had proposed this [JUNO-like]project in 2006." "We had a big advantage back then," said Naba Mondal, former project director of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO). The Print. Indian politicians have more important things to do. "No constitutional provision deserves repeal more than one imposing Hindi, wrote P Kodanda Rao in 1988." The Print. The dissent is increasingly bitter.  Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, MK Stalin called the central government's three-language formula in the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020 a "Hindi colonialism". "Tamil Nadu will not tolerate Hindi colonialism replacing British colonialism," he wrote. TOI. In February, "Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) cadres,..blackened Hindi lettering on government signboards at multiple locations, including railway stations and post offices." India Today. On 31 October, a seminar at Delhi University, titled "Land, Property and Democratic Rights", was canceled. It was part of a series of lectures running for six decades. The same day "a directive from the Dean of Colleges, Balaram Pani, to principals encouraging students and faculty members to attend the "National Godhan (herd of cows) Summit," according to a copy of an email seen by the CNN." Not surprising, in October,  "At a global summit Elon Musk, Mark Cuban and Eric Schmidt debated the future of AI, energy and defence, India wasn't mentioned even once," said industrialist Harsh Goenka. "We need the urgency, ambition and reform zeal to unleash innovation, scale and efficiency." FE. Unfortunately the so-called smartphones have resulted in addiction to social media among young people in India. "The country's users spend an average of 2 hours, 28 minutes per day on social media, notably higher than the US average of 2 hours, 9 minutes, and far higher than Europe's 1hr, 48 minutes." "In other words, Westerners are turning up their noses and nos, while Indians are plunging headlong into brain rot, sucking in social media slop just as they are with junk food and sugary drinks, while social media giants are picking their pockets," wrote Chiadnand Rajghatta. So the government of India is to export "about 30,000 skilled and aspirational Indian professionals annually," to Romania (pib.gov.in), a country with just over 19 million people and a GDP of $422.5 billion (wikipedia). Neutrinos are subatomic particles. Can't be seen. Ditto democracy. That's why they are known as ghost particles. Who believes in ghosts? A herd, on the other hand...        

Goldilocks ran away.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25%. The MPC also raised the expected rate of growth of the economy to 7.3% from 6.8% and revised the rate of inflation down to 2% from 2.6% in FY26 (1 April 2025-31 March 2026). ET. India's Real GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 (Jul-Sep) of FY 2025-26, while the Nominal GDP grew 8.7% in the same period. The Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) grew 7.9%. pib.gov.in. The Real GDP grew by 7.8%, while the Nominal GDP grew 8.8% in the April-June quarter of FY 2025-26. Which means that the Real GDP grew by 8% in the first half of the current financial year. pib.gov.in. What was the reason for cutting rates to boost the economy when the growth rate is already soaring? India's headline inflation dropped to 0.25% in October 2025. This was down from 1.44% in September 2025 and 6.21% in October 2024. pib.gov.in. The combination of blistering growth rate with stable prices means that the Indian economy is in a "rare Goldilocks" period, said Governor of RBI Sanjay Malhotra. "The RBI also decided to conduct open market operations of Rs 1 trillion ($11.14 billion) to buy bonds this month, and another $5 billion in forex swaps to add liquidity to the banking system and speed up transmission of lower rates. India's benchmark 10-year bond yield dropped nearly 5 bps after the central bank's moves but rebounded thereafter to trade flat at 6.4841%." Reuters. Meanwhile, the rupee closed at 89.959 to one dollar yesterday, having touched 90.167 on 3 December, and down from 85.398 on 3 July 2025. exchangerates.org.uk. India's foreign exchange reserves fell by nearly $1.9 billion to $686.2 billion in the week ending 28 November. NDTV. The value of reserves change with changing exchange rates of foreign currencies and the market price of gold that the RBI holds but the RBI may also be selling dollars to support the rupee, which reduces the amount of rupees in the system. So, on the one hand, the RBI is trying to boost liquidity by cutting rates, buying bonds and a dollar swap and, on the other, it is having to buy rupees by selling dollars. The last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is on 9-10 December (Fed), and according to a majority of 100 economists surveyed by Reuters there was a strong consensus for a 25 basis points reduction by the Fed because of a softer labor market, even though the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose to 2.8% in October from 2.7% in September annually (CNN). If the Fed decides to hold its Funds rate at 3.75-4% set in its October meeting (US Bank) the rupee could come under renewed pressure. As the NEER (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) and the REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) have fallen by 6.8% against a basket of 40 currencies it has partially cushioned the effect 50% tariffs imposed on Indian exports by the US, wrote Somnath Mukherjee. Maybe, but a weaker rupee will increase the price of imports including petroleum. "The country's crude oil imports rose by 4.2% to 242.4 million tonnes (MT) in FY25, according to government data." TNIE. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax in 50% of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. The more the rupee falls, the more will be the cost of crude oil. Will the government cut taxes on retail fuel or pass it on to customers? That will instantly add to retail inflation as transport costs jump. Maybe that's why the bond market is unimpressed by the rate cut by the RBI. What happened to Goldilocks? She ran away. Storynory.   

It's very useful.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi called upon top police officers from across the country to realign policing practices with the national vision of a Viksit Bharat, emphasizing the need to modernise systems, transform public perception of the police and deepen youth engagement." HT. 'Viksit' means an advanced country with a high level of industrial and technological development. Collins. Bharat is India. 'Indian aviation is all about renting as it does not manufacture even a single component, said entrepreneur Ankit Sawant." "Sawant said no pilots are trained in India, no retrofitting is done in India and even the galley carts are imported." BT. On the other hand, there was a four-day convention on gaumutra (cow urine) in September at Jaipur in Rajasthan, where medicines for cancer to constipation from gaumutra were available. The Wire. Technological revolution. But, why blame the police when they are controlled by governments. On 30 June, 2023, during a visit to Delhi University by PM Modi, "The police remained with Abhigyan, the Delhi unit president of the CPIML-Liberation's All India Students Association (Aisa), and Anjali, the DU Secretary of the outfit, in their flat near the campus until well after the Prime Minister had left." The Telegraph. Virtual arrest of two citizens without reason or warrant, surely the police were ordered? Who amended the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) in 2019 to allow arrest of any individual on a charge of terrorism and imprisonment for years without bail for years, without having to provide any proof? On 04 December, the Bombay High Court released former DU professor Hany Babu Tharayil (55) on bail after five years in prison on terrorism charges in Bhima Koregaon case without any trial. TOI. A set up? No explanation or compensation was offered for this state-sponsored terrorism. International organizations have found evidence of malware on the phones of the accused in the case which are cited to keep the accused in prison. The Wire. "Union home ministry data tabled in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday (December 2) has revealed that only 335 persons have been convicted under the draconian UAPA between 2019-23, even as there were 10,440 arrests over this period." Not to be outdone, "From June 2014 through October this year the Enforcement Directorate ((ED) recorded 6,312 cases under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) and secured the conviction of 120 accused...during the same period, according to data tabled in Parliament." The Wire. In 2020, UP police was alleged to have burnt the body of a 19-year old victim of gang rape in the middle of the night without the family's consent. BBC. In 2023, three of the four accused were found not guilty by a court and the fourth was sentenced on a reduced charge. HT. It is not just a perception, people are terrified of the police, the government and of you, Sir. They love the bribes  (pib.gov.in), though. The perception is very useful. You can rule forever. Sir.     

A true friend.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is in New Delhi for his two-day India visit, where he will hold talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi today, aiming to boost trade with the top buyer of Russia's arms and seaborne oil as Western sanctions squeeze their decades-old ties." NDTV. "The visit aims to strengthen the long-standing 'special relationship' between the two nations, with trade, economic cooperation and global security issues taking center stage." ET. To preempt Mr Putin's visit, the German and French ambassadors, Philipp Ackermann and Thierry Mathou and the British High Commissioner Lindy Cameron wrote a piece full of invective - World wants the Ukrain war to end, but Russia doesn't seem serious about peace - in the Times of India. "Russia's unprovoked war of aggression," "Attacks that continue to kill innocent civilians, including children," and "these indiscriminate attacks" "are a systematic choice by Russia to wage its war of aggression with absolute ruthlessness." This rude lack of etiquette in insulting an invited guest, prompted the Ministry of External Affairs to admonish, "We see this [the opinion piece] as very unusual. It is not acceptable diplomatic practice to advise India's foreign relations with a third country. We have taken note of it." The Print. In response, the Russian Ambassador Denis Alipov wrote Europe's 4 Treacheries are Impeding Peace in Ukraine. In 2014, Europe along with Barack Obama facilitated a coup against elected Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych. The neo-Nazi government of Ukraine bombed Russian-speaking Donetsk and Lugansk regions. In 2015, the Minsk Accords brokered by Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande were just to buy time for Kiev to rearm. When talks between Russia and Ukraine "were nearing completion in April 2022, then Boris Johnson arrived in Kiev and dissuaded Zelenskyy from signing the deal." And finally, when US President Donald Trump proposed his 28-point peace plan to end the war  (axios.com), Europe quickly rushed out with an alternate plan full of vague assurances such as "Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist (but could exist as soon as Russia withdraws)," and "NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime (but could be extended temporarily forever)." Even a 5-year old will laugh at this duplicitous proposal by former criminal colonial powers (wikipedia) who ravaged and slaughtered in millions and have never apologized, let alone paid any reparations. Russia has never invaded France, Germany or Britain but the French under Nepoleon invaded Russia in 1812 and Germany under Adolf Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. Britannica. Recurrent famines engineered by the British killed 50-100 million Indians over two centuries. wikipedia. There has been no famine since Independence. British and Australian ships were part of the Task Force 74 (wikipedia) sent to help Pakistan against India in 1971 which resulted in independent Bangladesh. The Soviet Union sent a destroyer accompanied by other ships and nuclear powered submarines to shadow Task Force 74 in the Indian Ocean which turned back. Eurasian Times. Russia has been a steadfast and loyal friend for decades. Europeans are devious, brutal warmongers. It is a no-brainer. Russia is a friend, Europeans are plunderers.      

The rupee at 90.

"Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran yesterday said the government is not losing sleep over the declining rupee, which has breached the 90-level against the US dollar." He expressed hope that it would improve next year. The rupee hit an all-time low of 90.21 against USD). NDTV. "While GDP growth has been stronger-than-expected, punitive US tariffs and weak capital flows have piled pressure on the rupee." "The rupee has fallen 5.3% year-to-date," "Overseas investors have pulled about $17 billion from Indian equities this year," "India's trade deficit has been widening and hit a record $40 billion plus in October," there is no trade deal with the US and "the central bank's reluctance to force the dollar/rupee back down is making speculators more confident." Reuters. Importers may be inclined to buy as many dollars as they can because it can save them money in case the rupee weakens further, whereas exporters would want to delay repatriating their foreign earnings as long as possible to get more in exchange later. It is just common sense. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) buys and sells dollars to support the rupee. India's foreign exchange reserves dropped by $$4.4 billion to $688.1 billion as on 21 November. AIR. Forex reserves reached $702.28 billion on 17 October 2025. TOI. The RBI also sells dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forward market (NDF), which does not need physical delivery of dollars and can be rolled over. (Grokipedia). According to the RBI, the outstanding NDF sales stood at $53.355 billion in August, down from $88.753 billion in February. MC. The RBI makes a profit in buying and selling dollars. Along with the seigniorage it makes from selling rupee coins and notes (Investopedia) it pays a dividend to the government every year. The RBI paid Rs 874.16 billion in 2023, Rs 2.10874 trillion in 2024 and Rs 2.68590 trillion in 2025. Grip Invest. Do the markets sense that the RBI may be nervous about reducing its reserves any further? "Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting a two-day visit to India, where he will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi," and "Delhi and Moscow are expected to sign a number of deals during the visit." BBC. "India wants five more S-400 Triumf air defense squadrons on top of the ones it has already," and "A plan to connect India's Rupay and Russia's Mir payment networks and make the rupee-rouble systems work better so that trade can keep going even as Western sanctions get tighter around Moscow." TOI. So, Mr Modi is showing how contemptuous he is of US President Donald Trump's 50% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil  (Reuters), but is also going to bypass the US dollar to get round sanctions on Russia. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold over $17 billion of Indian stocks till October. CNBC. They may not believe that India's economy grew by 8.2% in the second Quarter (Jul-Sep) and has reached $3.8 trillion. (The Wire). Indians spent over Rs 1 trillion during the festival of Diwali on buying gold and silver. Angel One. The more the rupee falls the more will be the incentive to buy gold at these levels. Now that it has breached 90 could it quickly slide to 100. We may be living in interesting times (wikipedia) in 2026. Without consent.       

The golden Apple.

"India's economy is on track to surpass the $4 trillion mark in the current financial year, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said. Apparently, India passed the $3.9 trillion in March 2025. "India is currently the fifth largest economy in the world." ET. A great relief because, "On the surface, electronics exports surged 19%, led by a robust $2.4 billion in smartphone shipments." With "Apple iPhones accounting for $1.6 billion in October." But, "Most other export categories shrank sharply and several of India's key markets are increasingly dominated by Chinese goods." ET. "Apple has reportedly achieved a record $10 billion (approximately Rs 887.30 billion) in iPhone exports from India during the first six months of the current fiscal year," and, "In FY25, Apple through its vendors produced $22 billion worth of iPhones, of which 80% or $17.5 billion worth of made-in-India iPhones were exported." TOI. All that is nice, but we can claw much, much more out of Apple. "Apple Inc is facing an unprecedented legal challenge that could result in a staggering $38 billion fine in India." "The dispute began in 2022 when Match Group, the parent company of Tinder, and several Indian startups filed complaints with the CCI (Competition Commission of India)," alleging that "Apple forced developers to use its in-app purchase system and charged up to 30% commission." A new law in 2024 empowers the CCI to levy a fine up to 10% of the company's global turnover. semicone.com. Apple has filed an appeal at the Delhi High Court challenging the fine arguing that a fine based on its global turnover would be "manifestly arbitrary, unconstitutional, grossly disproportionate, unjust." Reuters. The CCI is applying the law, which was enacted in 2024, retrospectively to a complaint made in 2022. "Apple cited the CCI's use of the new rules for the first time on November 10 in an unrelated case, where they were retrospectively applied to a violation by the affected company a decade earlier." India has tried this before with humiliating results. In 2020, Cairn Energy "won an international arbitration case against the Indian government over a tax dispute," when a tribunal unanimously "awarded Cairn damages of $1.2 billion plus interest and costs." Reuters. When India refused to pay, Cairn Energy "secured a French court order to seize some 20 government properties in Paris to recover a part of the $1.7 billion due from New Delhi." NDTV. In September 2020, Vodafone announced it had won an international arbitration against India's retrospective tax demand of $2 billion. Reuters. In 2024, instead of applying a new law retrospectively, the government attempted to change the wording of the Goods and Services Act 2017 retrospectively, from "plant or machinery" to "plant and machinery" in a case against Safari Retreats. TOI. The Supreme Court ruled against the government in 2024 and dismissed the review petition in 2025. Grant Thornton. There is another potential flashpoint between Apple and the Indian government. "In a directive.., India's Ministry of Communications mandated that the government's 'Sanchar Saathi' must be preinstalled on all new smartphones sold in India within 90 days." Apple is reportedly refusing to comply. Forbes. All children are probably familiar with "The Goose & the Golden Egg" (Aesop). In this case, an Apple.       

'C' for confusion.

"The latest growth figure for India, clocking in at 8.2% despite an uncertain global economic situation, bodes well for the country's medium-term economic outlook. Combined with unusually low inflation, the numbers suggest something close to a Goldilocks economy - not too hot, not too cold, but (close to) 'just right." A very low inflation rate means the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can cut interest rates and blistering growth will entice foreign investors to invest in India, wrote Nirvikar Singh. Coincidentally, 'Nirvikar' means 'imperturbable'. "India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rose over 18%, in the second quarter (April-September) of the current fiscal year, amounting to $35.180 billion, while inflow from the US doubled to $6.62 billion during the period, according to the latest government data." "FDI equity inflow stood at $16,552 million." ET. This report is confusing either because of language difficulty or a deliberate attempt to confuse readers. Investment into equities or bonds are usually labeled foreign institutional investment (FII) or foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and can be volatile, while foreign direct investment (FDI) is into productive assets such as in plants and machinery and is considered long-term. Angel One. Indians use a different numbering system (wikipedia). The report says 6.62 billion and 16,552 million, which is 16.552 billion, making it difficult to compare. Why? "India's economy grew by 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Jul-Sep), marking a strong acceleration from last year's 5.6% growth for the same period." ET. But, "Just a few days before the release of the GDP data, the IMF quietly released its annual 'Article IV' report on India," which "gave India's national accounts (the system that produces GDP, GVA and related numbers) an overall 'C'." TOI. The IMF gives various reasons, such as the base year is too old, not measuring producer prices and no breakdown of gross fixed capital formation, which is a measure of investment (wikipedia). India has objected saying, "The IMF staff, in its baseline projections, assumes that the higher US tariffs, introduced in August, will persist and weigh on India's outlook in FY26 and FY27. The IMF has projected 6.6% growth in FY26 and 6.2% in FY27." MC. In interviews, "Arun Kumar, a former professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University and Pronab Sen, India's former chief statistician, said that India's GDP is less than reliable." Prof Arun Kumar said that "when the government says it's $3.8 trillion, my estimate is that it is probably still $2.5 trillion," and Pronab Sen said it is "no better or worse than what it was 10 years ago." The Wire. Even if Kumar and Sen are unreasonably pessimistic, why is the government distributing free food grains every month to 813.5 million people for five years, starting 1 January 2024 (pib.gov,in), free domestic gas connections to poor households (wikipedia) and why has "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025." TOI. if the GDP is growing at such a blistering pace? Possibly because GDP claims are to impress foreigners and score over the opposition, while handouts are to win elections, indirectly acknowledging poverty and deprivation. That may explain why the article on investments was deliberately misleading. An example of "godi media" (wikipedia)? Perhaps, the rupee will reveal (TOI) all.