Depending on Trumpism.

Swaminathan Aiyar predicts "a sharp setback for Trumpism" in 2026. In contrast, India "performed brilliantly in the first two quarters of this fiscal year, averaging 8% growth. Inflation is 0.7% and CAD is likely to be a comfortable 1.4% of GDP." "Google, Amazon and Microsoft have announced plans to invest a total of $67.5 billion in new GCCs. Much of this will be invested in New data centers." "Between 2010 and 2025, India filed over 86,000 AI related patents," and "Machine learning dominates the AI patent landscape, while generative AI now accounts for 28% of India's patents, compared to just 6% globally." However, AI patent grant ratio is at a low 0.37% and private sector R&D investment "remains below 0.64% of GDP". AIM. "Microsoft has committed $17.5 billion to AI-related projects in India, while Amazon plans to invest $35 billion over the next five years to scale up AI-powered operations nationwide. Google has pledged $15 billion to develop data centers," and "Meta is setting up a large facility close to Google's proposed site." MC. Data centers need vast amounts of water. "Large data centers can consume up to 5 million gallons per day, equivalent to the water use of a town populated by 10,000 to 50,000 people." eesi.org. In 1951, "Every citizen had more than 5,200 cubic meters of water available annually." That has collapsed to less than 1,500 cubic meters. "By 2050, it is projected to shrink further to around 1,200 cubic meters, dangerously close to the mark that will make the country a water-scarce nation." India Today. "Excessive groundwater extraction in India, over 25% of the world's total, has thrown the planet off balance, literally shifting it from its axis, says a new study." Any worse, and this could lead to severe food and water shortage worldwide. News18. Global beverage giants "like Diageo, Carlsberg and Heineken have to maintain factories in Rajasthan," which has among the highest groundwater extraction in India. "The challenges for the brewers in Rajasthan mirror a wider crisis across India, which holds 17% of the world's population but just 4% of its fresh water." Reuters. "India has nearly doubled the amount of rice it exported over the past decade, with shipments crossing 20 million metric tons in the latest fiscal year." "In the rice-basket states of Haryana and Punjab, groundwater was reachable at around 30 feet a decade ago," "But drainage has accelerated in the last five years and borewells must now go between 80 and 200 feet, according to farmers." Reuters. India's cities are sinking by 4 mm a year putting 1.9 million people and more than 13 million buildings in danger. One of the reasons is groundwater extraction. TOI. If AI companies crash, Trumpism may suffer. In which case, they will have little reason to invest in more centers in India. Investment will drop. But, water will be saved.         

Precautions for 2026.

Forewarned is to be forearmed. With 2026 just a few hours away we need reliable intelligence. Michel de Nostradame (December 1503-July 1566) "is best known for his book Les Propheties (published in 1555), a collection of 942 poetic quatrains allegedly predicting future events." wikipedia. He predicted, "Seven months great war, people dead through evil/ Rouen, Evreux the King will not fail." ET. Rouen is a city in northwestern France, in the prefecture of Normandy and the department of Seine-Maritime. wikipedia. The first Evreux were a family of counts "descended from an illegitimate son Richard 1, Duke of Normandy." wikipedia. So, all we have to do is to look for a rich and powerful man in Rouen, whose mother liked a bit of hanky-panky, and who does not resemble the father mentioned in his birth certificate. "The great swarm of bees will rise by the night ambush," clearly refers to drones. Which points to a rich bastard in Rouen who manufactures drones. Vangeliya Pandeva Gushterova, alias Baba Vanga, (3 October 1911-11 August 1996) was a Bulgarian mystic and healer (wikipedia) who predicted a great war and China taking over Taiwan. "Washington does not recognize or have diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (ROC) government in Taipei," and "This makes Taiwan a rare case where Washington has a security partnership with an entity with which it does not have diplomatic relations." brookings.edu. The US and China may decide to engage in a conflict and not a war, like Operation Sindoor in which Indian pilots were instructed not to target Pakistani military installations or aircraft which led to our aircraft being shot down (HT). Baba Vanga also predicted our first contact with alien life, which is already present on the planet, and that a large alien airship will enter earth's atmosphere. So, if you find little green men at your doorstep, do not be alarmed. They are already here. In human disguise. On 1 July 2025, Comet 3I/Atlas was discovered by a telescope in Rio Hurtado in Chile. It does not follow an orbital path around the sun and its hyperbolic trajectory means it has come from outside the solar system. NASA. This is the third interstellar object in our neighborhood after 1I/Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, leading "Harvard's Avi Loeb to speculate whether it could be extraterrestrial technology." Interesting Engineering. It means ET is spying on us. The Chinese year of the Fire Horse starts on 17 February 2026 and it will be great for Tiger and Dog people, the Goat people will have peace and harmony but the Rat people should wear a goat amulet to "avoid impulsive, high-risk financial decisions." TOI. Valuable advice. Indian astrologers predict strong Mars movement, steady Saturn energy and Jupiter travels through Cancer and Leo. Notably, Aries "will consider getting married very carefully," (better to stay single), Gemini may have problems with neck, arms and sleep (needs new pillow), Virgo's romance may get passionate (contraception advised) and Scorpio may suffer acid reflux (keep antacids handy) TOI. Will 2026 be any better than 2025? Probably not, but now that we know we can arm ourselves with amulets and antacids. Happy New Year.  

Luxury of bottled water.

A few days ago, "The Supreme Court...declined to entertain a PIL (public interest litigation) seeking enforcement of global standards for packaged drinking water, terming it as a fit case of 'luxury litigation' in a country where a large populace lacks access to basic drinking water." TNIE. "People do not have drinking water; the quality of bottled water will come later on," said Chief Justice Surya Kant. "The attitude that just because most Indians are poor, we should not have high standards for human life explains why our roads are dangerous and why trains derail; our standards are low at almost every level." "The poor themselves have higher standards than India has for them. This is why so many of them reject government schools in most states, " and "Some poor and lower-middle-class families spend a considerable portion of their income on sending their kids to private schools," wrote Manu Joseph. Keeping people poor makes them dependent on the government for subsidies. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025,..data released by statistical ministry showed. TOI. That allows the government to dictate to the people. Beggars, after all, can't be choosers. "For decades, the Indian state has communicated less as a facilitator and more as a scolder-in-chief. All-caps circulars that begin with 'WHEREAS' and end with 'penal consequences'." "Notices that seem designed not to inform, but to unnerve," wrote Partha Sinha. While Mr Joseph is right about using poverty for wretched services, he is mistaken about our demand for privacy when he writes "how a class of people who have no qualms about giving their biometric data to the US government for a mere visit tried to sabotage India's biometric identity project, Aadhaar." Firstly, there are millions of Indians who have never visited the US, and have no wish to, but they cannot avoid living in India. Secondly, only humans have a need for privacy, animals, birds and fish are happily naked  (pexels. com) and perform all biological functions in the open. Human beings are born within walls in hospitals, live their entire lives within walls in homes and travel enclosed in walls in cars, trains or planes (freepik.com). Even destitute refugees, fleeing the civil war in Sudan, have constructed flimsy hovels (istockphoto.com), which will provide little protection from the weather, but do provide privacy. Saying that Indians do not need privacy is saying that Indians are animals. Indeed, humans are animals, in the same group as primates - monkeys and apes. Australian Museum. The problem is that humans have the right to kill other animals, birds and fish. "Every year in the United States, approximately 9 billion 'broiler' chickens are killed for their flesh." (roosterhaus.org). That is 17,000 chickens killed every minute, 300 every second. There are recipes to cook even the deadly poisonous rattlesnake. Insidehook. Equating Indians with animals by denying them privacy is the very reason why potholes claimed 2161 lives in 2023 (TOI) and diarrhoea, which is primarily due to dirty water, kills aound 300,000 children every year (IJCM). Air pollution has made Delhi famous as the most polluted capital city in the world (CNN) but the Union government asserted in Parliament that "there is no conclusive evidence establishing a direct link between higher air pollution levels and lung disease (HT)." Poor people are vote bank (wikipedia). Privacy will provide better services. To all.         

Protecting hydrocarbons.

"Donald Trump's sanctions on Russian crude majors may have the effect of India's oil imports from Russia dropping to a four year low in January 2026." "While the 50% tariffs don't seem to have impacted India's imports of Russian crude, the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil announced in October have forced Indian refiners to look for alternative sources." TOI. "In H1 FY26 (April-September), India's crude imports from Russia declined 14% year-on-year to about $23.1 billion." But, "In October 2025, the US emerged as India's fourth-largest crude supplier, overtaking the UAE, with deliveries of about 647,000 bpd." FE. As one of the founders of the Non-Aligned Movement (Britannica), we Indians are experts at balancing the superpowers. As a result, "In the first 10 months of 2025, Russian spirits producers shipped approximately 520 tonnes of spirits, including vodka, gin, whiskey, and liqueurs, worth USD 900,000 to India, this is three times higher in weight and four times higher in monetary terms than the same period last year," wrote Vedomosti. The chemical formula of ethyl alcohol or ethanol, which is consumed for celebration, is C2H5OH. wikipedia. We have just substituted one hydrocarbon for another. We do not take orders from the US. Especially after a few. Speaking of shipping, "India will commission the third indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, INS Aridaman, soon, the Navy Chief said." INS Arihant was the first home-made nuclear submarine under the SSBN project. INS Arighat was the second. SSBN stands for 'ship submersible ballistic nuclear'. This Week. In July, "India and the United Kingdom have signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a bilateral free trade agreement marking a major milestone in their long-standing partnership." pib. gov.in. Sadly, the import duty on Scotch will not come down soon. "While import duty will come down from 150% to 75%, it is unlikely to happen until at least the second half of 2035." TOI. To contain their disappointment Indians drank more than 440 million 9-liter cases, a commendable 7% rise in consumption of total beverage alcohol (TBA) during the January-June 2025 period. Within spirits whisky grew 7% to 130 million 9-liter cases, vodka grew 10%, rum 2% and gin 3%. ET. "India and the European Union (EU) reaffirmed their shared ambition to conclude negotiations on the much-awaited free trade by the end of this year." ET. "The EU wants India to lower import duties on cars, wine and spirits to boost trade." India Today. We can look forward to increasing supplies of famous brands and have the submarines to guard them. "All animals are strictly dry, They sinless live and swiftly die. But sinful, ginful, rum-soaked men, Survive for three score years and ten," wrote the late Khushwant Singh. With butter chicken. Bliss.   

They should be grateful.

"The arrival of nearly 10,000 Indian workers, who queued up at an employment registration center in Moscow last week," is one of the 16 agreements signed with Russia during President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this month, one of which, "but also perhaps its most significant - was the Labor Mobility Agreement, which establishes a legal framework for systematic recruitment of skilled Indian workers - IT, construction, healthcare - to address Russia's gigantic labor shortages." Mint. "In 2025, Indian workers emerged as one of the most debated subjects in global economic and political debate." "By mid-2025, a broader anti-Indian worker sentiment had become noticeable across parts of the Western world." ET. Not just Russia, "Romania has expressed its readiness to create a pathway to employ 30,000 skilled Indian professionals every year." newsonair.gov.in. In July, three Indians were kidnapped in Mali, most probably by the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). "According to government data, some 400 Indians live in Mali." BBC. In February, "Nigerian police have rescued three Indian sailors who were kidnapped from a cargo ship off the coast of Equatorial Guinea, a rare success story in its fight against piracy." Reuters. In April, "Five Indian citizens were kidnapped in western Niger during an attack...by armed men that also killed a dozen soldiers." All the men were from Jharkhand and were "working for an Indian company providing services to Nigers' Kandadji dam project." Reuters. The Indians must have been well protected if 12 soldiers were killed during the attack. In June, three Indian nationals were rescued from hostage-takers in Iran by Iranian police. The men were from Punjab, where "A local travel company had promised them lucrative jobs in Australia." TOI. In December, "An Odisha man had been kidnapped by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in war-torn Sudan, and was held captive for 40 days. Following the intervention of the Indian Embassy and other international agencies, the 36-year-old was released and returned home." TIE. "The number of Indian nationals forcibly removed from Canada this year is on track to surpass the record number that was logged in 2024." "Last year, 1,997 Indians were subject to forced removals by Canadian authorities." HT. Earlier this month, "Union External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told the Rajya Sabha...that since January 3,258 Indian nationals have been deported by the United States, the highest figure for any year since 2009." The Hindu. But the record goes to Saudi Arabia. "Saudi Arabia, not the United States, deported the highest number of Indians in 2025." "More than 24,600 Indians were deported from 81 countries during the year, with Saudi Arabia alone accounting for over 11,000." ET. Americans are angry at Indians taking jobs from the locals, especially because Indians got over 70% of H-1B visas in the last fiscal year. TIE. Indians in the US are targets of racial attacks because they are stealing American jobs, made worse by social media, wrote Chidanand Rajghatta. That is not fair. In fact, Indians are creating many jobs for local law enforcement agencies who identify illegal migrants for deportation, are needed to rescue Indians who have been kidnapped and for transporting them back to India. We are keeping the world busy. They should be grateful. For creating jobs.

Profiting from the trinity.

"India's foreign exchange reserves rose sharply by USD 4.36 billion to USD 693.32 billion for the week ending December 19," "largely driven by the RBI's USD/INR buy-sell swap auction worth USD 5 billion on December 16 to inject liquidity into the banking system." Zee. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) net sold $11.87 billion in the forex market in October to arrest the rupee slide against the US dollar," but "The Indian rupee depreciated against the greenback in November, pressured by the strengthening of the dollar, muted foreign portfolio inflows and uncertainty surrounding the India-US trade deal." NDTV. In addition, "Data from the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL),..shows that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have withdrawn Rs 1.6 trillion from Indian equities so far this year." TOI. They would have repatriated this money in their home currencies. "Many Indians looking to transfer money overseas are facing tightened scrutiny from high street banks, demanding to provide detailed proof behind the origin of the funds. This comes as the rupee slides against the US dollar and many rush to move their funds abroad." TOI. So much for internationalisation of the rupee, "aiming to reduce reliance on foreign currencies and position the rupee as a stable international medium of exchange." ET. A currency is a medium of transaction and must be freely exchangeable for it to be used for international trade. For example: "As of December 31, 2024, there were 55.4 billion notes of US currency valuing around $2.32 trillion in circulation, with an estimated half of that circulating outside the US." Investopedia. So, over $1 trillion in dollar notes are being used by foreigners without any restriction by the US central bank. However, despite so much foreign exchange flowing out of India, our reserves have fallen just a little - from $702.28 billion on 24 October (MC) to $693.32 on 19 December. The rupee has fallen from 87.7403 against one dollar on 23 October to 89.7460 today, briefly falling to 90.9489 on 17 December. yahoo. "India and Indonesia have been among the hardest hit," "but the degree of depreciation highlights a gap; the rupee has fallen 4.35% so far this year, compared with a 3.98% decline in the rupiah." MC. On 5 December the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, while projecting a 7.3% growth rate for the GDP in 2025-26 and CPI inflation at 2%, with core inflation, excluding gold, at 2.6%. ET. "In a surprise move, the RBI on 23 December said it will ramp up liquidity operations next week and in January with large-scale open market operations (OMOs) of Rs 2 trillion and a dollar-rupee buy/sell swap auction, amid tight systemic liquidity and sustained pressure on the rupee. Mint. In short, the RBI is selling dollars to support the rupee, which pulls rupees out from the market, and then buys dollars from banks for a fixed period to inject rupees back into the market. That means it is fighting the 'impossible trinity' which says that any central bank can control any two, but not all three, of - a fixed foreign exchange rate, free capital movement and an independent monetary policy (wikipedia). On top of that the RBI is expected to transfer enormous profits to the government. Last year it transferred Rs 2.68 trillion. newsonair.gov.in. We shall soon find out how much the Budget demands next year. A weak rupee should increase the price of imports, including oil. Inflation could jump if fuel prices spike and high prices could force the rupee weaker. Can the RBI support the rupee, keep its reserves and still pay the government an eye-watering dividend? Can it make the impossible trinity possible? That may make it a candidate for the Nobel Prize in Economics. Wow.  

Living in the past.

2025 was a year of living in the past. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking at the Ramnath Goenka lecture in Delhi, accused the Congress of advancing the ideas of Thomas Babington Macaulay and perpetuating a 'colonial mindset' in India." ABP. Macaulay served on the Supreme Council in India from 1834 to 1838 and died in 1859 at the age of 59 years. wikipedia. Mr Modi first came to power by winning the 2014 general election, with 282 seats, giving his party the BJP absolute majority. wikipedia. Mr Modi has held absolute power for over 11 years, yet he blames Macaulay who was in India for only 4 years. The other boogeyman used by Mr Modi to terrify his followers is India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, repeatedly attacking him and members of his family for all the ills of India. The Print. A few days ago, Mr Modi "launched a fierce attack on Jawaharlal Nehru and Congress during the Parliamentary discussion on Vande Mataram, accusing the party of yielding to the Muslim League and weakening national sentiment." TOI. In an unnecessary waste of time, Mr Modi accused the Congress of removing "important stanzas" from the original song during its 1937 Faizabad session. TOI. Vande Mataram was written by Bengali poet and writer Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay (1838-1894) and set to music by Rabindranath Tagore. wikipedia. In his speech Mr Modi referred to "Bankim Da" (Da means elder brother), to which TMC MP Saugata Roy objected, "You are saying Bankim Da? You should say Bankim Babu." India Today. Bengalis are proud of their culture. "By misapplying the suffix, he didn't just make a linguistic mistake, he validated TMC's accusation that he is 'grotesquely alien' to Bengal's cultural consciousness," wrote Aparna Bhattacharya. While Mr Modi is trying to appropriate Bengali icons to win Bengali votes in next year's election to the West Bengal Legislative Assembly to be held between April and May 2026 (wikipedia), the BJP's Karimganj unit in Assam accused a Bengali Congress leader of treason for humming two lines from "Amar Sonar Bangla, Ami To May Bhalobashi" (My Golden Bengal, thee I love) written by another Bengali icon Rabindranath Tagore (HT) and appropriated by Bangladesh as its national anthem. "The Assam government...has asked Assam police to slap a case of sedition on the senior Congress leaders singing Bangladesh's national anthem." ET. In delicious irony, the sedition law was drafted by Thomas Macaulay in 1837 and adopted into the Indian Penal Code in 1860. wikipedia. To add insult to injury, BJP MP from Karnataka asserted that India's national anthem 'Jana Gana Mana', also by Tagore, "was originally written to honor the British. HT. In fierce opposition to Mr Modi's three languages formula in the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin wrote in English, "Tamil Nadu will not tolerate Hindi colonialism replacing British colonialism." TOI. Nehru will always be remembered as creating a Constitution for India, establishing higher educational institutions, engineering factories, keeping the army separate from politics  (HT) and establishing democracy. What will Mr Modi legacy be? A saviour of Hindus or just a "name-changer" megalomaniac, obsessed with staying in power forever? The past has passed. Let it rest.      

Make merry, regardless.

"2025 was the year of trade deals, and India just aced it. When US President Donald Trump said no to win-win trade deals, imposing coercive tariffs on India," "New Delhi moved swiftly to conclude trade agreements with New Zealand, Oman and the United Kingdom," showing "firmness with major powers applying pressure, and flexibility with partners willing to engage on mutually respectful terms." ET. "When Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, expectations in India were cautiously high." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's early visit to Washington on Feb 12 was read as a signal," and "Discussions on a bilateral trade deal followed and talks on doubling trade to $500 billion by 2030 briefly revived optimism." ET. Mr Modi was put up at "Blair House, also known as the President's Guest House." "Blair House actually comprises four contiguous buildings, forming a complex of 70,000 square feet (6,500 square meters) - larger than the White House itself - including 119 opulently decorated rooms dedicated to welcoming foreign leaders." NDTV. Alas, the bonhomie was not to last. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India, including a punitive 25%. "The tariffs - among the highest in the world - include a 25% penalty for transactions with Russia that are a key source of funds for its war in Ukraine." "The tariff setback has sent the Indian government into a firefighting mode." BBC. On 22 April, terrorists shot 26 men at Pahalgam in Kashmir, one of whom was Christian, one was a Muslim pony ride operator and the rest were Hindu men, 20 of whom who were humiliated by being forced to reveal whether they were circumcised or not. wikipedia. Following this atrocity, India launched operation Sindoor on 8,9 and 10 May, destroying terrorist bases within Pakistan. pib.gov.in. Sindoor is vermilion applied to the head by married Hindu women, hence Operation Sindoor was meant as punishment for wiping it off. During the Monsoon session of Parliament, Mr Modi "hailed Operation Sindoor as a 'Vijay Utsav' (victory celebration) for the nation. While India has claimed that Pakistan begged for peace following Operation Sindoor, Trump claims to have stopped a war between India and Pakistan for the 60th time and thus saving 10 million lives. TNIE. Both Mr Modi and Trump are adamant in claiming credit for stopping the conflict and so, in September, Mr Modi canceled his speech at the United Nation General Assembly and sent our External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. ET. He also skipped the ASEAN summit in October to avoid Trump who attended. ISAS. Today is 25th December. "They said there'll be snow for Christmas, They said there'll be peace on earth," sang Greg Lake. Snow may have melted due to global warming and peace seems far away. Make merry nevertheless. Merry Christmas.

Doom or boom?

"The US economy expanded at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter as consumer spending, exports and government spending all grew." The personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) grew 2.8% annually in the July through September quarter compared to 2.1% in the second quarter, and core PCE, after stripping out volatile food and fuel prices rose 2.9% compared to 2.6% in the Apr-Jun quarter. Despite rising inflation, "Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of US economic activity," jumped 3.5% compared to 2.5%. PBS. Consumer spending increased to $16589.10 billion in the third quarter from $16445.70 in the second. TE. Consumers are spending despite pessimism about the economy. "The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December from an upwardly revised 92.9 in November," as "households grew more anxious about high prices, trade levies and job prospects." TOI. "The latest figures from the Labor Department showed prices rose 2.7% over the 12 months to November. That pace was down from 3% in September and lower than many analysts had expected." BBC. The US Federal Reserve did cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% to 3.75% in December. yahoo. Suprisingly, Prof Nouriel Roubini, who has been labeled "Dr Doom" (wikipedia), because of his gloomy prediction of a global debt crisis leading to stagflation, is unexpectedly optimistic about the US economy. "The US economy's potential will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%. The reason: America is the world leader in 10 of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech," he wrote in May 2025. Again he wrote, "Among other things, it has been said that higher tariffs will cause a US and global recession;...that America's fiscal and current account deficits will become unsustainable;...and that the dollar will sharply weaken over time." But he expects that "a combination of market discipline, Trump's more sensible advisors and Federal Reserve independence will prevail," and "potential annual growth is likely to increase from 2% to 4% by the end of the decade." Brave, because "JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has cautioned that a US recession could still occur in 2026," although "economic indicators, such as the Sahm Rule, which currently show little risk of a recession." TOI. "The US could turn into a zombie economy if it's not careful," warned Allison Schrager. Zombie or booming economy?     

Lifting not heavy enough.

"India is suffering from one of its most worrying slowdowns in capital formation in more than a decade." "Our ability to build new factories, expand infrastructure and adopt new technologies is weakening," wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri. "Gross capital formation includes acquisitions less disposals of produced assets for purposes of fixed capital formation, inventories or valuables. This indicator is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)." World Bank. Thus it is an indication of new investment which will lead to increased production and job creation. Capital rises when households save more, these savings are lent to companies which use this to increase production. In India, "Household savings have fallen from 23% of GDP in 2011 to around 18% today," and there is a shift away from banks into gold and real estate. India's gross fixed capital formation has fallen from 34% of GDP to about 30% today, compared to China's 41%, and private corporate investment is at 10% of GDP, down from 27% in 2007-08. Of course, in absolute values India's GDP has expanded almost four-fold in the last decade. Nominal GDP, or GDP at current prices, in 2011-12 was estimated at Rs 82.33 trillion, whereas, "Nominal GDP...is estimated to attain a level of Rs 330.68 trillion in 2024-25". pib.gov.in. India is now the world's fifth largest economy with a GDP estimated at $4.13 trillion behind Japan at $4.28 trillion and higher than the UK at $3.96 trillion. Forbes.  Unfortunately, "India's blistering growth has a quality problem. GDP is speeding ahead at 8% in the world's fifth-largest economy but the government is doing the heavy lifting on investment." "Why aren't Indian companies investing? The simple answer is weak demand. Capacity utilisation, a measure of how much firms are using existing production capabilities, is below 75%, giving companies little confidence to put up fresh investment." Reuters. In September 2025, "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called on the Indian industry to overcome its hesitation and significantly increase investment." Mint. But, how heavy is the government's lifting? "Budgeted capital expenditure (capex) of the Centre rose to over 3% of GDP from 1.7% a decade ago." However, "A significant portion of it has been in the form of financial transfers by way of equity infusions and loans to public sector enterprises (PSEs), state governments and other institutions." Such transfers may not be used to create new assets. "Why is it a big concern? When capital expenditure is inflated by misclassification or funds are diverted to cover losses and debt, it masks underlying fiscal strains," wrote Shruti Gupta. India is the fastest growing major economy and yet, "It can attract much more foreign investment, but it will not." Because, "Reforms create losers in the short run, while benefits accrue much later." So, "If 6.5% growth is enough to secure re-election, why risk pursuing 8% growth that could alienate farmers, labor unions and domestic big business," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. To sustain growth India needs the private sector to increase investment significantly, but private companies are shy to invest unless demand increases, demand cannot increase without higher employment and employment depends on much more new capacity. A classic chicken and egg situation. wikipedia. Foreigners wait and watch.  

All for God.

"At least 15 people were killed on Sunday 14 December as two gunmen opened fire at Australia's Bondi Beach, New South Wales Police said, in an attack that targeted a Jewish event celebrating the first night of Hanukkah." "Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the attack 'an act of pure evil'." ABC. Pure rubbish. "The Palestinian religious, academic, and political elites teach an ideology of virulent hatred of Jews. The killing of Jews is presented both as a religious obligation and as necessary self-defense for all humankind." icfa.org. It was an attack of religious hatred. The Bondi beach attack was clearly a copy of the attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, also during a Jewish festival. wikipedia. Calling it "evil" is an evasive shrug when, "Australia recognized the state of Palestine in September 2025, contributing to international momentum towards a two-state solution, a ceasefire in Gaza and release of Israeli hostages." dfat.gov.au. A ceasefire to give Hamas an opportunity to rearm, and the release of Israeli hostages tagged on last as a handout. It is not just the Muslims, hatred of Jews is ingrained in Christianity. (Pontius) Pilate said to them, "What then shall I do with Jesus who is called the Christ?" They (meaning Jews) said to him, "Let him be crucified." Then Pilate washed his hands saying, "I am innocent of the blood of this just Person." And all the people answered and said, "His blood be on us and on our children." Matthew 27. And so, "At times, it suited the Christian rulers to allow their Christian subjects to 'riot', that is, to enter Jewish homes and to rob, rape, and kill Jews at will, with no punishment by the rulers." "The word was 'pogrom' and it meant a riot by Christians, the purpose of which was to kill Jews, in the cruelest ways, with the quiet sanction of the state," wrote David Blumenthal. On the other hand, "Muslims respect and venerate Jesus Christ. They consider him to be one of Almighty God's greatest messengers to humankind." "Furthermore, his mother Mary is regarded as one of the most pure and exalted women of all creation." Muslim Unity Center. And so, "In Islamic tradition, Eissa (Isa) is a revered prophet and Messiah, son of Maryam (Mary). The name is widely used across the Muslim world." Eissa is the Arabic form for Jesus. Wisdom Library. The success of Muslims and Christians cooperation in eradicating Jews has meant that in 2020, there over 2,521 million Christians, almost 1,899 million Muslims and a tiny total of 14.8 million Jews in the world. Britannica. This camaraderie between Muslims and Christians against Jews was probably why university students across the US, Europe, UK, Australia and Canada came out in droves in support of Hamas and Palestinians. wikipedia. Anthony Albanese may be sincere in believing that supporting a Palestinian state will bring peace with Israel and Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah and Iran will accept that Jews also have a right to exist. "It's a part of who I am, my upbringing," he said when asked about the Catholic faith. cathnews.com. Albanese was booed when attending a vigil for the victims on Bondi Beach. Fox. Justifying slaughter. In the name of God. Astounding.             

Worst form of tax.

"A recent Morgan Stanley report estimates our (Indians') private gold hoard at 35,000 tonnes - among the world's biggest. And it keeps growing," wrote Nilesh Shah. Why is it a problem? Because apparently it is "unproductive as it lies dormant in the parallel economy." If this gold is unearthed it will provide i. additional tax revenue to the government, ii. inject liquidity into the hands of businessmen, iii. strengthen RBI's balance sheet, and iv. trigger a sovereign rating upgrade. How to grab people's gold? RBI will buy 65% at market rate and 35% will be held for 29 years without any interest. At Independence in 1947, one dollar was equivalent to Rs 3.3 and was at Rs 32.43, 30 years back in 1995. (bookmyforex), while this morning one dollar buys Rs 89.58 (xe.com), which is almost half the value. So, Mr Shah is suggesting that the government grab our gold and return worthless paper after 30 years. Without interest. Indians have been buying gold for thousands of years. "Even the poorest people in India buy gold, saving a little each week to buy a gram at a time." BI. These are people who do not earn enough to pay income tax but pay GST when they buy gold ornaments (MMTC). To hold 35% of the value of their gold for 30 years without interest is extreme financial repression. "Gold protects against inflation and currency fluctuation," it can be used for borrowing money in an emergency and it stays in the family. Muthoot Finance. Gold is generally considered to be fungible and can be exchanged for money at any time (Investopedia), unlike investments in property and mutual funds. Shares can become worthless if the company goes bankrupt and only Rs 500,000 in bank deposits is insured (RBI). which would be equivalent to only $5,587 at today's exchange rate. "If gold were an 'irrational' investment, it should have led to divestments by central banks. Instead, advanced economies seem to be hoarding gold while emerging markets with superpower aspirations appear to be raising their gold stakes," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) transferred 64 tonnes of gold bullion back to India. "As of September-end, out of the total gold holdings of 880.8 tonnes, the RBI maintained 575.8 tonnes within India, whilst 290.3 tonnes remained in the custody of the Bank of England and Bank of International Settlements." TOI. Veteran market participant, Siddhartha Bhaiya "sounded a sharp warning on Indian equities, calling the current market a 'bubble of epic proportions' rather than a healthy bull phase." MC. If the market falls, mutual funds will also lose valuation. The government collects 51% of the net revenue as tax on Equity Arbitrage Finds and "Additionally, if you also include 27% paid by the other side of the trade (counterparty), the governments total share rises to around 78% (51%+27%) of the total returns generated," complained Mr Shah. He wants rich shareholders protected and loot the poor of their little gold savings. Male villagers in Bihar who were paid Rs 10,000 into their accounts before the assembly election are refusing to return the money, saying "First return our votes to get back money," in a clear proof of vote buying by the government. TOI. The government will love Mr Shah's scheme. Loot their gold and give handouts to the poor to get their votes. Hope the poor don't fall for it. Brazen robbery.           

Heat from water.

"The global transition to electric vehicles is beginning to unravel," as "The European Commission backed away from what had been the world's most aggressive timeline for phasing out internal combustion-engines, granting manufacturers more time to move off gasoline. A day earlier, Ford Motor Co announced a $19.5 billion in charges tied to the retreat from an electric strategy it vowed to go all in on eight years ago." ET. Europe's retreat may have been forced by Chinese legacy automakers "flooding the world with fossil-fuel vehicles they couldn't sell at home." "Fossil-fuel vehicles have accounted for 76% of Chinese auto exports since 2020, and total annual shipments jumped from 1 million to likely more than 6.5 million this year." Reuters. Reliable electricity supply supports economic growth and constraints are a problem in developing countries. "Rich countries hadn't faced these questions because deindustrialization kept electricity demand flat or falling for the past decades despite economic growth. Now the rise of AI, rapid sales of electric cars and broader electrification of most economic sectors is causing even rich countries to panic." ET. As a result, "Global coal demand reached a record high in 2025 but is expected to decline by 2030 as renewables, nuclear power and abundant natural gas squeeze its dominance in power generation, the International Energy Agency said." Reuters. Increased use of coal is disastrous for the global climate. Hydrogen is the cleanest fuel. Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water molecules using renewable energy. "China accounts for "over half of the roughly 506,000 metric tonnes of green hydrogen production capacity in operation globally right now. A further 2.86 million tonnes is under construction worldwide, with 45% of the total in China." Blue hydrogen is produced by splitting fossil gas and then "pumping the waste carbon dioxide underground to drive oil out of depleted wells." Gray hydrogen is "the most polluting form, made from unabated fossil gas, coal and refinery products," wrote David Fickling. India's "renewable energy capacity surged past 200 gigawatts (GW). By 2030, it hopes to scale up renewables to 500 GW," wrote Sayantan Bera. The situation is precarious because, "A new study by six Indian scientists finds that over the past three decades, sunshine hours - the time direct sunlight reaches the Earth's surface - have steadily declined across most of India, driven by clouds, aerosols and local weather." This could cost a loss of $245-835 million in lost solar power generation. BBC. Germany is building giant heat pumps to supply heating to 40,000 homes. Two meter-diameter pipes will suck up 10,000 liters of water per second from the River Rhine and then return it once the heat from the water has been harvested. BBC. India is one of the hottest countries in the world. If Germany can harvest heat from its cold rivers, how much more can India harvest from more than 400 rivers (wikipedia) that flow across our land. And generate electricity from that heat. Wouldn't that be better than hydroelectricity from dams across rivers? And a lot cheaper.            

Just starting.

"Google is set to invest a staggering $6 billion in a 1-GW data center in Andhra Pradesh." "Notably, $2 billion of this investment is earmarked for developing renewable energy capacity to power the center." Sify is also setting up a center in Andhra Pradesh which "involves an investment of $1.9 billion for a 550 MW data center." "Today, we are announcing a landmark commitment: our largest investment in India to date totaling approximately $15 billion over the next five years (2026-2030)." "This AI hub is a multi-faceted investment combining powerful gigawatt scale data center operations, new large scale energy sources and an expanded fiber-optic network." blog.google. Not to be left behind, "Reliance Industries plans to set up a 1-gigawatt AI data center in India's Andhra Pradesh" and "Reliance's planned data center will operate as a twin to its gigawatt-scale data center in Jamnagar city in Gujarat state." Reuters. "Amazon.com Inc has pledged to invest $35 billion in India over the next five years (over and above the $40 that it has already put into the country)," while "Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion in India, its chief executive Satya Nadella said." ET. "From cloud to search and messaging to social media, we remain tethered to US platforms. All our data sits in the cloud and with our vendors. On the hardware side - servers, laptops, networking gear and semi-conductors - we are reliant on China." "Between 2013 and 2024, private AI investment in the US totaled $471 billion. China committed $119 billion. India's figure was $11.3 billion." "Home to about a billion digitally connected citizens, India cannot afford to be a digital colony," wrote Ajai Chowdhry. Google has recently thrown two 'firebombs', wrote Nilesh Jasani. The first "was its seamless integration of Gemini with its existing services," like Search, Android and Gmail. This competes with OpenAI's ChatGPT (wikipedia). The second is its own chip which "boasts 4,614 T-flops of peak compute power and 192GB of high-bandwidth memory." This is a direct challenge for Nvidia. Meta intends to use Google's chips in its Data centers in 2027 and "Waymo, Alphabet's driverless car unit, is coming to several new cities and just added freeway driving to its taxi service, a feat made possible by the company's enormous research and investment." ET. India is way behind. And yet, "In 1950 - decades before the world woke up to rare earths - India set up Indian Rare Earths Ltd (IREL) to mine and process these strategic minerals." "IREL should have been India's spearhead," but "is a laggard, hobbled by stalled mines, dated technology and a half- vacant board." TOI. We are laggard, starting from scratch. They are bombing head. Can we catch them?     

Helpless rupee.

"Indian rupee breached the 91-per-dollar threshold for the first time on yesterday, pressured by increased hedging activity and portfolio outflows amid a deadlock in trade negotiations between the US and India." "The rupee has fallen more than 6% against the dollar so far in 2025, making it one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies," as "Overseas investors have net sold over $18 billion of local stocks this year." Reuters. "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) dollar-rupee swap will absorb $5 billion from the market and inject an equivalent amounts of rupees, as part of the Central bank's efforts to ensure ample banking-system liquidity to aid transmission of rate cuts," but the three-year forward premiums, which were Rs 6 in March, were being quoted at Rs 8.02-8.18. ET. However, the rupee has strengthened to 90.36 to one dollar as of this morning. xe.com. One dollar was equivalent to Rs 22.74 in 1991 (Bank Bazaar). One reason why the rupee keeps devaluing against the dollar is that inflation has been running at an average of 3.7% per year in the US and at around 9.7% per year in India. worlddata.info. Rising in costs means a gradual decrease in the value of the currency, so a value of Rs 92 against one dollar seems about reasonable. Axis Bank Chief Economist Neelkanth Mishra said, "rupee is likely to depreciate further, and there is no need to panic over the movements in the domestic currency," and is estimated to be around 92-94 to one dollar by 2027. ET. India keeps losing money in foreign trade as well. In 2024-25, India's merchandise exports were $437.42 billion, while Services exports were $383.51 billion for a total of $820.93 billion. Merchandise imports were $720.24, while services imports $194.95 billion, for a total of $915.19 billion. Our trade loss was $94.26 billion. In 2023-24, our trade loss was $78.39 billion. pib.gov.in. As for China, "In 2024, it exported $3.6tn of goods and ran a record trade surplus of $1.1tn - more than the total exports of most major economies. Including Hong Kong, its merchandise exports exceed $4.2tn," wrote Ajay Srivastava. However, "Amazon Inc has pledged to invest $35 billion in the next five years (over and above the $40 billion it has already put into the country." Microsoft will invest $17.5 billion and Google will chip in with $15 billion, for a combined commitment of $67 billion. ET. These promises are spread over many years and geopolitical changes could have significant positive or negative effects, "The extraordinary rise of artificial intelligence has turbocharged data center growth in India, Asia's third largest economy." "Even luxury real-estate developers have joined the bandwagon to build these computing facilities." Problem is that these centers need vast amounts of water and electricity. BBC. "India's per Capita water availability was already 13% below the benchmark of 1,700 cubic meters in 2021, the Observer Research Foundation said in a note date 25 August. ORF projected this would fall to 1,367 cubic meters, almost 20% below the threshold," wrote Shouvik Das. As for electricity production, India is already the proud owner of five topmost polluted cities in the world. wikipedia. The poor rupee will be like a yo-yo. For furriners to play with.  

Divine boon or cash transfers.

"The 2020-2025 period witnessed record-breaking wealth creation, with the 100 wealth creators adding a staggering Rs 148 trillion in market capitalisation." "During this time, wealth creation grew at a remarkable CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 38%, far outpacing the BSE Sensex's CAGR of 21%." ET. "India's initial public offerings have hit a record Rs 1.77 trillion ($19.6 billion), as companies rush to capture the booming investor demand for new shares." "Foreign institutional investors (FII), lured by the growth outlook and relatively stable policy backdrop, remain active participants in IPOs even as they sell an almost record amount of Indian equities." TOI. While investing in IPOs, "Foreign investors pulled out Rs 179.55 billion (USD 2 billion) from Indian equities in the first two weeks of this month, taking the total outflow to Rs 1.6 trillion (USD 18.4 billion) in 2025." "Meanwhile, in the debt market, FPIs (FIIs) withdrew Rs 3.10 billion under the general limit but invested Rs 1.51 billion through the voluntary retention route during the same period." ET. The combined FII selloff and the lack of a trade deal with the US has resulted in the rupee falling to an all-time low of 90.82 to one dollar (xe.com), despite the dollar index falling 1.1% in December. "The index is also down more than 9% this year, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. (Mint). The Nifty may have delivered 10% gains in 2025 but, "India was the worst performing major market globally this year in dollar terms, and has among the most underweight positions in global portfolios." "FII ownership of the Indian equity markets fell to a 15-month low of 16.9% in Q2 FY26 (Jul-Sep)," but "Taken together with mutual funds, individual investors, now account for 18.75% of listed equities - the highest in 22 years," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Retail investors, desperate for quick wealth, are progressively sacrificing their financial security," wrote Dhirendra Kumar. "First goes the emergency fund, which is risked in futures and options (F&)) trading. Next, the children's education corpus gets diverted into speculative cryptocurrency investments. Retirement savings follow...Insurance policies are surrendered, gold is sold and loans are taken ... in the hope of obtaining that elusive divine boon of instant wealth." The bull run in stocks is explained by market buoyancy but it is actually because of very low returns on bank deposits. Till November the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had cut interest rates by a cumulative 100 basis points in 2025 (Reuters), so that the "State Bank of India offers 6.25% for a 1-year deposit, which after adjusting for taxes and inflation, leaves a minuscule yield on the table." No wonder, household financial assets have declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2023-24, while investments in equity and mutual funds have jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%, wrote Rajrishi Sanghal. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma said that this bull market is the biggest transfer of cash from the poor to the rich, but it is still better than investing in F&O. At least long term returns will be good. Mint. What if there is a 20-30% drop in stock prices? Will individual investors lose a lot of money? Hope it happens one month before an election. Cash transfers all round. Instant wealth.         

Inequality works.

"About 10 years ago, less than one in 10 of India's poorest households owned a bike or car; now close to half do." Mobile phones have become ubiquitous, while among the bottom 40% of households, ownership of refrigerators has jumped from 2.9% to 22.5% in rural and from 20.9% to 57.9% in urban areas, wrote Richa Gandhi.  But, The World Inequality Report 2026 says that in India, "The top 10% of earners capture about 58% of national income, while the bottom 50% receive only 15%...with the richest 10% holding about 65% of total wealth and the top 1% about 40%." The Wire. Still, "As India has grown richer, a different epidemic has quietly spread - obesity." "At a BMI of just 24, Indians face the same risk of diabetes and heart disease that Europeans do at 30." "Officially, only 5% of Indians are obese, but using a more realistic Indian threshold, nearly 30% may already be economically obese," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Ruchir Agarwal. Are government handouts partly responsible for this impressive rise in ownership of assets? Starting on 1 January 2024, the central government is providing free food grains to 813.5 million Indians every month. It is a massive transfer of Rs 11.80 trillion over five years. pib.gov.in. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22.2% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025, indicating substantial expansion in social security coverage in the country." TOI. "Across India, 118 million adult women in 12 states now receive unconditional cash transfers from their governments." "The transfers range from Rs 1,000 -Rs 2,500 ($12-$30)," which "Women typically spend the money on household and family needs - children's education, groceries, cooking gas, medical and emergency expenses, retiring small debts and occasional small items like gold or small comforts." BBC. That is chump change. During the recent elections in Bihar, "The governing NDA govt transferred Rs 10,000 to roughly 12 million women even as the campaign was on." "What makes this more worrisome is that neither the Centre nor the states are financing these giveaways out of surplus revenues. They are funding them through borrowing," wrote Duvvuri Subbarao. Who cares? The ruling coalition won with a thumping majority. The Hindu. Inequality works. As people have acquired more, "Household debt -to-GDP ratio nearly doubled from 26% in June 2015 to 41.9% in Dec 2024. Stressed unsecured retail debt size is $35-45 billion (Rs 3.07-3.95 trillion)" and "1 in 4 personal loans in 2025 funded holidays, overtaking medical and house renovation." TOI. A huge jump from Rs 1,500 to Rs 10,000. In the next election women will expect at least Rs 15,000. More handouts, more debt, more assets, everyone loves inequality. PM Modi has left for a 4-day trip to Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman. Mint. And, why not?  

We are immune.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is at the hazardous level of 707 this morning in Delhi, with PM10 level at 594 and PM2.5 at 429 mcg/ cubic meter. aqi.in. AQI level between 0 and 50 is good and any level above 100 is harmful for health. airnow.gov. "Uranium levels in Delhi's groundwater have increased, placing the capital third in the country after Punjab and Haryana in the share of contaminated samples." The latest report shows that "13-15% of tested samples in Delhi contain uranium above the permissible limit of 30 ppb, raising concerns about drinking-water safety and public health." TOI. Uranium from natural sources is toxic to kidneys, but "Only about 0.1-6% of the uranium a person ingests will get into the bloodstream through the mouth, stomach and intestines." cdc.gov. Water purifiers using reverse osmosis (RO) remove virtually all minerals from tap water but these are usually used by the middle and upper classes. National Library of Medicine. "Studies estimate that over 55 million Indians fall below the poverty line annually due to healthcare costs." "Families resort to savings, borrowing, or high-interest loans, entrenching them in a debt cycle that can last generations." BW. "Indian households spent over INR 120 billion on healthcare-related expenditure in November 2020," of which "Urban India accounted for 42.3% of the total healthcare-related expenditure in this period, while the remaining 57.7% of the expenditure came from rural India." CEDA. The higher proportion of expenditure in rural areas could be because 63% of the population lived in rural areas in India in 2024. (World Bank). Physical illness is usually visible, mental illness is not. "A recent National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report revealed that in Karnataka alone, 29 men die by suicide everyday. Between 2018 and 2023, the state recorded 63,539 suicides, over three-fourths of them men. Rural men are dying at even higher rates." "In a society where family honor carries enormous weight, men are expected to provide, endure and stay silent." DH. If men stay silent, women would seek help. If they can find it. "For years, women in distress knew the first place to go: Delhi Commission for Women. Walk into Mahila Aayog, and someone will sit across you, calm your nerves and hear you out. Try that now. At its Vikas Bhawan office, ask the guard for Mahila Aayog and he shrugs without even looking up: 'Bandh hai' (shut)." TOI. In 2025, 20 children died in Madhya Pradesh due to cough syrup containing diethylene glycol. "India has arrested the owner of the pharma company behind the contaminated syrup...and launched an investigation." BBC. Just drama to fool the people. Because if the government and regulators had taken action when over 70 children died in The Gambia in between July and October 2023 because of contaminated cough syrup from India (BBC) innocent children would not be murdered in search of profit. Even more ridiculous, "The Uttar Pradesh government has filed an application seeking the withdrawal of charges against all the accused in the 2015 Dadri lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq." The Print. The man was beaten to death in front of the entire village, but no one did it. It's no surprise that thousands of Indians die prematurely everyday. It is a wonder that millions don't. We must be immune. To all poisons.             

Balanced economy.

"India's retail inflation quickened to 0.71% in November on an annual basis as against a record low of 0.25% in October," as "Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, fell 3.91% year-on-year in November." "Vegetable prices declined 22.20%." ET. "Core inflation, however, moderated at the margin to 4.34% in November from 4.41% in October on relatively muted inflation in housing and precious metals, GST cuts are also contributing at the margins." said Teresa John. Since the rate of inflation is well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4% consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate set by the government  (ET), there is room for at least one more rate cut of 25 basis points (bps), agreed economists asked by Reuters. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, (Investopedia) is still above the RBI mandate of 4%. So, should we be pleased that vegetable prices are so far below last year's prices? What about farmers? "Maharashtra has witnessed 781 farmer suicides in first nine months of 2025 due to loans, crop failure and excessive rainfall." "According to the National Crime Records Bureau 2023 data," "Of the 6,669 farmer suicides recorded in Maharashtra so far, 4,150 were farmers and 2,519 agricultural laborers." TOI. The BJP-led coalition, the NDA, won the assembly elections in Maharashtra with a huge majority (wikipedia) because "The state's June budget made an allocation for 25 million women to receive Rs 1,500 ($18) in cash. The gambit seems to have paid off. (ET). If a farmer commits suicides because of unpaid debts, surely the widow will be ever so grateful to receive cash handouts to feed her family? Even though the US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate by 25 bps to its lowest level in three years to 3.5-3.75% (CBS), "The Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar by 4.7% year-to-date in 2025, and over 5.8% in the last one year. In Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) terms, the weakness has been even larger, with a year-to-date weakness at an estimated 8.6% until November, and 1-year weakness at 12.1% (TOI)." "The rupee is Asia's worst performer this year." Because, "steep US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods hurt exports to its biggest market, while also diminishing the appeal of local equities for foreign investors." Reuters. To add to the fun, "After the United States, Mexico has decided to impose tariffs as high as 50% on the import of select goods from India." Tariffs on cars will rise from 20% to 50%, which are "expected to impact shipments worth $1 billion from major car exporters, including Volkswagen and Hyundai." NDTV. Nearly 900,000 Indians have renounced their citizenship in the past five years, the Ministry of External Affairs informed Parliament. "India has seen more than 2 million people give up their citizenship over the past 14 years." ET. This is probably the most lucrative export as India received $135.46 billion in remittances in 2024-25 (newsonair.gov,in). As we get more rupees to the dollar that neutralizes some of the pressure from tariffs. This is perfect balance.        

China's leaders should show they can.

"China's trade surplus topped $1 trillion for the first time as manufacturers seeking to avoid President Donald Trump's tariffs shipped more to non-US markets in November, with exports to Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia surging." "Chinese exports overall grew 5.9% year-on-year in November, customs data showed." Reuters. "China's electric-vehicle industry captured half its domestic industry in just a few years," Chinese legacy automakers dumped gas-guzzlers on Poland to South Africa to Uruguay. While Western countries levied tariffs on heavily subsidized Chinese EVs, "Fossil-fuel vehicles have accounted for 76% of Chinese auto exports since 2020, and total annual shipments jumped from 1 million to likely 6.5 million this year." Reuters. "In the past five years, its export volumes have soared while imports have flatlined. China is swallowing up a growing share of the world's market for manufactured goods. This reveals an uncomfortable truth: Beijing is pursuing a 'beggar thy neighbor' growth model." WSJ. Except for Japan and Bangladesh, the rest of Asia is facing serious disinflation. "One culprit is Chinese overcapacity, which has entrenched deflation domestically. It has also put pressure on prices elsewhere, since 2022 China's export-price index has fallen by 15%, even as exports have risen overall." Asian nations are losing manufacturing jobs. The Economist. In 2020, "Growth in America's trade deficit with China since 2001 has resulted in the loss of nearly 4 million domestic jobs - a quarter of which were in California and Texas - according to a new report from the Economic Policy Institute." US News. China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% year-on-year in November from 0.2% in October, "mainly driven by food prices, while factory-gate deflation deepened, with underlying trend suggesting domestic demand remains weak and unlikely to recover in the near term." Reuters. "China is gripped by an insidious problem that is eroding its economy: It is trapped in a cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits, driving a brutal rat race among workers and fueling a deflationary spiral. This is 'involution'." "Generally, it means excessive competition, but it has become shorthand for a range of maladies, especially deflation and overcapacity." WSJ. While China is producing vast amounts of manufacturing goods it is not producing babies, with the total fertility rate (TFR) at about 1.1, nearly half the replacement level of 2.1 (Britannica). Aggravating the fall in fertility is the male to female ratio. According to the World Population Prospects 2024, there are 44.4 million men in the 24-29 group, which should be on the cusp of procreation, but only 38.4 million women." In the 0-4 age group there are 24.9 million males to 22.5 million females. Asia Sentinel. So the demographic mismatch is going well into the future. "China will impose a value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and devices - including condoms - for the first time in three decades, its latest bid to reverse plunging birth rates that threaten to further slow its economy." ET. Considering Chinese President Xi Jinping has only one daughter (wikipedia), a tax on contraceptives is a spiteful dog in the manger (wikipedia) policy. Instead, the leaders should set an example. If they still can.  

Uncanceled flight.

"For years, IndiGo with a 65% domestic market share has helped Indians realise their dreams of flying," "But last week changed it all: IndiGo canceled at least 2,000 flights because of shortage of pilots after it failed to plan adequately for new rules limiting how many hours they work." Reuters. "The rules include longer weekly rest for pilots (48 hours instead of 36) and tighter limits on night landings (two instead of six) after years of fatigue complaints to the regulator." "India's aviation watchdog introduced the new duty rules nearly two years ago to align with global standards, with airlines meant to adopt them in two phases - in June and November this year." Air India says it has implemented them, IndiGo has admitted failure to do so. BBC. "India's regulators are meant to be quasi-judicial bodies - independent, evidence-driven and powerful enough to discipline the biggest corporations." "In practice, most regulators resemble departments inside ministries, staffed by junior officers who simply cannot stand up to billion dollar incumbents." "Companies bet on getting the rules changed later, because history suggested they would." "When rules are unstable, discretionary and revisable under pressure, firms learn that the real game is not competition or efficiency, but regulatory capture," wrote Ajit Ranade. "Unlike Europe and US, India offers no financial compensation for airline-caused delays." "The 'refund and meals only' solution for even an airline's willful negligence is an open invitation to carriers to behave as though operational responsibility is optional." "Passengers shouldn't be expected to trust a system that demands everything from them - money, patience, silence in adversity - while demanding almost nothing from the industry, barring heavy taxes," wrote Manju V. Indian politicians like to boast that India is the fourth largest economy in the world, with a GDP apparently at $4.19 trillion  (cleartax.in) but campaign on poverty when running for elections. Which means that whatever is classed as luxury, according to their whims, is taxed heavily. Flying is seen as luxury and so airline turbine fuel (ATF) has an excise duty of 11% plus VAT charged by states (ET). ATF makes up 40% of an airline's expenses. Exorbitant airport user fees also add significantly to the cost of flying. ET. Three days ago a fire at a popular night club in the coastal city of Goa killed 25 people. BBC. It seems that the club was in serious violations of building codes and the owners were asked to submit documents and permissions but senior police officers interfered to stop these notices. "These officers even pressured local police to close an FIR" against the club. TOI. What has a nightclub fire got to do with flight cancellations by IndiGo? It appears that the owners of the club, brothers Saurabh and Gaurav Luthra, flew to to Phuket in Thailand within hours after the fire. By IndiGo. TOI. Flights canceled. Revelers roasted. The rich fly away. Helped by officials. Flight uncanceled.