Constructing remittance.

"Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) on Wednesday (26 Nov) revoked GRAP-III measures from Delhi-NCR, saying the air quality has improved. TOI. Delhi's Air Quality Index (AQI) is at the Hazardous level of 471 this morning, with PM10 level at 416 and the PM2.5 at 311 micrograms (mcg) per cubic meter. "With this, there is no more restriction on BS-III petrol and BS-IV diesel vehicles. The ban on construction and demolition activities has also been lifted." "Migrant laborers in Delhi form a crucial part of the capital's workforce," and many of these workers are from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Jharkhand." "A large number of them are involved in the construction of buildings, roads and other infrastructure, which are vital for the city's continued expansion. Down to Earth. The cheapest form of transport for these laborers are buses and construction is the easiest to work in. After all, no education or training is required to carry 8-10 bricks or a bag of cement up flights of stairs. In 2023, "India's construction sector is the second largest employment generator with 71 million workforce employed currently and the number is set to cross 100 million by 2030, Knight Frank-RICS report." ET. Earlier this month, "The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured a thumping majority in the Bihar Assembly elections, winning 202 seats in the 243-member House." The BJP got the highest number of seats with 89, while its ally JDU came second with 85. newsonair.gov.in. On 26 September, just over one month before the election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yajana in Bihar, under which the PM transferred Rs 10,000 to the bank accounts of 7.5 million women at a cost of Rs 75 billion. pib.gov.in. In February, the BJP won the Delhi Assembly election with 48 out of 70 seats. wikipedia. Bihar's "leading export 'industry' is processing makhanas, and around the city of Purnia we saw laborers diving in murky waters to extract the nuts, cracking them with mallets by hand , and roasting them over open fires," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "If Bihar were a country, it would be the world's 12th poorest, behind Liberia." In Bihar, "Share of households with at least one migrant rose from 36% in 1998-99 to 60% in 2009-10, to about 65% in 2017." "In 2017, average annual remittance per household was Rs 48,662. Migrant remittances accounted for over 28% of total village income, and about half of the total income of migrant households," wrote Alakh N Sharma. In completely unrelated information, the cost of an adult goat varies between Rs 10,000 and Rs 20,000 per head (Indiamart) and can more than double during the Muslim festival of Eid. The next election in Delhi is not till 2030. By that time there may be more opportunities for handouts. Love the poor.          

The first female Chancellor.

United Kingdom Chancellor Rachel Reeves "has set out details of her second Budget since becoming chancellor." "National Insurance (NI) and income tax thresholds frozen for extra three years beyond 2028, dragging more people into higher brackets over time." BBC. Higher taxes on rental income could increase rents and hit poorer people but higher minimum-wage rates, removal of cap on child benefits, higher state pension, 5p cut in fuel duty and frozen rail fares and prescription charges should help the poor. Markets cheered. "Investors piled into long-dated UK bonds, pushing yields down by the most since April, and boosted the pound after Reeves' Budget helped alleviate some concern about Britain's long-term finances." Thirty-year yields were down 11 basis points at 5.215% and sterling rose 0.5% to $1.32295. Reuters. In a bit of farce, "The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has apologized for mistakenly publishing its economic forecast ahead of the Budget." "The OBR quickly removed the forecast document from its website," but it still caused some volatility in the bond market. BBC. "A dozen members of the House of Lords argued that the easiest way for the UK to emerge from its 'economic and political morass' is to introduce a visa requiring a minimum investment of 2.5 million pounds, according to Bloomberg." BT. The logic of asking rich people to pay so much for a visa so as to pay enormous taxes on their wealth is hard to follow as, "Lakshmi  Mittal's decision to leave the UK for Switzerland and Dubai is an important signal for European economies and also for those outside Europe who plan to squeeze the super rich." Mittal is concerned about the UK's 40% inheritance tax on global assets. ET. One of the reasons for the Labour Party's overwhelming victory in the general election in 2024, gaining 211 seats for a total of 412 seats in the House of Commons (BBC) was the non-dom status, which was perfectly legal, of Akshata Murty, wife of former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (BBC). " 'Non-dom' describes a UK resident whose permanent home - or domicile - for tax purposes is outside the UK." "A non-dom only pays UK tax on the money they earn in the UK," and not on earnings elsewhere in the world. BBC. Reeves delivered her first budget on 30 October 2024, apparently the first woman to do so. wikipedia. In that budget she raised taxes by the most in 30 years. Reuters. Since then, the economic growth slowed down to just 0.1% in the third quarter, "Britain ran up the highest government borrowing in the April-October period since the Covid-19 pandemic, before adjusting for inflation," "inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July, August and September from 2.3% in October 2024," and "The jobless rate rose to its highest since early 2021 at 5.0%." Reuters. Taxes are crucial for foreign investors. In September, during President Donald Trump's second state visit to the UK, "The UK government says it has secured 150bn pounds worth of US investment which it hopes will create 7,600 jobs." BBC. If those investments come through, Britain should do well. Reeves is the first female Chancellor in Britain. Will her old fashioned 'tax and spend' (wikipedia) work? The rich disagree.

Help them enjoy India.

"English regional mayors will be given the power to charge tourists a tax for staying overnight in their towns and cities, Local Government Secretary Steve Reed has said." "The move would bring England into line with Scotland and Wales, which will both bring in tourist tax next year," and "Research suggests a levy of 1 pound per day in London could raise 91 million a year for the capital." BBC. "In 2024, overseas residents made 42.5 million visits to the UK, compared to 38.0 million visits in 2023." "Overseas residents spent, in cash terms, 32.5 billion (about $42.9 billion) in Great Britain in 2024, compared to 31.1 billion pounds (about $41 billion) in 2023." House of Commons Library. On the other hand, India received nearly 10 million foreign tourists in 2024, but nearly 31 million Indians went abroad. 2019 saw nearly 11 million visiting India and about 27 million Indians traveling abroad. pib.gov.in. On paper, "India saw 18.89 million international tourist arrivals at the end of 2023, just crossing the pre-pandemic level of 17.91 million in 2019." But, "non-resident Indians (NRIs) made up a big chunk of the arrivals. And arrivals from Bangladesh, many for medical care, made up another big chunk," wrote Varun Khosla. "Every dollar a tourist spends - on hotels, flights, local crafts, or food - directly adds to our foreign exchange. There is no need for shipping containers, trade deals, or port clearances," said Dipak Deva. "We have everything, except tourists," wrote financial adviser Suraj Kumar Talreja. If we had 100 million foreign visitors every year it would create "billions in foreign exchange, hundreds of thousands of jobs, thriving rural economies and a global soft power leap." "We don't need to reinvent the Taj Mahal," but we need to get rid of "dirty public spaces, aggressive touting, scams, patchy infrastructure, poor marketing abroad and a complicated visitor experience." BT. Recently a video from a UK vlogger traveling by train in India said that a fellow passenger put his foot on his seat despite repeated requests not to do so. "Some dude just spat on my arm." "He looked at me, said something and it went all on my arm. Big gob of it," he wrote. NDTV. "An irony of Indian history is that much of its finest heritage lay buried and forgotten for centuries and was rediscovered by British colonial archaeologists." Sir Alexander Cunningham "identified and mapped ancient sites from Taxila to Sanchi, Sarnath and Bodh Gaya, reconstructing a lost geography of Buddhism," wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. "James Princep succeeded in translating the Brahmi script, making it possible to read ancient pillars and rock edicts of Emperor Ashoka," wrote Aiyar. Foreigners may have excavated most of Egypt's pyramids but, "Last year the country drew 15.7 million visitors who spent a record $15 billion," despite enormous political turmoil since the uprising in 2011. ddnews.gov.in. The present government is trying to claim India's past as glorious Hindu achievements (Reuters) and that India is "vishvaguru" which means teacher of the world (wikipedia). If we welcomed foreigners and gave them a pleasant experience, instead of spitting on them, they would learn a lot more. Otherwise, it is just hot air for the great unwashed. Totally useless.          

We trust in Ram.

"India's economy gathered further pace in October as resurgent festive spending, firmer urban consumption, continued rural demand and the boost from recent GST rate reductions helped lift activity despite persistent external headwinds, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said." "Food prices acted as the single biggest drag on headline CPI (consumer price index)," and "Core inflation - excluding food and fuel - moderated to 4.3% in October from 4.4% in September." ET. "India's annual retail inflation slowed to a record low of 0.25% in October from a revised 1.44% in September, government data showed." Reuters. "Experts said this boosted chances of an interest rate cut at the December monetary policy meeting," but "With second-quarter GDP growth estimated at over 7%, the central bank must determine whether easing policy risks overstimulating an already healthy economy." ET. Daniel Moss thinks, "Fixing this will require more than the standard prescription - simply cutting interest rates. The promise of an aggressive and sustained easing is needed, one that brings its own share of challenges." "The rupee is the worst-performing Asian currency this year against the dollar and, on 21 Nov, it fell to a record low." Gold prices "drove up personal care and effects inflation to 57.8%; excluding gold, headline CPI turned negative to -0.57% y-on-y." Reduction in GST rates resulted in moderating inflation by 85 basis points (bps), when estimates suggested a moderation of 65-75 bps, said SBI Research. "Gold is an asset, not a biscuit," and should be removed from the CPI basket, wrote Monica Halan. "When inflation is too low, it is an indicator of weak demand. This impacts the firms' desire to produce more and when firms cut production wages suffer."Also, the government collects tax on nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and when inflation is too low tax collections falls." So the RBI must cut rates. HT. The problem is that demand is very strong. "India's sweeping consumption tax cut drove shoppers to splurge," so that "Sales across the country topped Rs 6 trillion ($67.6 billion), with items like jewelry, electronic, apparels. furnishing and sweets most in demand." ET. "The economy will be powered in the third quarter (Sept-Dec) by a booming marriage season," and "A Bank of Baroda study pegged consumption related to festivals, including marriages, at Rs 12-14 trillion in the quarter. Wedding expenditure alone is estimated at Rs 4.5-5 trillion." ET. So, should the RBI slash the cost of borrowing? An editorial in the Mint disagrees. "High inflation favors borrowers, as it slowly reduces the value of what must be paid." But price stability "shields our savings and relieves the hard-up of their struggle to make ends meet." Also, as the purchasing power of the rupee declines at a steady modest rate, it facilitates long-range investments in the local currency. So, the RBI should resist the temptation to reduce its policy rates unless there is a possibility of deflation. The problem with that is that the government is the biggest borrower and the RBI is but a branch of the government (rbi.org.in). Perhaps, the rupee will be the deciding factor as the RBI had to support it yesterday after it closed at an all-time low of 89.49 to the dollar on Friday, 21 November. Reuters. Will the rupee hold up, or collapse? "In God we trust" is the official motto of the US. wikipedia. An unofficial one for India is 'Ram Bharose' (trust in Ram). Is it time to panic? God help us.        

Clean streets, clean air.

"Delhi's air quality continues to remain in 'very poor' category, with winter weather conditions worsening it further. This morning, "areas such as Akshardham, AIIMS and ITO were covered with layers of toxic smog, significantly reducing visibility and raising health concerns for residents." Levels of the Air Quality Index (AQI) varied from 388 to 451. News24. Thankfully, "Government-backed apps like SAFAR and SAMEER top out at 500 - the upper limit India's AQI scale, which converts complex data on various pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide and ozone, into a single number." Private sources measure AQI at 600, even at 1000, on some days. Anything above 500 is very harmful for health so the government does not want to create panic. BBC. It does not matter if someone dies of 500 or 1000 so why create panic? Pollution data went missing for a major portion of 11 November and there was no response from the Central Pollution Control Board or the Commission for Air Quality Management. TOI. It was for our good. Because yesterday Delhi Police arrested 15 people for protesting against worsening pollution and there was a brief scuffle after some protesters apparently used pepper spray. TOI. "The Delhi government...directed private offices to operate with 50% on-site staff and to allow the remaining employees  to work from home as a precautionary measure under the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) Stage III." ET. Presumably to stop people driving to work and minimizing vehicle exhausts. The government has diverted blame solely to vehicles and all vehicles in Delhi have to obtain a Pollution Under Control (PUC) certificate every few months (Transport Department) or be fined Rs 10,000 for not having one even if the vehicle is absolutely within limits (DH). Divert blame and collect enormous ransom. Genius. However, according to scientific studies most pollution is caused by open fires - from burning of garbage and biomass to cooking and heating - contributing over half of PM2.5 and PM10 particles. TOI. Tardy collection of waste by the municipality forces residents to burn garbage to clear their streets. In 2022, the North MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) had 32,000 sanitation workers, the East had 14,000 and the South had a total of 20,500 for a grand total of 66,500 sanitation workers. TIE. In addition, a confidential number of sanitation workers are employed by the New Delhi Municipal Council (NDMC) (wikipedia), which is in charge of the exclusive central neighborhood of Delhi where our feudal lords and ladies reside. An effective solution would be to remove all garbage from city streets throughout the day so that there is nothing left to burn. Also, remove all stray cattle so that people cannot use dung cakes for cooking and heating (HT). With domestic cooking gas costing Rs 843 for 14.2 kg (goodreturns.in), the poor save money by burning dung cakes, wood, paper or any combustible material they can collect from the streets for cooking and heating, so proper cleaning and removal of cattle will have immediate salutary effect. But, would they want to upset the vote bank  (wikipedia). The middle class, despised and neglected by politicians and civil servants, are protecting the environment by re-gifting unwanted gifts they receive during festivals, wrote Prof Tulsi Jayakumar. Others are re-gifting pollution. Just clean the streets. Please.    

We are Indians.

"India's strong domestic economy and a smaller-than-expected hit to exports are giving New Delhi more room to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, which has imposed tariffs as high as 50% on imports from the country, Indian sources and analysts said." "domestic tax cuts on hundreds of consumer items since September are boosting local demand and helping exporters stay competitive." Reuters. That may be because India's trade is so small and it persistently runs a trade deficit because it exports so little. In fiscal 2024-25, our merchandise exports were $437.42 billion and services exports were $383.51 billion for a total of $820.93 billion. Total imports were $915.19 billion for a trade deficit of -$94.26 billion. pib.gov.in. In contrast, in 2023, China's total exports were $3.380 trillion, total imports were $2.557 trillion, leading to a positive trade balance of $823 billion. WITS. China's trade surplus was higher than our total exports. As an example of how weak our trade is, India's goods exports to China during April-October increased by 24.7% to just $10.03 billion while we imported goods worth $73.99 billion for a deficit of $64 billion. ET. Cannot get rich by giving money away. Not surprising, "The Indian rupee hit a fresh lifetime low of 89.61 against the dollar on Friday (21 Nov), pressured by US sanctions imposed on certain Indian firms linked to the Iranian oil deal." "The currency breached its previous record low of 88.80, which it had touched in late September." ET. "On average, the rupee falls about 2-3% against the dollar annually; in crisis years, the depreciation is much higher." "Between 5 November 2024, when Donald Trump was re-elected as the US president, and 21 October 2025, the rupee has lost over 4% against the dollar." But "The Indian economy is in decent health, with no obvious trigger for a sharp depreciation." Mint. If the Indian economy is resilient and in "decent health" why is our currency falling? It's not as if the US economy is going gangbusters, with high inflation, an uncertain job market and a Fox News poll showing 76% of Americans are pessimistic about the economy. CNN. In June the RBI cut its policy rate by 50 basis points for a total reduction of 100 basis points in 2025, "signaling the central bank's strong intent to stimulate credit demand and revive economic activity by lowering costs." HT. Totally unnecessary because, "Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 of FY2025-26 over the growth rate of 6.5% during Q1 of FY2024-25." pib.gov.in. Why was the RBI trying to revive the economy which was already racing ahead at lightning speed. Does not seemed to have lowered the borrowing cost for the government. "Indian government bond slumped to a three-week low...after the rupee hit a fresh low," as "The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 6.5665%, its highest since October 31." ET. Seems that the bond market is adding a premium of over 100 basis points over the RBI's lending rate in lending to the Indian government. Showing a lack of trust. Our economy is growing faster than that of the US but the rupee is weakening against the dollar. Americans are pessimistic but we are resilient. May be because we are Indians. We are like that only.   

Rocky stocks.

"Following its worst underperformance versus emerging markets since 1994, the Indian stock market is now getting back on its foot with Sensex and Nifty being near all-time peaks after a long gap of 14 months. In this month alone, at least 3 global brokerages Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and HSBC have released a barrage of bullish reports, projecting Sensex levels as high as 107,000 by December 2026." Because, "Both fiscal and monetary authorities have turned decisively pro-growth," with domestic investors pouring money into equities. ET. However, "As foreign investors sold shares worth Rs 1.02 trillion in the September quarter," "Financial services firms, especially non-banking finance companies, saw the biggest churn with foreign managers cutting their stakes in several mid- and small-sized lenders." ET. The market for initial public offerings (IPO) is booming. "Between 1 October 2024 to 24 October 2025 a record 288 companies filed draft prospectuses with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), in an attempt to raise approximately Rs 4.18 trillion." Of these, 111 IPOs went public, raising an all-time high of Rs 2.18 trillion. TOI. But, this is not the end. "India's primary market is preparing for one of its biggest years, with Equirus Capital projecting IPO fundraising of nearly Rs 1.77 trillion in 2026." ET. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma, Founder of GQuant Investech, labeled India's IPO market as the"dumbest in the history of IPO markets", driven by "dumb money" from retail investors. NDTV. "The most peculiar part of the current drama is the casual acceptance that a company can list its shares at a price that would make its promoters blush and then lose a quarter of its market value within months." "Of course, the sellers, especially the promoters and private investors, have already walked out of the room by then. They have booked their profits, offered polite smiles to cameras and made their exit," wrote Srinath Sridharan. But, where is the flood of money coming from? A survey by SEBI found that 53% of respondents are "aware of at least one securities market product, with urban areas registering a 74% rate, compared to 56% in rural areas." However, "Only 6.7% of the population actually invests in a mutual fund and 5.3% in equities." Mint. A note from CLSA Securities in August 2025 showed that "household financial assets declined from 49.7% in 2011-12 to 38.3% in 2-23-24. During this period, the share of household investment in equity and investment funds jumped from 12.8% to 26.8%." According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), low interest rates on bank deposits are pushing households into riskier assets in an attempt to increase returns. "Any adverse events or contagion in markets could potentially spell disaster for household finances." The RBI is unconcerned, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Shouldn't the RBI and SEBI warn investors against speculating in the markets? The World Bank "starkly describes the control that the finance ministry wields over RBI and other regulatory agencies, "wrote Singhal. And, Shankar Sharma "warned that India's growing reliance on stock market taxes to fund capital expenditures risks leaving the economy vulnerable." ET. Are Indians being forced into investing in stocks? What happens if the bubble pops? Will millions of households become bankrupt? Indian households hold 28,000 tonnes of gold (Ajay Bagga). Gold prices would collapse if they sell. The RBI holds 888 tonnes of gold in reserve. BS. Its reserves will shrink. Perhaps it would be easier to care for citizens. 

Winning elections, losing respect.

"India is 'not going to go to war' with Pakistan, President Donald Trump has quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi telling him during the cross-border military flare-up between the two South Asian nations from May 7-10." Trump claimed he threatened 350% tariffs on India and Pakistan to prevent a nuclear war and to prevent "nuclear dust" from "floating over Los Angeles". DH. Since a ceasefire between India and Pakistan on 10 May, "Trump has claimed over 60 times that he brokered the truce between the two nuclear- armed nations," even as, "India has, however, maintained that the ceasefire was forged directly with Pakistan." India Today. In October, Trump said that "seven brand new" planes were shot down, without specifying which country they belonged to. He also said that Mr Modi is "a very nice man a very good, man". ET. Early this month Trump said, "India and Pakistan, eight planes were shot down. It was seven but now it is eight because the one that was sort of shot down is now abandoned." HT. In October, speaking in South Korea, Trump said, "Prime Minister Modi is the nicest looking guy." "He is a killer, his stuff is...no, we will fight...Whoa is this the same man that I know?" Adding, "I have great respect and love for PM Modi." HT. Trump seems to be enjoying himself hugely. So how many planes were really shot down? In July, "Defence Secretary RK Singh has dismissed reports that India's Rafale fighter jets were shot down by Pakistan during Operation Sindoor." ET. India launched missiles and air strikes on nine alleged terrorist sites in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and in Pakistan's Punjab province in Operation Sindoor. wikipedia. In a report to the US Congress, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) noted that "China's fighter jets and air-to-air missiles had received their first combat use as Pakistan 'successfully flew' them during the four-day conflict with India." "The US commission's claim about 'Pakistan's military success over India' contradicts the statements of the political leaders and senior defence officials in New Delhi." China has used this to boost its defence exports. DH. "While only three Indian jets were reportedly lost, and without confirmation that all were Rafales," "China sought to undermine confidence in the French-made Rafale, used by India during the conflict, and promote its own J-35 fifth-generation fighter as a superior alternative." ET. In October, "IAF destroyed 9-10 Pakistani fighters like US-origin F-16s and Chinese JF-17s, as well as two special aircraft, if the 'kills' in the air and ground are both taken into account during Operation Sindoor, Air Chief Marshall AP Singh said." TOI. It is not clear whether Pakistani planes were shot down by Indian fighter jets, including Rafale, or whether the Russian S-400 surface to air missiles (SAM) caused all the damage. Shortly after Operation Sindoor, Trump hosted "Pakistan's army chief Field Marshall Asim Munir at the White House." Reuters. Why is Trump mocking India? Because the Indian government uses false narratives at home to make itself popular with its followers and win elections. The foreigners know the truth. Hence they ridicule us. Indians have no respect.         

Behind Liberia.

"Billed as a close contest in the backdrop of the wafer-thin margin of the 2020 assembly elections, the 2025 Bihar polls have seen the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surge ahead and win 202 seats in the 243-seat assembly," Of the two largest parties in the NDA, the BJP won 89 seats compared to 74 in 2020, while the JDU won 85 seats, almost double of the 43 it won in 2020. The Wire. Various factors play a role in India's election. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has been conducting a special intensive revision (SIR) of the electorate. "It involves booth-level officers (BLOs) visiting households, distributing forms and collecting updated voter details." TNIE. SIR is supposed to remove names of people who have died but states ruled by opposition parties, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal, have approached the Supreme Court alleging that genuine citizens are also being removed from the voters' list. Mint. Their suspicions have been aroused because BJP leaders bring up the issue of "ghuspaithiya (infiltrators)", meaning Bangladeshis, before elections. "This time in Seemanchal, a region with a substantial presence of Muslim voters." India Today. Eight months pregnant Sunali Khatun is in a Bangladeshi prison. "Branded an 'illegal immigrant' first by Indian police and then by Bangladeshi authorities, she has been pushed across borders and stripped of any belongings, despite holding an Aadhaar card and a voter identity  card." ET. At the end of September, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...launched Bihar's Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana (chief minister women's employment scheme), and transferred Rs 10,000 each to bank accounts or 7.5 million women." The Rs 75 billion scheme "is aimed at promoting women's empowerment through self-employment and livelihood opportunities." NDTV. Brazen buying of votes just over a month before the election in Bihar from 6-11 November (wikipedia). After the sweeping victory, "Thanking the people of Bihar for handing a thumping victory to the NDA, PM Modi has said good governance and development have won the state." NDTV. On his sixth visit to Bihar, Ruchir Sharma wrote, "Traveling nearly 1,000 miles across Bihar, we were battered by the depth of poverty in this lush but swampy landscape." "If Bihar were a country it would be the world's 12th poorest, behind Liberia." "In the town of Maner after we saw touts paying children to wade neck-deep into a garbage-filled pond, groping around for mudfish as their mothers looked on, one of my veteran companions broke down and went home." TOI. With no job opportunity, "Today, two in every three households in Bihar have at least one member working outside the state." "In 1981, only about 10-15% of families had a migrant worker. By 2017, that figure had soared to 65%, turning migration from a coping mechanism into a defining feature of life in Bihar." TOI. In 2024, "In the last two years, PM Modi has spoken has confidently about his ambitious goal to make India a developed economy by 2047." CNBC. Have to beat Liberia first. Like Bihar.           

Hunky dory, or not?

"The net direct tax collections rose 7% year-on-year to Rs 12.92 trillion as of 10 November, reflecting steady inflows from corporate and personal income taxes despite moderation in overall growth compared to last year." "Analysts say part of the slowdown stems from the personal income tax relief announced in this year's budget, which is expected to cost the exchequer around Rs 1 trillion." Mint. Even if not as robust as last year, an increase means wages and earnings have risen this financial year starting 1 April. This plus," India's sweeping consumption tax cut drove shoppers to splurge on items from cars to kitchenware during the month-long festival season," as "Sales across the country topped Rs 6 trillion ($67.6 billion), with items like jewelry, electronics, apparel, furnishings and sweets most in demand." ET. This is the Laffer Curve  (wikipedia) at its summit. Despite this spending frenzy consumer price index (CPI) inflation dropped to a record low of 0.25% in October. ET. Since a rise in prices means a fall in the value of the currency this should support the exchange rate of the Indian Rupee. "On a day-to-day basis, the rupee-dollar exchange rate fluctuates in response to actual and expected dollar flows. But in the long run, exchange rate depreciation tends to be related to inflation differences between economies, as per the theory of purchasing power parity." Since the inflation differential with the US has fallen the rupee may stop falling and, may even appreciate, against the dollar. Wrote Deepa Vasudevan. In 1947 one US dollar bought Rs 3.3, in 2000 the rate was Rs 44.94 (bookmyforex.com) and is trading at Rs 88.44 this morning (xe.com). Which means the rupee has depreciated on average by just over 1% since 1947 and by 1.72% since 2000 against the USD. While the inflation rate has collapsed to 0.25%, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy rate at 5.50% on 1 October 2025. pib.gov.in. Which means that "the real repo rate - nominal repo rate minus inflation - in October now stands at 5.25%, the highest monthly number since January 2012 since when we have monthly inflation data in the current CPI series," wrote Roshan Kishore. When the cost of borrowing is so much higher than inflation it provides ammunition to the RBI to slash its policy rate at its next meeting on 3 December. The bond market should be anticipating a fall in interest rates on government of India (GOI) bonds, which are highly safe, and rushing to buy these bonds to lock in high yields. The market reaction would increase the price of bonds and reduce yields. Surprisingly, that has not happened. Yields on the benchmark 10-year GOI bonds actually rose from 6.483% on 12 November when the CPI inflation rate was announced to 6.536% on 17 November. It has fallen slightly to 6.512% today, but is still higher than on the 12th. in.investing.com. "Indian government bonds fell further on Friday (14 Nov), as traders braced for a heavy debt supply and as a cash withdrawal operation from the central bank took the market by surprise." "New Delhi plans to raise Rs 280 billion ($3.2 billion) through sales of 15-year and 40-year bonds.. Traders are wary before the auction as the demand for long-term bonds has waned." ET. We are told everything is hunky dory. Is it? If the bond market can't make out, how can we?      

India+EAEU vs US+EU.

"US President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind a new wave of hard-hitting sanctions aimed at isolating Russia, warning that countries maintaining trade ties with Moscow - and potentially Iran - will be 'very severely sanctioned'." "A bill introduced by Senator Lindsey Graham calls for a 500% tariff on secondary purchases and reselling of Russian oil, a proposal with broad support in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee." TOI. "India's goods exports to the US, its largest foreign market, dropped sharply by 20% in September and nearly 40% in the last four months," as Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports, which "includes a 25% penalty for Delhi's refusal to stop buying oil from Russia." BBC. Can the US trade with Pakistan while stomping jackbooted on our sovereign right to trade with our longtime friend Russia? And, can the Indian economy afford to give up trading with Russia? "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record high of $41.68 billion in October, up from $32.15 billion in September, driven largely by an increase in gold and silver imports, government data showed." Economists had expected a deficit of $28.8 billion in October, but "India's exports were down 11.8% to $34.38 billion, while imports went up 16.63% to $76.06 billion." ET.  In fact, "India, the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil, spent as much as 2.5 billion euros on purchases of crude oil from Moscow in October, ahead of new sanctions being slapped on Russian entities." DC. Not just oil, "Russia has submitted a proposal to India for the supply and local production of its fifth-generation SU-57 fighter jets." "The source added that Russia will complete deliveries of five S-400 'Triumf' surface-to-air missile systems to India by 2026." India Today. India is looking to spend Rs 100 billion for the S-400 air defence system which "brought down five to six Pakistani fighter aircraft and one spy plane at a distance of over 300 km deep inside Pakistan during the four-day conflict and has been termed a game-changer by the Indian Air Force." ET. In addition, "India and Russia reiterated their resolve to achieve $100 billion bilateral trade by 2030 in Moscow...and reviewed next steps for the India-Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) free trade agreement in goods, the commerce ministry said." HT. The EAEU is trade bloc consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia and the bloc is negotiating free trade agreements with India, Indonesia, Israel, Mongolia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). wikipedia. These countries are not insignificant, so will the US impose sanctions on all of them? Not just that, India's success against US-supplied fighter jets in Pakistan will surely encourage other countries to buy the S-400 system to protect themselves against NATO threats. Meanwhile, the beneficiary of all these sanctions - "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing the biggest corruption scandal of his six-year presidency, as investigators accuse one of his former business partners of leading a multimillion-dollar bribery scheme, Kyiv Independent reported." ET. There is no reason why India should lose money in support of this regime. As a sweetener, India is to buy 2.2 million tonnes of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) per annum from the US, equivalent to 10% of our imports. ABP. "India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India wants a fair, equitable, balanced trade deal with the US and it will not compromise." NDTV. Or else, we expand the EAEU?          

What a trilemma!

"India's economic growth likely accelerated to 7.3% in the second quarter of the fiscal year, buoyed by a resilient rural economy, higher government spending and early export shipments, according to an ET poll of 12 economists." "GDP expanded 7.8% in the April-June period, the fastest in five quarters." ET. Despite scorching growth, "India's retail inflation slowed to a record low of 0.25% in October, against 1.54% in September, as food prices fell sharply and tax cuts brought down the prices of items from cars to products in daily use, government data showed." ET. Also, "Wholesale prices fell to a 27-month low and slipped into deflation after two months of positive readings, declining to -1.2% in October, owing to a drop in food prices, and softer fuel and manufactured goods prices, showed official data." ET. "The ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) has opened a discussion:..should free goods be included in the consumer price index?" wrote Prof Prachi Mishra. The Central government is providing 5 kg of free food grains per person per month to 813.5 million people from 1 January 2024. NDTV. Since food and beverages make up 54.18% of our consumer price index (CPI) basket of goods (pib.gov.in), correcting for free food handouts should give a lower and truer figure for CPI inflation. But, why stop at food? What about cash transfers, such as Rs 10,000 to 7.5 million women in Bihar just before assembly elections, at a cost of Rs 75 billion (pib.gov.in)? And, "What about free medicines, healthcare and education?" That is why other countries also calculate core CPI inflation rate, but this is not officially published in India. Core inflation is measured excluding food and energy prices because these are volatile. Investopedia. India's core inflation was estimated at 4.233% in October. India Macroeconomic Index. "The retail inflation excluding gold is expected to remain negative over the next two months, according to a report by SBI Research, highlighting an unusually low-inflation environment in India." Core inflation, excluding gold, came down to 2.6% in October. ET. Goods and services tax (GST) rates have been reduced on a range of goods, from 22 September (pib.gov.in), which has helped reduce retail inflation by 85 basis points (bps) instead of earlier estimates of 65-75 bps. While India's inflation is trending below 2%, the CPI for all urban consumers rose by 3% in the US (bls.gov). A rise in prices means a fall in the value of the currency. Since prices in India are rising at a much slower rate than those in the US, the Indian rupee should be hardening against the US  dollar. But, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is valiantly trying to defend the rupee from falling below 89 to the dollar by hedging against the dollar, especially in the non-deliverable forward market (Investopedia). "It seems the market has not given the RBI enough time to cleanse short positions that it accumulated around 88.80 (RBI forward book stood at USD 53bn as on August end and the guesstimate is that it may be upwards of USD 60bn currently," wrote Abhishek Goenka. In its last meeting, the RBI held its policy rate at 5.50% (pib.gov.in). With inflation so low there are ample reasons to cut interest rates. Will it? But, what if it can't hold the rupee? A weaker rupee will increase import prices and lead to inflation. Seems that the RBI is caught on the horns of, not a dilemma, but an impossible trilemma (wikipedia). Tough.       

It's in the timing.

"The United States and Switzerland announced a framework trade agreement...that includes Washington slashing its tariffs on imported Swiss products to 15% from 39% and a pledge by Swiss companies to invest $200 billion in the US by the end of 2028." Reuters. Earlier, "In a massive trade deal with the European Union, the EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion in US energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028, while accepting a 15% tariff rate, and charging American companies zero." The White House. On 8 May, a US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) was concluded, under which there will be a baseline 10% tariff on UK exports to the United States and the first 100,000 cars would carry a tariff rate of 10%. There is still a US tariff of 25% on steel and aluminium imports while the UK has not removed a 10% tariff on US cars and 25% tariff on US car parts. The biggest bonanza for the UK was that, "US firms such as Microsoft, Nvidia and OpenAI committed approximately $130 billion in capital investment to build out digital infrastructure in the United Kingdom." CSIS. Since 27 August, Indian goods have been charged 50% tariffs which has severely impacted Indian exports to the US. BBC. "Commerce and industry Minister Piyush Goyal...said India wants a fair, equitable, balanced trade deal with the US and it will not compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen, and the dairy sector." NDTV. Indian farmers are the most exploited people on the planet, as well as probably the most unfortunate. "Indian farmers' hopes for bumper crops following this year's abundant monsoon rains were dashed by heavy downpours just before harvest that damaged their fields, crushing the dreams of millions who rely solely on agriculture for their livelihoods." ET. Across Maharashtra, "Relentless rains have wrecked crops - from onions, tomatoes and potatoes to pomegranate and soyabean - while collapsing prices have left farmers with little to show for their toil." ET. Once called 'white gold', "Cotton farmers in India are facing one of their worst crises in decades." "Yields are falling in the fields, prices are dropping in the mandis (wholesale markets) and imports are rising in the markets. By reducing import duty to zero, the government has made the situation even more difficult for farmers." India Today. Just occasionally, Indian farmers can get lucky. In July 2023, a farmer couple in Maharashtra made a windfall profit of about Rs 24 million from tomatoes on their 12 acre farm. NDTV. This could not be allowed. So the government imported tomatoes from Nepal to sell at Rs 50 per kg. CNBC. Prices crashed and farmers, who came later, made losses. Inflation reduces votes. Now, "The electoral victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party in a key state (Bihar) is set to pave the way for New Delhi to make farm-related concessions, a central demand of US trade negotiators." CNBC. Moral of the story: Indians are disposable. Get the timing right.    

Why didn't they do it earlier?

The United States is India's top export market , accounting for $10.8 billion or 30% of all textile and apparel exports from the country." So, the impact of US tariffs "has been severe on Indian textile and apparel exporters, with 34% of businesses reporting that their sales revenue has reduced by half." India Today. Two days back, "The Centre...said that India's global export of textiles, apparel and made-ups grew by 0.1% during April-September 2025, compared to the corresponding period in 2024." Exports grew to around $8.5 billion from $7.7 billion. DH. Clearly, this growth in exports to other countries is not enough to make up for the loss of the US market. And so, "The ministry of chemicals and fertilizers has rescinded 14 quality control orders (QCOs), including polyester fibers and polyester yarn with immediate effect in public interest." HT. If revoking QCOs was in public interest why didn't they do it earlier? "India's sweeping consumption tax cut drove shoppers to splurge on items from cars to kitchenware during the month-long festival season," as "Spending between 22 Sept. and 21 Oct. - the period between the Hindu festivals of Navaratri and Diwali - increased 8.5% from the same time last year." ET. The goods and services tax (GST) was simplified and tax rates on a range of goods were reduced or discontinued with effect from 22 September. pib.gov.in. "On the eve of a sweeping overhaul of India's tax regime, Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said the next generation of GST reforms will 'accelerate India's growth story', ease doing business, and bring relief to the poor and middle class." ET. If cutting GST is so beneficial why didn't they do it earlier? "America dominates the semiconductor chip supply chain, from design to advanced manufacturing, while China leads in rare-earth refining, graphite, and magnet production, giving it vast influence over important industrial supply chains," wrote Ajay Srivastava. "Homi Jehangir Bhabha, often referred to as the father of Indian nuclear program, set up Indian Rare Earths Ltd (IREL) in 1950. He did so to bolster India's energy security as radioactive thorium had the potential to be used as fuel in nuclear reactors," wrote T Surender. The insatiable hunger for electricity, without causing pollution, of the US tech companies has resulted in a race for small modular nuclear reactors using thorium. NBP. "India is home to one of the largest thorium deposits in the world - estimated at between 457,000 and 508,000 tonnes, largely concentrated in the monazite sands of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Odisha." NBP. Despite Bhabha's foresight why didn't they do it earlier? "India wants to become a global chip major, but the odds are steep: competition is fierce, and India is a late entrant to the race to make the most advanced chips." CNBC. Computers and chips have been around for over 30 years, so why didn't the do it earlier? That's why India is backward. And poor.   

Toss a coin.

 "India's retail inflation slumped to a record low of 0.25% in October, driven by a sharp fall in food prices and tax cuts on consumer goods, paving the way for a rate cut by the central bank in December." This may offset the effects of US tariffs. "The economy, which grew at 7.8% in the April-June period is seen slowing over the second half of this year." Reuters. This should be a cue for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut its policy rates, after the meeting on 1 October when, "RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% with a neutral stance. It signals a balanced approach that supports economic momentum while ensuring financial stability." pib.gov.in. At the end of October, "The US Federal Reserve pushed forward with an interest rate cut as inflation fears continue to take a backseat to concerns about a stalling labor market." The Fed cut its Funds rate by 0.25% to 3.75%-4%. BBC. One day ago, "The US Fed will again lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to underpin a weakening labor market, according to 80% of economists polled by Reuters. However, a few hours later, a growing number of Fed policymakers are undecided about a rate cut in December, "Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two US interest rates cuts this year." Reuters. The RBI could still go ahead with a 25 basis points cut which will keep the difference with the US at 1.50-1.25% and hope that bondholders do not dump Indian government bonds in favor of US Treasuries to compensate for a falling value of the rupee against the dollar. India does not publish its Core Inflation rate, which leaves out volatile food and energy, "focusing only on items which have fairly predictable price movements (Investopedia). According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), core inflation in October was "at 4.3%, which is far from insignificant. More importantly, while headline CPI has largely shown a falling trend in the last few months, core inflation has been broadly stable in the ballpark of 4%-4.5%," wrote Roshan Kishore. India is not alone, consumer prices are falling across Asia. "One culprit is Chinese overcapacity, which has entrenched deflation domestically. It has also put pressure on prices elsewhere: since 2022 China's export-price index has fallen by 15%, even as exports have risen overall." HT. "China is gripped by an insidious problem that is eroding its economy: It is trapped in a vicious cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits, driving a brutal rat race among workers and fueling a deflationary spiral." China calls it "Involution". Mint. China is exporting its deflation to the rest of the world. "Deflation, a reduction in the prices of goods and services, increases the purchasing power of money." Investopedia. Falling prices should be welcome as people are able to buy more for the same income, thus increasing their standard of living. The problem is that people postpone purchases to get even greater discounts later and companies cut production as profits drop. People lose jobs as the economy shrinks, as exemplified by Japan's Lost Decades (wikipedia). So, to cut or not to cut, that is the question. How is the RBI to decide? Tossing a coin is an option. 

Doctors buying fertilizer.

"At least eight people were killed on Monday (10 November) evening after a car exploded near the Red Fort landmark in Indian capital Delhi. Delhi's police commissioner says the blast happened at 18.52 local time, when a slow-moving vehicle stopped at a red light and exploded." BBC. On 11 November, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi departed for Thimphu, Bhutan, for a two-day state visit. During his November 11-12 visit, the Prime Minister will attend several official programs and participate in the Global Peace Prayer Festival organised by the Royal Government of Bhutan." ANI. There are more important things than citizens blown to bits by a terrorist bomb. "It started on 18 October in the Kashmir Valley" when "Jammu & Kashmir police learnt of posters pasted on the walls of houses in Nowgam, a middle class neighborhood on the periphery of Srinagar. Written in Urdu, the posters warned of imminent 'spectacular attacks' on security forces and outsiders (non-natives) in Kashmir." Investigation by J&K Police led to Moulvi Irfan, then to Dr Adeel Rather from Kulgam, and finally to Drs Muzammil Shakeel Ganaie, Umar un-Nabi and Shaheen Shahid at Al Falah Medical College in Faridabad on the outskirts of Delhi. HT. Days before the explosion, "Just a day after 350 kg of explosives and several arms and ammunition were seized from a rented ammunition, 2,563 kg of suspected explosives were recovered from another house in Haryana's Faridabad." NDTV. These were discovered by J&K Police with assistance from Haryana Police and had been moved to the houses in the last 30-40 days. TOI. Did the Delhi Police know about the explosives and did they increase surveillance to prevent the attack? Switching to English to warn the whole world from Bhutan, Mr Modi said, "All those responsible will be brought to justice." TOI. Hope no Kashmiri person will be shot dead in another country like Hardeep Singh Nijjar was shot dead in British Columbia in Canada (wikipedia), resulting in Indians having to wait for at least 99 days for a visitor visa to Canada (ET). A plot like this cannot be carried out in a few days. Must have taken months, if not years. Faridabad is only 28 kms from Delhi (yatra.com), which is the capital city of India, and where bomb attacks have occurred in the past (Reuters). Doctors buying enormous quantities of ammonium nitrate which is primarily used in agriculture, but also to make explosives  (wikipedia), should surely have aroused suspicion. So, why didn't it? India's investigative agencies are busy in arresting opposition politicians with various charges (Reuters) and keeping them in prison for months without providing any evidence in court. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has been able to secure conviction against only 2 out 193 politicians it accused in the last 10 years. ET. "It's clear as daylight that the Guardian of Democracy, the Election Commission of India's reaction to revelations of likely tens of millions of fake voters in India's electoral rolls is stonewalling, passive aggressiveness, filmy dialogues - and zero action." The Print. When all the departments of the government are channelled into keeping the present coterie in power, citizens are reduced to an afterthought. Tourism is highly entertaining. Timepass.      

Some are more important.

"It's official. The capital's air quality reached emergency levels yesterday and was the worst in nearly 11 months." This prompted "the Commission of Air Quality Management (CAQM) to enforce Stage III restrictions under the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across NCR." The average Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 428. TOI. According to Indian government guidelines, any level above 50 is bad for health and a level higher than 301 is considered hazardous. airnow.gov. "A Delhi-bound flight from Bengaluru surprised many after a passenger shared a photo showing only 10 people on board. The image posted on X, shows how air pollution in the national capital may be discouraging travelers." Daily Jagran. This being Delhi, evasion and deceit are the default option for the authorities. "A ground check by TOI at several (AQI checking) stations found glaring inconsistencies and questionable practices that may be influencing readings. At Anand Vihar - a pollution hot spot - the area around the monitoring unit was being repeatedly doused with water using high-pressure hoses." At Dilshad Garden, "The station is deep in a forested patch of a medical institute - covered by trees and away from the city dust and traffic." Mandir Marg was similar. On 10 November, "Since 1 pm, neither hourly AQI nor the city's daily average had been released till late evening, even as the air visibly worsened since the afternoon." TOI. Why is the government unable to control air pollution in Delhi despite evidence of children suffering? Or, is it unwilling? Much of the pollution comes from burning of stubble by farmers in Punjab, Haryana and UP. Although, "farm fires in Punjab fell to 10,909 cases last year as against 36,663 in 2023." BBC. Maybe not. Farmers have learnt that NASA satellites overpass the region at around 1.30-2 pm and set fire to their fields in late afternoon to avoid the satellites. This is confirmed by the South Korean geostationary satellite which takes a picture every five minutes. NDTV. If high pollution levels are acknowledged then the government would be obliged to act by starting GRAP restrictions banning construction activities (drishtiias.com). The construction sector is the second largest employer across India and is projected to employ over 100 million people by 2030. ET. The majority of employees in construction are laborers who are paid on a daily basis and a loss of earnings cannot be recovered. A large part of the pollution comes from cooking with biomass - firewood, dung cakes, agro-residues and charcoal. These are also used for heating in winter which can be very cold in Delhi, wrote Chandra Bhushan. Biomass cooking and heating are used exclusively by the poor and no politician in India will ever take any action that hurts the interest of farmers, laborers and poor people who constitute the 'vote bank' (wikipedia). So why has the government enforced GRAP III restrictions now? Because a public protest highlighted the damage to health, especially of children. BBC. Though Delhi Police responded by arresting scores of people, as they usually do, the government might be concerned about public anger. After all, the poor also have children. And medical care is expensive.      

Make any sense?

"Syria will join the international coalition to combat the Islamic State group," after "President Donald Trump met Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House." "Trump has expressed support for al-Sharaa, who until recently was designated  terrorist by the US government." "Syria will now be the 90th country to join the global coalition," against Islamic State and sanctions against Syria will be lifted. BBC. Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa was born in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia and formed the al-Nusra front in collaboration with Al Qaeda. wikipedia. So, al-Sharaa is a born-again democrat to be welcomed to the White House because Russia must be pulverized for objecting to NATO missiles on its border with Ukraine. Just like President Ronald Reagan welcomed the Afghan Mujahideen to the White House to liberate Afghanistan from the Soviet Union. file photo. Under the Reagan administration, the CIA armed and financed the Mujahideen, code-named Operation Cyclone (wikipedia) through Pakistan, ruled by Gen Zia-ul-Haq (wikipedia). The Mujahideen morphed into the Taliban (wikipedia) which, after a long story, forced US forces to flee in total disarray in September 2021 (CNN), leaving behind trails of their panic, as well as $7 billion worth of advanced weapons (BBC), making the Taliban even stronger. Another democrat was welcomed in June as "Trump hosted Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir at the White House...in an unprecedented meeting that risked worsening a disagreement with India over the president's claim that he stopped last month's conflict between nuclear-armed South Asian foes." Reuters. Last week, "In and interview with CBS News's 60 Minutes.., Trump said several countries, including Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan are conducting nuclear tests, while the US remains the only nation that does not." ET. "Between 30 April and 12 May 2025, at least four tremors between magnitudes 4.0 and 4.7 struck the area. These magnitudes were similar to Pakistan's 1998 tests. At that time, experts refuted the nuclear-test rumors, pointing out that the region sits on one of the world's most active fault lines." ET. We are told that, "al-Qaeda, broad-based militant Islamist organization, was founded by Osama bin Laden in the late 1980s and became one of the world's most notorious terrorist organizations after carrying out the attacks of September 11, 2001." Britannica. Mullah Mohammed Omar was the leader of the Taliban and was a firm friend of Osama bin Laden. Believed to have married bin Laden's eldest daughter. BBC. bin Laden was killed by the US in Pakistan's garrison town Abbottabad in 2011 (BBC) with help from Pakistan's spy agency the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) according to former Prime Minister Imran Khan (NDTV) who has been thrown in prison by the army after accusing the ISI of trying to assassinate him, along with his wife Bushra Bibi, on corruption charges (wikipedia). By being a friend of Pakistan and Syria, is the US becoming a friend of Osama bin Laden by association? At best, it is a government of imbeciles. Totally incomprehensible to the rest of the world.      

What are they for?

In July, "Govt has agreed to cut tariffs on thousands of products imported from UK - from chocolates and cosmetics to cars, silver and Scotch - but reduction and elimination of customs duties will not translate into entire benefit being passed on to consumers." But companies will increase their margins. TOI. "The trade deal with UK may have been under negotiation for three years but the seeds were sown 18 years ago - on 28 June 2007, when India began talks for a Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement." TOI. If Indian citizens are not to see a fall in prices, this whole exercise seems to be a colossal waste of time and money. Seems a lot like our experience with the price of fuel. The price of crude oil started rising from October 2007, reached an eye-watering $128.08 per barrel in July 2008, dropped to $35 in January 2009, climbed to a high of $108.80 in April in 2011, stayed around $100 per barrel till November 2014 when it started to drop sharply and has stayed below $70 per barrel since. eia.gov. However, the retail price of petrol did not go above Rs 73 per liter till 2014, when Mr Narendra Modi was elected prime minister for the first time  (wikipedia). As prices dropped lower the government kept increasing taxes so that the retail price of petrol rose above Rs 90 per liter and has stayed there. cleartax.in. "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel is 50% of the fuel's retail value." cleartax.in. Though we do not benefit from the agreement with the UK, we have been seriously harmed as, "It was the British intelligence agency GCHQ which handed a dossier to Ottawa of intercepted communications alleging the Indian government was behind various plots to kill Khalistan separatists, according to a Bloomberg documentary." Apparently, GCHQ "intercepted conversations between individuals discussing three potential 'targets': Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, Avtar Singh Khanda in Britain and Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the US." TOI. Possibly as a result, "The number of Indian nationals forcibly removed from Canada this year is on track to surpass the record number that was logged in 2024." HT. US President Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on imports from India (BBC) and a fee of $100,000 on H-1B visas which are availed mostly by Indians  (TOI). US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth met India Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on 31 October on the sidelines of the 12th ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM+) in Kuala Lumpur but though "India held all the aces when the Defence Ministers went into the meeting," "he did not use them,  presumably because he did not have the political clearance to do so," wrote KP Nayar. Now Trump has hinted that he may visit India next year for his second visit to the country without giving any reason for the visit. BBC. Seems a little fishy. Like Barack Obama's second visit to India as the chief guest for Republic Day celebrations in January 2015. BBC. Just after intense cross-border firing between India and Pakistan. TOI. All these agreements, meetings and visits. Are they helping us? Or, colonizing us?   

Will UBF defeat the RBI?

"Calling yourself 'middle class' might be more about comfort than cash, says Dime founder and wealth advisor Chandralekha MR." According to her, a family with net worth below Rs 10 million is lower middle class, from Rs 10-20 million is middle class, from Rs 20-50 million is upper middle and a net worth above Rs 50 million is rich. BT. So, a lot of Indians who describe themselves as middle class are really rich. That being the case, what explains "The population covered by social protection schemes has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in in 2025, indicating substantial expansion in social security coverage in the country, data released by the statistics ministry showed." ET. Also, 813.5 million people are receiving 5 kg of free food grains every month, starting on 1 January 2024 for five years, at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion. pib.gov.in. In September, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a scheme to deposit Rs 10,000 into bank accounts of 7.5 million women in Bihar at a cost of Rs 75 billion. "Starting with an initial financial support of Rs 10,000, the scheme can provide up to Rs 200,000 based on the success of the enterprise." pmindia.gov.in. There are numerous other goodies including free gas connections, free rations, free houses and so on. Cash transfers "reduce the scope for corruption and leakages and allow households to make choices suited to their needs. But cash transfers have not - with some exceptions - been used by either the central or state govts to replace existing subsidies." The concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) (wikipedia) has been converted to Universal Basic Freebies (UBF) by Indian politicians, wrote Swaminathan Aiyar. How is the government financing all this generosity? Gross direct tax collections were nearly Rs 26 trillion in 2024-25, of which corporate taxes accounted for Rs 12.40 trillion while personal income tax collected Rs 12.90 trillion. cleartax.in. Starting in July 2017, goods and services tax (GST) collections have grown from Rs 7.19 trillion in 2017-18 to Rs 18.10 trillion in 2022-23, Rs 19.80 in 2023-24 and to Rs 22.09 trillion in 2024-25. blog.tatanexarc. com. GST collections may have been helped by high retail inflation which jumped from an average of 3.3% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021, 6.7% in 2022, and 5.7% in 2023. rateinflation.com. High inflation helps the government reduce its debt by increasing indirect tax collections, reducing the value of debt and increasing income tax collections as salaries rise. economicshelp.org. However, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected to come in at 0.48% in October from 1.54% in September, enabling the Reserve Bank (RBI) to cut interest rate further. Reuters. "Veteran investor Shankar Sharma...warned that India's growing reliance on stock market taxes to fund capital expenditure risks leaving the economy vulnerable, describing the trend as 'stockmarketification' of the fiscal framework." ET. Freebies are permanent as trying to stop them will electoral suicide. In fact, once people are used to what they are getting they are likely to demand more. What happens if the government is unable to control its fiscal deficit and debt begins to rise? What if the markets correct? The RBI has been selling dollars to prevent the rupee from falling to 89 to the dollar. Reuters. How long can it keep its finger in the dyke? Depends on elections.