Tuesday, March 21, 2023

It's in the eyes of the beholder.

"A 58 million increase in jobs between calendar year 2019 and calendar year 2022. Jobs for women increased by 28 million or by 25% over 2019 level; jobs for men increased by 30 million,...or 8.4%," wrote Surjit S Bhalla & Tirthatanmoy Das. These figures are from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Report (July 2021-June 2022) by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). The survey reports its results in percentages so Bhalla & Das have probably calculated the absolute numbers they provide. The report provides three ratios: the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), which is the percentage of people working or looking for work, the Worker Population Ratio (WPR), which is the percentage actually working, and the Unemployment Rate (UR). On each of these parameters there is a difference of about 1-2% between 2019-20 and 2021-22. For example, the LFPR for rural women has gone up from 33.0 to 36.6% and WPR from 32.2 to 35.8%, but the LFPR for urban women went up from 23.2 to 23.8% and WPR from 21.3 to 21.9% (less than 1%). The increase in low paying agricultural jobs is not good. "The agricultural sector witnessed a return of 36 million workers between 2017-18 and 2021-22. So pronounced was it that the absolute count of workers in agriculture stood higher in 2021-22 than in 2011-12, a decade ago," wrote Prof Himanshu. If a total of 58 million Indians have found paid employment, consumer spending should be shooting skywards. "Online and offline sales during the Hindu festival period starting in the last week of September and lasting until early November are estimated to cross $27 billion, almost double the amount in the same pre-Covid period in 2019, and nearly 25% higher than last year, according to industry estimates." ET. But, "Consumer perception of the general economic condition continues to be pessimistic as per the Reserve Bank of India's Consumer Confidence Survey of January 2023, where more than 50% of consumers reported it to have worsened." ET. Hence consumer demand is expected to stay low over the coming quarters." And, "Listed manufacturing companies recorded lower sales growth of 10.6 percent in December quarter of the current fiscal compared to 20.9 percent in the previous quarter, according to data released by the RBI. The moderation in manufacturing companies was broad-based across the industries, except for cement." ET. Not much evidence of festival boost. "Indians purchased an estimated 2.6 billion pairs of footwear in 2019-20," "But in the ongoing financial year (2022-23), sales of low-priced open footwear have stuttered. Relaxo Footwears, a leading mass market brand, reported an 8% drop in sales volumes and revenues in the third quarter (October-December)," wrote Sayantan Bera. So, why are Bhalla & Das so excited? Because, according to NSSO data, between 2004-05 and 2011-12, employment increased by just 13.3 million which is a compound annual growth rate of 0.4%. This was before Mr Modi became prime minister for the first time in 2019, wikipedia. Mr Modi the Messiah, Mr Bhalla the acolyte. Amen.

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