Friday, March 03, 2023
Pizzas and fried chicken.
"Worries about India's consumption growth slowing down are overdone," wrote Rajesh Shukla. "Currently consumption is highly skewed in favor of the middle classes and the rich," - "for instance the share of the bottom 20% of the population in total household disposable income was about 6.5% in pre-Covid, down to 3% during Covid and again up to 4.5% now." "Using ICE 360 Surveys data, we have estimated the income elasticity of food to be 0.47, which is relatively lower than other consumption items such as education (0.79 rural and 0.67 urban) and conveyance (1.08 rural and 0.97 urban)." Which should mean that as Indians get more affluent they spend more of their earnings on discretionary goods and services. Growth in the food delivery business is beginning to taper off, wrote Jethmalani, Pengonda & Sampath. "Our analysis suggest that forced savings (given an inability to spend on goods and services during lockdowns) and precautionary savings (fear of job loss and economic uncertainty) led Indian households to save an extra $180 billion over 2020 and 2021," said Tanvee Gupta Jain, chief economist, UBS Securities India. "We believe household spending was pulled forward over the past year (until September 2022) using their excess savings accumulated during the pandemic." "Even as people ate less pizzas and fried chicken, they bought less clothes and lipstick too. Those who shopped possibly ordered the cheaper stuff." "What is loosely described as a K-shaped recovery," "has a bearing on private consumption, which makes up over 60% of GDP." Mint. "Clearly, any upward financial skew that leaves out the buzzy bulk of Indian buyers would go against the prospects of a general consumer boom." "Sustained for years at a stretch, inequitable expansion would put our economy at risk of slipping into a middle-income trap, that would make high income status an elusive goal even a quarter century hence." "Mobile tele-density has been falling for more than five years now. In October-December it stood at 82.6 (826 mobile connections for every 1,000 individuals)," wrote Vivek Kaul. It was 92.1 in March-June 2021. "The S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 55.3 in February, little-changed from 55.4 in January, the private survey showed." Mint. "Private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) funding to India's startup ecosystem fell 77 percent in February from a year earlier, as investors continued treading cautiously amid macroeconomic uncertainties." moneycontrol. "In the recent weeks, over tens of thousands of tech employees have been laid off across the globe." Mint. Employees of such companies in India will also see some reductions. "Unemployment rate among those between 19 and 29 years old with a graduate degree stood at 29.1% in India in 2021-22," wrote Abhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore. "What makes matters worse is that unpaid work hides actual unemployment." Some are predicting a glorious future for India while the present is a struggle. Perhaps they are alchemists.
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