Friday, March 24, 2023

It's not due to global.

India's trade-to-GDP-ratio (TGR), "as an indicator of the openness of the economy, has been rising since 1990-91, peaking in a period from 2011 to 2014 at around 54-56%," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Anuradha Guru. However, "The combined value of exports and imports of goods and services for FY23 will likely exceed $1.6 trillion. With the likely size of India's nominal GDP at the end of FY23 around $3.4 trillion, India's overall TGR is likely to be around 47%." But, this is only because oil prices have fallen, reducing the cost of imports. With energy prices falling dramatically our exports should have risen. Not so. Between FY04 and FY12, "The annual growth rate of goods exports was 21%, and that of services was 23.2%. Since FY14, growth in merchandise exports has fallen to 11-14%. Mr Modi was elected for his first term in 2014 and for his second term in 2019. wikipedia. Does that explain the fall in trade? Of course not. It was because of weakness in the global economy following the Great Recession (Britannica). If the global economy was so weak why were China's exports rising continuously to $3.553 trillion (more than India's GDP) in 2021? macrotrends. China's exports to the US have been rising since 2008 with a dip in 2019 and 2020, presumably because of Covid, to a high of $536.754 billion in 2022. census.gov. "Latest numbers released by the commerce department estimated that in February, goods exports fell 8.9% to $33.9 billion, the steepest decline since October, while imports were 8.2% lower at $51.3 billion. TOI. "The government is optimistic, however, optimistic due to buoyant services exports, which jumped almost 37% to $36.9 billion in February, while imports rose 12% to $14.6 billion." New investment announcements as a share of GDP has fallen from a high of 56.8% in 2006-07 to 5.0% on 2020-21, rising to 9.2% in 2021-22, wrote Roshan Kishore. "The situation now, as seen in sharp fall in share of new investment announcements, is the opposite of 'irrational exuberance'. Simply speaking, the private sector has a pessimistic view about the economy's future and thus is unwilling to commit to new investments (much of the investment has been coming from the government)." "The needle on a dial measuring the so-called animal spirits was unchanged from January when it moved left after picking up speed for the last month of 2022, signaling weakening in domestic demand is becoming a concern.Eight high frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg showed moderating credit growth, weak tax revenues and a rising unemployment rate. ET. Perhaps, weakness of exports, consumption and the economy is because, "There has been a rise of 133 percent in collection of major cess and surcharges levied by the Central government on various products during the five year period between 2017-18 and 2022-23, as it went up from Rs 2,18,552 crore (Rs 2.186 trillion) in 2017-18 to Rs 5,10,549 crore (Rs 5.105 trillion) in 2022-23 according to Finance Ministry data." Huge tax increase causes high prices, hitting consumers and making exports too expensive. Why blame others when the disease is here? The cure is obvious. No one dares mention it.  

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