Tuesday, March 07, 2023

Should be a sacred duty.

"India's per capita income has doubled to Rs 1,72,000 in nominal terms since Narendra Modi-led NDA government came to power in 2014-15, according to the National Statistical Office (NSO)." TOI. This is "up from Rs 86,647 in 2014-15, suggesting an increase of about 99 percent." Is it time to bang pots and pans in celebration as we did in 2020? BBC. Not quite. Growth of per capita income was 5.6% per annum from 2014-2019, said Pinaki Chakraborty. But, high retail inflation eroded the value of earnings at about the same rate. macrotrends. Retail inflation rose to 6.52% in January 2023 from 5.72% in December. Reuters. This is also reflected in the value of the Indian rupee which has dropped from 62.33 against the US dollar in 2014 to 81.35 in December 2022. bookmyforex. Per capita means an average of the total income of the nation divided by its population. ET. So, if we take two Indians, one earning $1 billion and the other earning zero, the per capita income will be $500 million, instantly elevating a destitute beggar into a prince. That may seem facetious, until "Highlighting that the richest 21 Indian billionaires have more wealth than 700 million Indians, a new report from Oxfam states." TOI. The number of billionaires has jumped from 102 in 2020 to 166 in 2022 and their wealth surged by 121%, at Rs 36.08 billion per day in real terms. "Economist Jayati Ghosh emphasized that distribution is critical, and median wages are falling in real terms." Referring to the sequential decline in the rate of growth of the economy, Prof Raghuram Rajan commented that this is "dangerously close" to the 'Hindu rate of growth', a term coined by "economist Raj Krishna in 1978 to describe low Indian growth rates of about 4% in the 1960s and 1970s". The Wire. "A key economic indicator shows that only half of capital is now needed for the next unit of output in India, which is on a 'sound footing' and notions of 'Hindu rate of growth' is ill-conceived," said a research note from the State Bank of India (SBI). ET. For its riposte, the SBI has used the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) which "favors developing countries that can increase infrastructure and technology use as opposed to developed countries, which are operating at the highest level possible." Investopedia. Increased use of existing infrastructure is shown by the Capacity Utilisation, which has soared from 47.3% in June 2020 to 74% in September 2022, according to the Reserve Bank (RBI). CEIC. Also falling wages in real terms may have reduced the cost of production. If, as the SBI thunders, the economy is on a "sound footing", we should have more money to spend. But, "In the six years between 2014-15 and 2019-20, the economy's gross savings rate has come down from 32.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 29.9%," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Fell more after that due to Covid. It is the sacred duty of banks to protect our wealth. Not to act as a megaphone for the government. Or, it should be.   

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