Sunday, March 05, 2023

5% bigger than 7%.

"India can achieve the 7 percent GDP growth in current financial year as projected by the National Statistical Office, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said." ET. "The CEA said the country needs to grow at 4-4.1 percent in the March quarter to achieve 7 percent real GDP growth rate for the full financial year." This is so important because, "China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% on Sunday (yesterday) as it kicked-off the annual session of its National People's Congress (NPC)." Reuters. "China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by just 3% last year, one of its last showing in decades, one of its worst showing in decades, squeezed by three years of Covid-19 restrictions, crisis in its vast property sector, a crackdown on private enterprise and weakening demand for Chinese exports." This means that India is growing faster than China. Yah, boo. But, "India has already become the world's fifth largest economy in the 75th year of Independence and will reach the USD 3.5 trillion mark by end-March, said the Economic Survey." ET. China, on the other hand, is already the second-largest economy of the world with a nominal GDP of US$18 trillion. wikipedia. Which means that at 7% growth India will add about $250 billion to its economy while at 5% China will add a huge $900 billion. Since, "In two months, India is projected to become the world's most populous country with over 1.4 billion people," Reuters, China's GDP per capita will zoom even higher than that of India's. Even as there was a "weakening demand for Chinese exports", "Trade in goods between the US and China climbed to a record in 2022," as "Total merchandise trade between the two countries rose to $690.6 billion last year," while "The annual goods-trade deficit with China widened to $382.9 billion." ET. Meanwhile, "The trade between India and China touched an all-time high of USD 135.98 billion in 2022," while "The trade deficit for India stood at USD 101.02 billion, crossing the 2021 figure of USD 69.38 billion." ET. "The most recent data, namely, GDP growth for the quarter ending December 2022 came at 4.4%," wrote Chanakya. This is because "GDP growth rates for 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 have been revised upwards." If it hadn't been for the higher base the growth rate in the December quarter would have been 5.1%. "India's traditional area of strength appears to be presently locked into low end services and would need to move up the value chain in the manner China is doing in manufacturing," as well as develop "a vibrant manufacturing sector". wrote Alok Sheel. "If India were to grow at the very optimistic, and currently unlikely, rate of 9% going forward, and China were to slow down to 4%, the Indian economy would be 70% of China's size by mid-century." Absolute numbers give the game away. Better to talk in percentages. Just fool the people.

No comments: