Wishing for a boom.

"Contrary to the fashionable view that the Indian stock market will crater alongside the American stock market (as the Federal Reserve pursues aggressive rate tightening), we believe that India is more likely to follow that of Japan in the 1970s," wrote Saurabh Mukherjee. In 1973, the price of oil rose from $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel as the Organization of Arab Oil Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia imposed an oil embargo on countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War including Canada, Japan, the US, UK and the Netherlands, wikipedia. "Even as America and most of the developed world struggled through the 1970s, Japan, the world's third largest economy at that point in time, saw its stock market treble even though Japan faced higher energy prices than the US." But, is that a good thing? Japan's boom was followed by a bust. "Record-low interest rates and real estate speculation that sent valuations soaring throughout the 1980s," The Balance. "After the initial economic shock, Japan's economy was sent into its now-infamous lost decade." The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, which reached a high of over 35,000 during the boom, closed at 27,413 yesterday, moneycontrol. "The 1920s is the decade when America's economy grew 42%," The Balance. "Financial innovations allowed exuberant investment in the stock market, which supported rapid growth for many companies and the labor sector." The roaring '20s ended in the Great Depression from 1929 to 1939, a stock market crash and with World War 11, Britannica. India's stock market index, the Sensex, reached a record high of 61,963 before closing at 61,766 on 18 October 2021, TOI. The Sensex is at 56,278 this morning, BSE. "Indian house prices are set to accelerate this year to a pace not seen in half a decade, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts," ET. "Home prices were expected to increase 7.5% nationally this year." "Wealthy Indians, who made money on the stock market or through their investments in tech, did not have a chance to spend it on overseas vacations or other indulgences in the pandemic. Instead they chose to splurge on luxury cars from Audi to Lamborghini," DH. "From queues at fast fashion brands offering full-priced merchandise to longer wait periods at restaurants, Indians are shopping and eating out significantly higher than before the Covid pandemic that marketers call revenge consumption after a hiatus of nearly two years," ET. Stock markets have become like gambling, according to Vijay Kedia. "About 95 percent of people have become legitimate gamblers with their mobile phones all over the world led by the US. It is like playing poker or teen patti (three card gambling game)," he said. If we wish for an asset price boom, don't we wish for a bust? Tempting fate.