Status quo will be good.

"In the 2010s the US comeback was striking. Its share of the global economy rose from a low of 21 - 25%, and its share of global stock markets rose from 42% to 58%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "Easy money gushed from the US Federal Reserve and into financial markets, widening wealth inequality, deepening the national addiction to debt, further fueling the rise of monopolies and a new generation of 'zombie' companies." While developed economies are stagnating, "In the coming decade the world's fastest growing economies will still be found in the emerging world." During the pandemic, "Emerging markets which stimulated most aggressively got no payoff in a faster recovery, owing in part to the downsides of overindulging. India was not among the biggest spenders, which tended to suffer higher inflation, higher interest rates and currency depreciation, at least partly canceling out the sugar high of stimulus," Sharma wrote in October. "India is currently what the World Bank describes as a lower middle income country. The average income of an India was $1,935 in 2020," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now estimates that number will go up to $3,769 in 2027," and "is expected to cross $4,000 towards the end of the decade". "India will thus be on the cusp of becoming an upper middle income country." "About a decade ago, Larry Summers and fellow Harvard economist Lant Prtichard pooh-poohed what they called 'Asiaphoria'. They predicted that it was more likely that Chinese and Indian growth rates would over the years revert close to the global mean," wrote Rahul Jacob. "Since 2017-18, the absolute number of farm workers in India has risen by more than 40 million, though economic emergence should have meant a decline. Instead of the world's largest middle class, we have the world's largest number of subsistence laborers with few other options." "All's well on the economic front. Or so the 8.7% real gross domestic product growth for 2021-22 seems to say," wrote Vivek Kaul. But, "GDP contracted by 6.6% in 2020-21." So, "the size of the economy in 2021-22 was just 1.5% bigger than in 2019-20, the pre-pandemic year." Indian startups are floundering. "The Indian growth story that has been sold to us over the years can be summarized in one line: There are lots of Indians and we can sell them something. The trouble is that many Indians are not in a position to buy fintechs or for that matter other startups sell," wrote Kaul. India cannot export processed foods because of very high taxes, wrote Arpita Mukerjee & Eshana Mukherjee. "India is one of the largest producers of horticultural products: production was 334.6 million tonnes in 2020-21, an increase of 4.4% from 2019-20." But, "Australia. for example, has a standard 10% tax on all goods. In India, zero sugar carbonated drinks and carbonated fruit-based drinks attract 40% tax (20% GST + 12% compensation cess)." Taxes make goods too expensive to export so farmers stay poor. We will be lucky if we reach the cusp of upper middle income by 2030. As long as we don't go down.