Saturday, June 04, 2022

Ours is different.

In the US, "Since prices started to escalate a year ago, politicians and economists have seized on inflation to tell their preferred story about what went wrong," ET. "Some say it's very straightforward: Supply and demand, Economics 101." "The White House and progressive organizations, however, say: In a time of extraordinary disruption, they contend, increasingly dominant corporations are taking the opportunity to jack up prices more than they otherwise could, which is squeezing consumers and supercharging inflation. Or 'greedflation', as the hypothesis has come to be known." Indians are too poor for excessive greedflation. "Over 94 percent of 27.69 crore (276.9 million) informal sector workers registered on the e-Shram portal have a monthly income of Rs 10,000, (about $129 per month, or $4.3 per day), or below," ET. Anyone earning over $1.90 per day is above the international poverty line. "The World Bank now reports on two-higher value poverty lines: $3.20 and $5.50 per day. These lines, which are typical of standards among lower- and upper-middle-income countries, respectively, are designed to complement, not replace, the $1.90 international poverty line." "India's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market's value growth fell 16.5% sequentially in May compared with the month of April, signalling reduced consumer spends on daily essentials due to rising prices across products," ET. "Even for electronics such as air-conditioners and refrigerators, sales fell up to 15% in May on a sequential month comparison, industry executives said." Most pundits in India are of the opinion that inflation is being caused by problems in supply, which is partly true, so raising interest rates is of no use. In fact, "RBI needs to be complimented for perhaps being the only central bank to have gone against conventional wisdom and maintained a soft stance. That's a relief since high interest rates are now not called for," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh. The fiscal deficit, which means government borrowing, was 6.71% of GDP in 2021-22, lower than 6.9% projected in the budget, BS. "This marks a sharp departure from the earlier fiscal deficit projection of 3.3 percent of GDP by 2021-22," TIE. In 2021, the government set out a 'glide path' to get it down to 4.5% by 2025-26. However, higher borrowing increases debt and interest payments. So, the government has little room to borrow, "Unless a high-ish inflation, trending at a rate higher than the yields on government bonds, inflates the debt away faster, creating the headroom for the government to expand fiscal intervention," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. Soaring prices mean falling value of the rupee. "The chances of a large exchange rate depreciation of the Rupee are relatively low at this stage; India has built a fortress in terms of forex reserves," said Rob Subbaraman. Our foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.854 billion to $601.363 billion in the week ended 27 May, BS. That is huge, but foreign investors hold $582 billion of stocks in NSE500, even after reducing their holdings from 21.4% to 19.9%, BS. India's 'greedflation' is different. Here it is the government's.  

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