Not so black.

"Capital outflows to the tune of $100 billion (around Rs 7,80,000 crore or Rs 7.8 trillion) are likely to take place from India in a major global risk scenario or a black swan event, says a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) study," TIE. "A black swan event is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences," Investopedia. "The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader." Who "argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict because of their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and plan accordingly." Which means insurance, which is a "hedge against the risk of a contingent or uncertain loss", wikipedia. The RBI feels that there is a 5% chance "of portfolio outflows from India of the order of 3.2 percent of GDP or $100.6 billion in a year in response to a Covid-type contraction in real GDP growth or a GFC (global financial crisis) type decline in interest rate differential vis-a-vis the US or a GFC type surge in the volatility index (VIX)." On 15 June, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rate by 75 basis points, a total of 150 basis points since March, CNBC. The RBI on the other hand has hiked its interest rate by a total of 90 basis points, BT, thus reducing the interest rate differential with the US deliberately. If necessary, burn foreign exchange reserves, advised Sanjeev Sanyal, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. Excellent advice. Will that be in addition to the $100 billion waiting to flee? "Crisis-hit Sri Lankan government has announced a shut-down of public sector offices from next week, beginning Monday, due to severe fuel shortages as the island nation continues to reel under its worst economic crisis," ET. Government approved schools are also shut because of prolonged power cuts. In Pakistan, Utility Stores sell subsidised ghee at Rs 300 per kg. "Each customer was to be allowed two pouches of one kilogram each, along with some other items - sugar, toothpaste, soap bars, detergent, etc - on subsidised rates," Dawn. Instead of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, "China could choose to invade some, or all, of Taiwan's outlying islands," ET. "Beijing could also choose to implement a full blockade of the Taiwan Strait, preventing anything from getting in or out." "The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog agency said...that Iran is removing 27 surveillance cameras from nuclear sites in the country," ET. Iran is also building a network of tunnels at its Natanz nuclear site "immune to cyberattacks and all but the most powerful bunker-busting American bombs", Haaretz. Those are known black swans. "Federal Reserve policymakers are less confident than at any time since the height of the pandemic about what will happen with the economy," Reuters. This is VIX. It's all black and white, really. The RBI should just do its job. Instead of excuses.