Thursday, June 09, 2022

The makeup of GDP growth.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said India's fundamentals are sound due to several steps taken by the government," Mint. On 5 June 2021, she said, "India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound, which is reflected in the robust investment flows into the country," BS. On 7 June, she said that "retail investors have been acting like 'shock absorbers' in countering the impact of withdrawal of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the Indian market. FPIs have pulled out around $24 billion so far 2022," TOI. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks," William Shakespeare. "It is possible for the size of the Indian economy to be $20 trillion by 2040," "with a per capita income of $15,000", Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Anantha Nageswaran said. "According to the World Bank, India's per capita income in 2020 was $1,927.70," TOI. In 2022, India's GDP is estimated at $2.66 trillion, Global Peo Services. The government and the Reserve bank (RBI) only talk about the rate of growth, Scroll, and don't publish absolute numbers in rupees and dollars, to confuse us. Assuming a GDP of $3 trillion, a growth rate of 7% will take it to just over $10 trillion by 2040 (18 years), investor. gov, and a growth rate of 8% will take it to just shy of $12 trillion. On 8 June, the RBI "raised the benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.90% to tamp down inflation", HT. "Markets have welcomed the policy, with yields declining after its announcement," wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, a government bank. RBI could have been forced by the bond market. "India's bond yields are rising at the fastest pace since the 2008 global financial crisis as investors bake in the likelihood of stubborn inflation and higher-than-budgeted federal borrowing," ET. The benchmark bond yield touched 7.52% on 7 June. It is slightly lower at 7.496%, with a normal yield curve, this morning, World Government Bonds. "The good thing is that" "Capacity utilization rates have now moved up to 74.5%, with new investment announcements at a record high of Rs 20 trillion in 2021-22 and India manufacturing sector leading from the front," wrote Ghosh. "The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year-high of 1.8% or USD 43.81 billion in FY22," ET. "India's investment to GDP ratio (in nominal terms, not adjusting for inflation) has been falling for years, having peaked at 35.8% in 2007-08," wrote Vivek Kaul. "For the period between 2015-16 to 2019-20, it stagnated between 28% and 29%." 'It crashed to 26.6% in 2020-21 due to the covid pandemic. In 2021-22 it recovered to 28.6% which is where it was back in 2019-20 as well." Investment by households, which is a measure of small firms, has fallen from 15.9% of GDP in 2011-12 to 10.3% in 2020-21. Labor force participation rate, which shows people working or looking for work, fell from 53% in 2011 to 46% in 2021, and the number of households looking for work under the MGNREGS scheme, a backstop for unemployed rural residents, was "34.4% more than the work demanded in the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20". GDP growth is like makeup. Hides all the pimples, TOI.  

No comments: