Friday, November 12, 2021

Won't India be richer if every Indian has more money?

"In its latest World Economic Outlook report, .... the IMF said that Indian economy is expected to grow by 9.5% in 2021 and 8.5% in the next year," TOI. "Stating that growth impulses and the fast moving economic indicators are strong, Reserve Bank (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday exuded confidence in the economy clipping at the projected 9.5 percent growth this fiscal," BS. "Buoyed by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing, India's economy is expected to grow by 8.3 percent in the fiscal year 2021-22, less than the previous projection early this year before the country was hit by the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has said in its latest report," BS. Disagreeing with these institutions, "NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar said the Indian economy is expected to grow beyond 10% in this fiscal, supported by a record kharif crop, bright rabi prospects and strong rebound in trade," ET. Presumably, they are all talking about Real GDP growth which is calculated by adjusting the Nominal GDP for inflation, Lumen. The adjustment is called GDP Deflator, which is rise in prices over a base year, wikipedia. This means that if the real GDP growth is to be 10% and GDP Deflator is calculated at 5%, then the nominal GDP has to be growing at a scorching 15%. All these prophecies are moot, wrote Ruchir Sharma, GDP growth does not indicate happiness or well being of the people, which depend on how rich individuals are, or by GDP per capita. GDP per capita "is a measure of a country's economic output that accounts for its number of people. It divides the country's gross domestic product by its total population," The Balance. "The latest World Happiness Report ranks just one country with per capita GDP under $15,000 (Costa Rica) in the top 25, and none with per capita GDP over $15,000 in the bottom 70," wrote Sharma. According to World Bank data, India's per capita GDP was a mere $1,900.7 in 2020. No wonder, "India has been ranked 139 out of 149 countries in the list of UN World Happiness Report 2021," India Today. A study in 2010 suggested that people feel happier with more money up till an income of $75,000 per year per person, but "a 2018 study from Purdue University" found "that the ideal income point for individuals is $95,000 for life satisfaction and $60,000 to $75,000 for emotional well-being", CNBC. "Yet among advanced economies, higher income does show clear tie to higher happiness score. The higher income Swiss and Norwegians are happier than the somewhat less rich Germans and French," wrote Sharma. As populations shrink, total GDP will fall and inflation may rise but per capita GDP may remain at the same level. In Japan, "The number of Japanese decreased 428,617 to 123,842,701 in the 12th straight year of decline, with deaths outnumbering births in the greying society," Japan Times. However, per capita GDP has been rising since 2015 to 2019, after falling sharply from its highest point in 2012, macrotrends. Which means, all this blather about GDP growth is to cover up that Indians are miserable. Reduce taxes so we have more money. Bingo, India will be rich.        

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