Monday, November 15, 2021

It's a real smorgasbord.

"Wholesale (WPI) inflation climbed to a five-month high of 12.54% in October on the back of a rise in prices of fuel and power, vegetable oils and chemicals, government data showed on Monday," ET. "This is the seventh consecutive month in which wholesale inflation has stayed in double digits. It was 10.66% the previous month and 1.31% in October 2020." WPI inflation rate was so high this year because it is in comparison to the rise in the same month last, which is called base effect. This is opposite of consumer price (CPI) inflation which "rose 4.48 percent in October 2021 from 4.35% in September, mainly due to higher fuel and edible oil price", NDTV. However, CPI inflation rate benefited from base effect because it was 7.61% in October 2020, "while food inflation was at 11 percent in the year-ago period". "Wholesale fuel and power inflation accelerated to 37.18% in October from 24.81% a month earlier, while core inflation moved up to an all-time high of 11.9% and manufacturing inflation came in at 12%," ET. "Activity in the country's manufacturing sector rose at its fastest pace in eight months in October on the back of new orders as demand improved and the economic recovery gathered strength, a survey showed," TOI. "At 55.9 in October, the IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was in expansion territory for the fourth month in a row." Unfortunately, "Industrial growth moderated sharply to a seven-month low of 3.1% in September from over 12% in August, hit by the strong monsoon in the month that dented economic activity, component shortages that hit the automobile sector, and the waning base effect that had boosted growth in recent months," ET. "Production of capital goods grew 1.3% in September while that of consumer durables contracted 2%, reflecting the impact of the chip shortage." "India's exports rose by 43 percent to USD 35.65 billion in October while trade deficit widened to USD 19.73 billion during the month, according to official data," ET. "Imports soared by 62.51 percent to USD 55.37 billion widening the trade deficit." From April to October 2021, exports rose 55.13% to $233.54 billion, while imports rose by 78.16% to $331.39 billion. If it weren't for money sent by Indians living or working abroad to their families in India, our balance of payments would not have been so large. "India received USD 83 billion in remittances in 2020, a drop of just 0.2 percent from the previous year, despite a pandemic that devastated the world economy, according to a World Bank report," BS. "The balance of payments (BoP) transactions consist of imports and export of goods, services, and capital, as well as transfer payments, such as foreign aid and remittances," Investopedia. "In 2020-21, there was an accretion of US$87.3 billion to foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis)," Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "India's widening current account deficit, driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD (current account deficit) forecast to USD 45 billion or 1.4 percent of GDP by March," BS. Is the economy improving or not? We can call it a smorgasbord. Doesn't matter to most people.         

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