Monday, November 01, 2021

Running India must be the easiest job in the world.

"Ahead of Diwali, the Indian job market is seeing a record bounceback from Covid-19 lows on the back of increased business optimism, economic recovery and mass vaccination rollout," ET. "Job openings are at a new high and the competition for talent -- especially those in technology -- is at a level not seen in many years, more than half-a-dozen recruitment firms and job sites told ET." "This frenzy is something we haven't seen in the last two decades," said Sanjay Shetty, Randstadt India. "The senior global management of several large consumer-facing companies said their India businesses have recovered rapidly after the second wave of the pandemic," ET. "A number of these companies, including Apple, Unilever, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Visa, Pernod Ricard, Hershey, Kimberley-Clark and Yum Brands, whose performance indicates consumer sentiment, have posted strong year-on-year growth in India sales in July-September quarter." In August last year, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said that the mindset of free India should be 'vocal for local' to achieve the goal of 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' (self-reliant India)," TOI. "Some of India's top lenders and shadow finance companies are helping fuel demand among consumers wanting to splurge on everything from clothes to two-wheelers and homes, offering hopes of a consumption-driven recovery in Asia's third-largest economy," ET. "Businesses are expecting sales during Diwali will pick up to levels seen before the pandemic struck early last year." "Borrowers want to take advantage of record low interest rates, an improving labor market as lockdowns ease and a better economic outlook as vaccinations gather pace." "The center's fiscal deficit hit a four-year low of Rs 5.26 lakh crore (Rs 5.26 trillion), or 35% of the budget estimates, at the end of the first half of FY22, helped by buoyant tax revenues," ET. "Revenues almost doubled to Rs 10.8 lakh crore (Rs 10.8 trillion) in the first six months from Rs 5.5 lakh crore last fiscal, outpacing the 10% rise in expenditure, helping compress the fiscal deficit." So, all hunky-dory, as we Indians say? Er, not quite. "If there is one chart that tells us that India still has a major consumption problem," then it is "two-wheeler sales between April and September this year were at around 6.52 million units," lower than 6.55 million units in 2011, wrote Vivek Kaul. Bank loans against gold jewellery has gone up by 137% between August 2019 and August 2021, to Rs 62,926 crore (Rs 629.26 billion). "Borrowing against gold is the last thing Indians resort to, after all options have run out." In September 2011, InMobi, an ad-tech mobile company, became the first unicorn, market valuation over $1 billion, in India. By December 2020 there were 37 unicorns, while "just the bygone 10 months of 2021 have seen this figure nearly doubling to 71. In other words, 2021 has seen the birth of one unicorn every 10 days," DH. Most of these unicorns are aggregators, and "The problem is that these aggregators can only promise delivery of real economy products to consumers (cars, food, electronic goods) whose growth is determined by the real economy," wrote Prof Manoj Pant. "As the Indian middle class rushes to move out of low-yielding bank financial assets, it maybe advisable to watch out for 'irrational exuberance' in our stock markets." Indians now have less belief in the country's economic future and "the booming stock market does not reflect the reality that many Indians are in distress", said Prof Raghuram Rajan, Outlook. Most Indians don't understand. Tell them they are paying more taxes and they are happy. Running India so easy.   

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