Monday, November 29, 2021

It's impossible, Until it is not.

"Until a few months ago, inflation talk was little more than a murmur", but "Now the discussion is urgent, as news of rising price levels comes in from economies around the world, including Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, India, and, most importantly, the US," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. In the US, consumer inflation has increased from 0.12% on 31 May 2020 to 5.39% on 30 September 2021 to 6.22% on 31 October 2021, YCharts. "As measured by the CPI, the annual rate of inflation from October 2020 to October 2021 was 6.2 percent. As measured by the PCE deflator, the annual inflation from September 2020 to September 2021 (most recent available data) was 4.4 percent," wrote Wendy Edelberg. "But because the factors that are leading to inflation are pandemic-related and therefore temporary, the current trend does not forecast the future." However, "During three months preceding September, the US saw higher  wage increases than any time in the last 20 years. Workers have gained a stronger bargaining position, and have even stayed away from the labour market when their wage demands have been unmet," Basu. Surely, wage inflation will result in higher costs and force companies to pass that on in higher prices? "Turkey has an alarming annual inflation of 19.9%." "Turkey's lira crashed to a record low of 13.44 to the dollar..., a level once unfathomable and well past what was...deemed the 'psychological' barrier of 11 to the dollar," CNBC. "The sell-off was triggered after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended his central bank's continued contentious interest rate cuts amid rising double digit inflation." A Reuters poll of 15 economists forecast inflation at 20.7% last month, ranging from 19.3% to 21.06%. "Overall inflation is being pushed higher by a rise in prices of processed food like bread, rent and fuel as well as the lira depreciation to record low levels as the central bank" has cut the repo rate to 15%, "down from 19% before September's initial cut". In India, retail inflation rose to 4.48% in October from 4.35% in September, NDTV, while "Wholesale inflation in October surged to 12.54% year-on-year from 10.66% a month ago and 1.31% in October 2020," ET. Numbers can be deceptive. "Prices of nearly half the items used to compute India's retail inflation are rising at alarming rates of more than 6% a year, a Mint analysis shows, even as headline retail inflation has slipped close to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4% target." "Prices of daily essentials, including tomatoes and milk and along with edible oils and transport fuels have skyrocketed across the country. The price rise has adversely affected the financial health of ordinary middle-class families in India," India.com. Trouble is, inflation was high before the pandemic started and "These price pressures continued to stay elevated during the pandemic despite a complete collapse of demand," TIE. These prices have seeped into core inflation which excludes volatile food and fuel, ET. "So adjusted, core inflation for September 2021 stands at 5.12% (versus 5.89% unadjusted), and has held steady at an average of 5.09% over June to September," Mint. The solution is for the government to reduce taxes on fuel, which constitute 50% of the price, ET, and for the RBI to increase interest rate, which has been clamped at 4% since 22 May 2020, HT. But, neither is going to happen. And, Turkey is not too far from India.   

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