Thursday, November 04, 2021

They may gamble, but the US Fed is the croupier.

"The Centre announced cuts in excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 5 and Rs 10, respectively, giving a Diwali-eve reprieve to consumers across the country from all-time high fuel prices they've been paying in the past few months," ET. "Since May 2020, prices of petrol and diesel have risen by Rs 38.85 and Rs 29.35 per litre, respectively. On Wednesday, petrol was being sold at Rs 110.04 per litre in Delhi and Rs 115.85 per litre in Mumbai. Diesel sold for Rs 98.42 in Delhi and Rs 106.62 in Mumbai." Why, and why now? Why is the tax deduction on diesel double that on petrol when diesel was cheaper already? On 1 November, petrol was selling at an average of $3.5 per gallon in the US while the average price of diesel was at around $4 per gallon, eia. In Europe, while petrol was more expensive than diesel in most countries, including France, Germany and Italy, it was cheaper in Slovenia, Sweden and the UK, tollseu. In India, food and beverages contribute 45.86 points out of 100 to the basket of the consumer price index, while transport and communication contribute 8.59 points and fuel and light contribute 6.84 points, Number Basket. Since most of fruits, vegetables and beverages move by trucks, which run on diesel, rising price of diesel will raise retail inflation and may result in a fall in the value of the rupee, while petrol is used in private vehicles, so who cares. Record prices of petrol maybe one reason why two-wheeler sales are down. "Hero MotoCorp, the largest two-wheeler brand in the country, sold 5,47,970 units of scooters and motorcycles in India last month, noting a 32 percent drop in sales compared to October 2020 when the company sold 8,06,848 units," timesnow. The government's sudden benevolence could also have something to do with the US Federal Reserve which said on Wednesday that "it will begin paring back its monthly bond purchases this month to end them in 2022. But it stuck to its long-held view that high inflation would prove 'transitory' and likely not require a fast rise in interest rates, prompting investors to call it a 'dovish taper'," ET. "On interest rates, (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell rejected the thinking of leaders at several other leading central banks and several of his own colleagues. They think that excess demand in the economy is a big part of the inflation problem and that rate increases would help address it -- and that current high inflation could become ingrained in decision-making, with long lasting consequences," ET. Investors in the US are jittery. "It's a dangerous game when financial conditions are this loose, the economy is doing this well and inflationary pressures are this high, to be running monetary policy for a crisis-like environment," said Troy Gayeski, chief market strategist for FS Investments, Reuters. Powell's term is to end in early 2022 and President Joe Biden has to decide whether to renew his term or to appoint someone else to control inflation before mid-term elections to the House and the Senate in November 2022, NBC. In India, the government has already rewarded Governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI) Shaktikanta Das with a three-year extension to his contract for his sterling service in steadfastly ignoring persistently high retail inflation because inflation reduces government debt through higher tax revenue on higher prices of goods and services, as well as higher income tax collections on rising wages,  and a fall in the value of its debt because of a fall in the value of its currency, Kahler. Playing with the currency is pure gambling. And gamblers generally lose.   

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