Thursday, September 09, 2021

How to get a V? The world should learn from us.

"Despite a more brutal second wave in India, a resilient V-shaped recovery is still intact said the Finance Ministry in its Monthly Report for August," Economic Times (ET). "The fast pace growth is evident, the Fin Min believes, due to growth in power consumption, rail freight, highway toll collections, e-way bills, digital transactions, and also robust GST collections. The momentum is marked by the PMI hitting an 18-month high of 56.7, comfortable agricultural prospects with Kharif sowing, and markets reflecting India's fundamentals, the report states." For those of us who are not economists, it is hard to understand how increase in tax collections in the form of highway tolls, e-way bills and GST, can be a sign of robust growth. "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) or retail inflation cooled to a 3-month low of 5.59% in July 2021 due to a steep drop in food prices. The CPI was at 6.26% in June 2021 and 6.73% in July 2020," IIFL Securities. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) "reached below the 12% mark and came is at 11.16% in July this year," IIFL Securities. Since inflation is compounded on last year's prices it means prices have soared, which explains the rise in tax collections. US citizens, earning up to $75,000 (over Rs 6 million) per year, received direct cash benefits of $1,200 in March 2020, $600 in December 2020, and another $1,400 in April this year, CNBC. While US citizens were receiving cash gifts from their government, "Delhi Traffic Police collected Rs 235 crore (Rs 2.35 billion) through on-the-spot challans and notices issued for violation of traffic rules as against Rs 188 crore (Rs 1.88) billion in 2019, a 25% increase," Times of India (TOI) on 31 December 2020. This, when traffic density in 2020 would have been less than half that in 2019 because of lockdowns. In addition, "In a bid to enforce Covid-19 protocols in the national capital, the city police has collected over Rs 27 crore (Rs 270 million) in fines between April 19 and June 20 this year, with over 900,000 challans issued for the violations, the Delhi High Court was informed," Hindustan Times (HT). Mumbai Traffic Police collected Rs 10 million in two weeks by going door to door, Indian Express. Instead of directing traffic to ensure smooth flow, allow chaos by collecting door-to-door, and issue more fines for minor offences, collecting even more. King Midas would have been proud. Amazingly, collecting ransom from hapless citizens counts as GDP growth. "In the five months from April to August in the current financial year, when the economy was apparently roaring its way to recovery, 64 million families had at least one family member toiling all day in the sun to earn a paltry Rs 200 under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee (MGNREGA) programme," wrote Praveen Chakravarty of the Congress. MGNREGA is a scheme to provide paid work to the rural unemployed for 150 days in a year, wikipedia. "Latest CSO (Central Statistics Office) data show that manufacturing activity in June 2021 is at the same level as four years ago in 2017, construction activity is at the level five years ago in 2016, and trade/transport services activity is at the level of six years ago in 2015 (at constant prices)." "It is well established that free, phantom money created by the United States is finding its way to other countries, pushing up asset prices and financial market valuations." The stock market indices, BSE Sensex at 58,305 and Nifty at 17,357, are both at record levels, Business Standard. "A fresh Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million) investment in the stock market may push the Sensex up but it produces no extra job, the same investment in a steel manufacturer will produce one new job, in an auto manufacturer will produce three new jobs, in a leather goods company will create 70 new jobs, and in a textile-maker will create 240 new jobs, including 80 for women." "Within retail loans, the gold loan outstanding soared by 77.4 percent, or Rs 27,223 crore, to Rs 62,412 crore (Rs 624.12 billion) by July 2021 on a year-on-year basis, Indian Express. When Indians borrow against gold it means extreme financial stress. The US gives money to citizens, we snatch it away. And, get a V. The world should learn.         

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