Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Other central banks are thinking of tightening. The RBI isn't.

"Inequality is discussed at two levels: income and wealth," wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. "Gini coefficient (wikipedia), the usual measure of income inequality in the developed world, is far less skewed once fiscal transfers are taken into consideration. Yes, fiscal policy is doing its job." Fiscal transfers are cash payments to people, who lost their jobs due to the pandemic, by governments, as in the US, pgdpf.org. In March 2021, US lawmakers "gave final approval to a new $14 billion payroll assistance package to US airlines as part of a COVID-19 relief bill," which means that "Congress has awarded US airlines $54 billion for payroll costs since March 2020", Reuters. This was done to protect jobs in airlines. "The real issue is wealth inequality, and the quantitative easing (QE) policies of central banks have a key role in fomenting and perpetuating it," Nageswaran. "Quantitative Easing (QE) is a form of unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases longer-term securities from the open market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment," Investopedia. In its July meeting, the US Federal Reserve held its Funds Rate to near zero, CNBC. "As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee concluded its two-day meeting by keeping interest rates in a target range between zero and 0.25%." "Central banks have seemed to assume that any adverse shock justifies another round of bond buying. QE has become a universal remedy for almost any macroeconomic setback," wrote former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King, who oversaw the creation of the housing bubble in 2008, because of extremely low interest rates (wikipedia), and the bailout of banks that followed the financial collapse. "Today, policymakers are struggling to explain how or even whether QE will be unwound. They're rightly concerned about triggering a sharp market reaction to signals that asset purchases will be tapered," King. "Apparently, the plan now is to reduce QE before interest rates are raised." "Investors are fixated this week on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting as the US central bank approaches the final quarter of the year, when it is expected to begin paring back its unprecedented level of bond purchases as the first step towards normalizing monetary policy," Reuters. Investors are keen to know how fast the Fed intends to stop its asset purchases and its prediction for when it will start raising its Funds rate. "A bond market tantrum that drives up yields can be a fearsome prospect for central banks but the US Federal Reserve might just welcome a sell-off that lifts Treasury yields towards levels that better reflect the robust state of the economy," Reuters. The Federal Funds rate is the rate at which commercial banks lend their excess reserves to other banks overnight, Investopedia. The Funds rate influences the rate of interest banks charge their customers which affects the entire economy," The Balance. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sets the repo rate at which it lends to commercial banks and thus regulates money supply, Economic Times. After one of the strictest lockdowns last year the government announced a stimulus package, apparently worth Rs 20 trillion, but the actual spending of the government amounted to Rs 3.10 trillion which was just 1.55% of GDP, Indian Express. Finance Minister Nrimala Sitharaman announced a mini stimulus in July this year but "The direct stimulus in the package adds up to 0.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP)," wrote Puja Mehra. While developed economies helped their citizens with cash subsidies the Indian government has been collecting trillions of rupees through higher taxes on fuel, Business Standard. By keeping real interest rates at negative the RBI is deliberately taking money away from people (india,com), while the government does the same through taxes. Easy to blame rich countries. The real culprits are right here.   

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