Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Whatever it is, it's not working.

"Leaders of the group of 20 (G20) nations are set to meet next month in Rome to finalize a landmark deal to overhaul the global tax landscape," wrote Puneet Kumar Arora. India is a member of the G20, which "collectively accounts for around 90 percent of gross world product (GWP), 75-80 percent of international trade, two-thirds of the world population and half the world's land area", wikipedia. "The deal also seeks to put in place a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15% to ensure that MNEs (multinational enterprises) pay at least that minimum, even when they operate in low-tax jurisdictions." "In its present form the deal only covers MNEs with a global annual turnover of 20 billion euros," and will mostly benefit US, Germany and France where large MNCs do most of their business. India will lose revenue under the deal because we collect higher taxes under our 'equalization levy'. India launched a 'Make in India' program in 2015 with a view to increase growth in manufacturing by 12-14% per year, create 100 million new jobs by 2022 and to increase share of manufacturing in India's GDP to 25% by 2022, wikipedia. "India's growth since liberalisation in 1991 has been largely powered by a comparatively small and high-skills services sector, which contributes about 54% to the country's GDP. In comparison, the share of manufacturing has remained stagnant at about 17%," scroll.in. In 2017, a study found that "The median gross hourly wage in the manufacturing sector....was  Rs 254.04, about 9% less than the median wage for the entire Indian economy taken together (Rs 279.7)." In terms of gross value added (GVA) the share of manufacturing in India's GDP plummeted to just 13% in 2020, World Bank. "Imports of telephones had risen from $3.2 billion in 2009 to $7.5 billion in 2014 and have fallen to $2.2 billion in 2020. Alongside, exports had fallen from $3.5 billion in 2009 to $0.6 billion in 2014 and risen to $3.0 billion in 2020," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya & and Deepak Mishra. This should indicate that the Make in India initiative has been wildly successful except that tiny Vietnam, a country less than one-tenth of India's size, has reported that "From just $0.9 billion in 2009, its telephone exports rose to $21.5 billion in 2014 and to 31.2 billion in 2020. Its electronics goods exports stood at $ 122 billion in 2020 against India's $12.8 billion." "How has Vietnam achieved this success? Whereas Indian leaders routinely express regret at having signed free trade agreements (FTAs) even with countries accounting for a minuscule proportion of the country's trade, tiny Vietnam has boldly embraced such economic giants as China and the European Union in FTAs. It also has FTAs with every single Asian country of significance." The budget in 2020-21 saw import tariffs on electric appliances and kitchenware doubled to 20%, while tariffs on import of furniture went up from 20% to 25%. "This is called import substitution industrialisation (ISI), a trade policy that is all about substituting imports with domestic manufacturing," canarahsbclife.com. Domestic business tycoons love it because Indian consumers are prevented from buying higher quality goods at lower prices from abroad, and domestic companies can sell shoddy goods at higher prices. Crony capitalism rampant. "Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has confirmed that India and the UK are moving towards an early harvest trade agreement, with a comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) the next step," Economic Times (ET). To qualify as whisky in the UK, it has to mature for at least 3 years, but high temperatures result in high evaporation and costs of storage and logistics are very high in India. "The UK and EU have allowed the import of 'un-aged' Indian whisky, but it is known as 'Spirit Drink' or 'Indian Spirits' and cannot even be called Indian whisky," wrote Arpita Mukherjee. In retaliation India has banned imported liquor at Canteen Stores Department of the armed forces but allows it for paramilitary forces. "India's merchandise exports rose 45.8 percent in August at $33.28 billion" but imports rose by a whopping 51.72% to $47.09 billion, resulting in trade deficit of $8.2 billion, ET. Seems that import substitution is increasing imports.     

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