Friday, September 10, 2021

Easy to breed poisonous snakes. Can it charm them?

"The war in Afghanistan was not against an insurgency, but a proxy war waged by Pakistan against Afghanistan, the US and coalition forces using Taliban, a radical Islamic militia created by ISI," wrote Lawrence Sellin. Which means that, "as long as Pakistan controlled the supply lines to Afghanistan and the Taliban command, control and support network inside Pakistan remained immune to attack, US defeat was inevitable." "Now in the power vacuum created by US withdrawal from Afghanistan, China aims to dominate South Asia, first economically based on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and then militarily using its military bases in Balochistan." So, who won the war in Afghanistan? "There is the Taliban, of course, the fanatics who have formed an interim government featuring several wanted terrorists. But an even bigger winner maybe the Taliban's primary patron: Pakistan," Economic Times (ET). "Between 2001 and 2011, the US provided Pakistan with more than $20 billion in military assistance." "So far, the Biden administration has kept silent about Pakistan's betrayal," because the US will need to fly over Pakistan's airspace for its "over the horizon" capability of bombing Taliban. It's not as bad as it seems, wrote Ajai Sahni. "Global terrorism peaked in 2014, with Daesh the most active influence, but has since seen steady decline." "The simple reality is that Pakistan based and backed groups are the principal Islamist terrorist threat to India, and these have also lost momentum over the past two decades due to a multiplicity of factors, including increasing international pressure on Islamabad." "Pakistan is now stuck in a classic catch-22 situation, where the West will hold it to its promise of control over the Taliban and of ensuring inclusivity," wrote SP Vaid. And, Pakistan must be aware that "Indian strategists would be counselling their diplomats and intelligence agencies to sell old wine -- the idea of Pashtoonistan --  in a new bottle to the Taliban regime. An informal comment was made by the Taliban spokesperson that it was opposed to fencing the Durand Line." The Durand line was drawn by the British and marks the boundary between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Britannica. "The most important ministry in present day Afghanistan is the Interior ministry which went to one of the most wanted terrorists -- Sirajuddin Haqqani," wrote Major (Retd) Amit Bansal. "His proximity to Pakistan can be judged from the fact that he has been operating from his headquarters located in North Waziristan and that his entire command is located well inside Pakistan." It will be difficult for the Taliban to obtain legitimacy. "It is quite tempting to believe today that the spoils of the Afghan war belong to the presumed victor --Pakistan. But it is also possible to argue that the opposite is true -- that Pakistan is now part of the Afghan spoils," wrote C Raja Mohan. "Meanwhile, the grand political obsession with destabilising its neighbours has made Pakistan's economy fall well behind that of Bangladesh. India's GDP is 10 times larger than that of Pakistan today." The Taliban are not united, wrote Kelly Alkhouli. "(Abdul Ghani) Baradar represents the more pragmatic political faction that has attempted to present a more palatable image of the Taliban to the world by pledging to form a transitional inclusive government and promising amnesty and women's rights under Sharia in a bid to gain recognition and legitimacy. However, the fighters on the ground have prevented the evacuees from reaching Kabul airport, kidnapped women to use as sex slaves and have rounded up opponents to be executed." "Amid inputs that the Taliban was supplying a huge quantity of American weapons captured by it from the Afghan Army to Pakistan, top military officers in India feel that these weapons would be first used for violence in Pakistan itself by the ISI bred terrorist groups before they are able to make their way to India," ET. So many different opinions but one underlying consensus. Pakistan has incubated and released a variety of poisonous snakes. Let Pakistan charm them.     

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