Monday, April 12, 2021

All it needed was humility and dedication.

Stock markets boomed in 2020 but could fall in 2021, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "The consensus forecasts put 2021 GDP growth at just over 5% worldwide, and near 6% in the United States. I think growth could top 6% worldwide and approach 8% in theUnited States, an astonishing pace for a developed country." "Savers will become spenders again. Resurgent demand for leisure travel and other services will strain the capacity of industries gutted by the pandemic." "The bond market is beginning to price in higher inflation..." "Rising inflation expectations helped ignite a first-quarter sell-off in Treasuries that pushed yields to pre-pandemic heights," reported Reuters. "US Treasury auctions offering $271 billion of new debt and a key inflation report this week could end a recent lull in the bond market, reigniting a rise in yields that worried investors in the first quarter," Reuters. India is already grappling with high inflation despite poor growth, with the consumer price index rising by 5.52% in March compared to 5.03% in February, reported Business Standard. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, grew by 5.72% in March compared to 5.59% in February. Last week, "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a Rs 1 lakh crore (Rs 1 trillion) bond-buying plan to keep a lid on long-term interest rates amid a massive government borrowing programme, even as it held policy rates steady and retained an accommodative stance to underpin the fragile economic recovery," reported Hindustan Times. New infections with the coronavirus have jumped in recent days, with 1,61,736 new cases yesterday, slightly less than the day before. "The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) suffered its sharpest week-on-week fall in the week ending April 4, dropping to 90.7 from last week's value of 94.6," wrote Roshan Kishore. Growth has been weakening from before the latest explosion in the number of cases. Most experts revised their forecasts upwards for the Indian economy in 2021-22. The IMF increased its forecast from 11.5% to 12.5%. "However, most high frequency indicators have been showing that the sequential economic recovery has been losing momentum." "According to Crisil, by the end of 2020-21, GDP will only be approximately 2% higher than March 2020 level. More importantly, the absolute GDP would be 10% below its pre-pandemic trend level," wrote Udit Misra. The second wave will increase inequality as migrant workers flee back to their villages, terrified by their experience last year. "This threatens to reverse the gains from around Diwali last year when workers who had left in the first exodus had started to return to the states where they had worked." "Just a few short weeks ago, government officials were patting themselves on the back," wrote Mihir Sharma. They were boasting how India would become the pharmacy of the world and the RBI predicted that "soon the winter of our discontent will be made glorious summer". "Such boasts sound foolish at best today." Because of the arrogance, nationalism and bullying by the government. "This kind of regulatory uncertainty, bullying, lack of foresight and urgency, and contempt for legitimate profit- making is familiar to every entrepreneur in India. Such attitudes are at the root of the country's growth of the country's growth and investment crisis. Now the rest of the world will have to suffer the consequences." No wonder, Chief of Serum Institute of India Adar Poonawalla has rented a property in central London for around 50,000 pounds (Rs 5 million) per week, reported Business Today. They will want to blame someone for their failure. In addition to citizens.    

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