"At the end of one year since the onset of Covid-19 crisis, India can take pride in its accomplishments in at least four areas," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. "First, at 11.9 per 100,000 individuals, death rate due to Covid-19 stands at the lowest in India among the 20 most affected countries." This has been attributed to a predominantly younger population, with 65% of the population below the age of 35 years, maybe a less virulent strain of the virus and possibly exposure to other infections since childhood. A study by "Renuka Sane, an associate professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) and veteran economist Ajay Shah used the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE)'s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, which talks to over 200,000 households three times a year, seeking details about the whereabouts of each family member. The survey does not ask the cause of death. Using this data, Sane and Shah found a substantial increase in mortality in 2020. Their estimates show that deaths from all causes almost doubled between May and August compared with the same period for past years." "Coronavirus deaths in India are low no matter which parameter is assessed,"wrote Dr Tushar Gore. However, serosurveys showed that "21% of the population was affected by Covid by December end", which "equals to 280 million infected people" but "By December 31, the total number of cases identified were 10.3 million" which means that "in India, for every detected case 26 were missed". "Second, india has done better than its peers in handling the economy." Europe and the US governments spent trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus but this only increased savings. The Economist estimates that "absent the pandemic, households in these countries would have saved $3 trillion during the first nine months of the pandemic. In reality they saved $6 trillion." Household savings in India went up to 21% in the April-June quarter of 2020 but came down to 10.4% of GDP in the next quarter probably because of the festival season in September- November. "Household debt to GDP ratio rose sharply to 37.1% in Q2FY21 from 35.4% in Q1FY21." Indians are much poorer than Europeans and Americans. "The latest issue of 'The Fiscal Monitor' published by the IMF shows additional public expenditure by the central government up to December 31 in response to Covid-19 amounting to 3.1% of GDP. The counterpart figure for the US is 16.7%. Of this, the spending on health was a mere 0.2% for India and 2.3% for the US," wrote Prof Pulapre Balakrishnan. What is responsible spending by the Indian government for one professor, is fear of rating agencies and a lack of caring for the other. Thirdly, the government has reformed farm and labor laws and is committed to large scale privatisation. The farm reform act resulted in the arbitrary arrest of Disha Ravi and the ridiculous filing of FIRs against teenage activist Greta Thunberg and singer Rihanna. Bank workers are already striking work against privatisation of public sector banks. Labor unions could join in anytime. "The only difference between a fiscal deficit and selling public assets lies in the nature of the government paper that is handed to the private sector, but the macroeconomic consequences of a fiscal deficit on the economy are no different from those of selling public assets," wrote former Prof Prabhat Patnaik. Professors seem to have diametrically opposite views. Perhaps depending on whether they are for or against the government. Just like the rest of us.
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