Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Is the Reserve Bank supposed to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich?

"Reserve Bank (RBI) on Wednesday said it expects retail inflation at 5.2 percent in the first half of the current fiscal and revised downwards the target to 5 percent for the quarter ended March," reported Economic Times. The RBI "has kept the key repo rate unchanged at 4 percent to support growth in the current situation". The RBI is deliberately targeting a negative real interest rate which hurts savers and helps borrowers. Which means transferring wealth from ordinary citizens to the government, which is the biggest borrower, and to the rich, who can increase assets by borrowing. "Since March as the government announced lockdown, India's top hundred billionaires saw their fortunes increase by Rs 12.97 trillion," reported Business Standard. Crony capitalism at its most productive. The RBI "retained the GDP growth rate of 10.5 percent for the fiscal year 2022 and said global growth is gradually recovering from slowdown but remains uncertain," reported Moneycontrol. "The RBI said the projection of real GDP growth for 2021-22 consists of consists of 26.2 percent in Q1 (April-June), 8.3 percent in Q2, 5.4 percent in Q3 and 6.2 percent in Q4." Real GDP growth is measured by discounting inflation from nominal GDP. Does this mean that the RBI is forecasting nominal GDP growth of 26.2+5 for retail inflation = 31.2% for Q1, 13.3% for Q2, 10.4% for Q3 and 11.2% for Q4? "In good for the Indian economy which was massively hit by the Covid-19 pandemic last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that India's GDP growth rate would be at 12.5% in 2021," reported India.com. Is the IMF predicting real or nominal GDP and for financial or calendar year? "Despite the stronger projection, the IMF has predicted that India's GDP will contract by 8%." Wonderful. "In developed economies, central banks seem willing to tolerate higher inflation, but this playbook should not be applied to India," wrote Sonal Verma. "In the former, inflation has undershot the target and inflation expectations are well anchored, whereas in India, inflation has overshot the midpoint target of 4% despite weak growth and inflation expectations are elevated." "Ultimately, we believe monetary policy needs to be forward looking and neither premature nor late in withdrawing accommodation." In India, food and beverages provide over 45% to the consumer price index (CPI) basket, which makes CPI dependent on volatile vegetable prices which are weather dependent. Economist and ardent supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi SS Bhalla wrote that inflation targeting had no effect on inflation, which came down on its own, but it did cut growth rate of the Indian economy. A view supported by Prof VA Nageswaran wrote that "given the lopsided weight for food and related components in the Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI), the index was prone to overstating inflation when food prices were elevated, resulting in a more restrictive monetary policy". According to the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey of 2017-18, expenditure on food and beverages was around 33% for rural households and less than 30% for urban households. Just change the CPI basket to represent the real spending patterns of Indian households, instead of using it as an excuse to run an exploitative monetary policy? "The good news is that RBI is blessed with a leadership that interpreted the framework so flexibly in 2020 as to handle the risks of instability competently in the course of the year." Blessing for the rich, curse for the rest.          

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