Tuesday, April 06, 2021

Why is the US behaving like India?

"US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday urged the adoption of a minimum global corporate income tax, an effort to at least partially offset any disadvantages that might arise from the Biden administration's proposed increase in the US corporate tax rate," reported AP. "President Joe Biden has proposed hiking the US corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, partially undoing the Trump administration's cut from 35% in its 2017 tax legislation. Biden also wants to set a minimum US tax on overseas corporate income, and to make it harder for companies to shift earnings offshore. The increase would help pay for White House's ambitious $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal." The old tax and spend policies of Democrats. Yellen could be complaining about Ireland which has a corporate tax rate of 12.5% and just "6.25% for revenue tied to a company's patent or intellectual property". Yellen's speech will be music to the Indian government which lowered the corporate tax rate from 30% to 22% in 2019 for those that do not seek any exemptions, and to 25% for those that do, reported BBC. However, nothing is as it seems in India. A surcharge of 10% and cess for education and health add another 1-5% on the basic tax. Basic tax for foreign companies is at 40%. India has applied an 'equalisation levy' on e-commerce companies not based in India, which are mainly American companies. In retaliation, the US proposes to levy 25% tax on a range of Indian exports so that it earns the same amount of tax in absolute terms as India earns from its 2% levy. Yellen may also be worried about a fall in fertility. "Early in the pandemic, there were jokes about quarantine prompting a baby boom, but roughly nine months since COVID-19 triggered a national emergency in the US, experts are reporting a baby bust," reported USA Today. "Nationwide, a Thursday Brookings Institute report projects around 300,000 fewer births next year." "China has been among the worst-hit with authorities receiving 15% fewer registrations for babies," wrote Rounak Bagchi. "According to the figures released by China's Ministry of Civil Affairs, only 8.1 million couples registered for marriages in 2020, a 12% drop from the previous year." "With governments having racked up enormous borrowings to fund economic aid, the decline in new births will eventually lead to a smaller workforce, which portends lower economic activity and fewer workers to contribute to the tax base. It also means a lower ratio of workers to retirees." An ageing population with fewer working adults paying tax will be disastrous. "Just about every year for a decade, the world has been seized by bouts of despondency over slumping economic growth," wrote Ruchir Sharma before the pandemic. Since 2008, "the world economy has struggled to grow against the headwinds posed by Four Ds: deglobalisation of trade, depopulation as labor forces shrink, declining productivity, and a debt burden as high now as it was on the brink of the (subprime) crisis." "India has one of the youngest populations in an ageing world,"wrote Prasanna Balachander. "Around 90% of its population is under the age of 60, of which ~35% is under 19 years old." "To turn India into a factory to the world, (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi has put together a five-year infrastructure project pipeline worth 111 trillion rupees ($1.5 trillion), more than what the country has invested in almost previous two decades," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Where Modi is going wrong -- and repeating Nehru's mistake -- is in choosing self-sufficiency over openness." Biden and Modi could be brothers.    

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