Saturday, April 17, 2021

Pulses worth buttering for.

"The road to meaningful monetary policy outcomes in India is occasionally paved with geopolitical decisions, with the circle of influence sometimes including improbable candidates like Myanmar," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. In a coup, the Myanmar military seized control of government on 1 February after Aung San Suu Kyi's National Democratic Party (NLD) won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, BBC. "Ms Suu Kyi has been held at an unknown location since the coup. She is facing various charges, including violating the country's official secrets act, possessing illegal walkie-talkies and publishing information that may 'cause fear of alarm'." If there are over 68 million mobile phone connections in Myanmar, why owning an old-fashioned walkie-talkie is considered a crime is a mystery. However, we need a licence to own a walkie-talkie in India so we are similar to Myanmar. Listening in to police band is illegal in India and in many other countries, but not generally in the US. The EU and the US have imposed sanctions on the Myanmar military because of the coup but India officially attended a parade on 27 March at Naypitaw to celebrate Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) Day. Buttering Myanmar in important because, "It happens to be India's second largest supplier of pulses, after Canada. Myanmar supplies almost 24% of India's total pulse imports, with Canada providing 34%." Pulses are a major source of proteins, especially for the poor, and "Inflation in pulses was in double digits throughout the past 12 months". The wholesale price inflation (WPI) rose to an 8-year high of 7.39% in March from 4.17% in February, Times of India (TOI). Inflation in pulses was 13.14%. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.52% in March, but if wholesale prices are rising so fast we can expect CPI to catch up once taxes, profits and transport costs are added, The Indian Express. Not enough to ship pulses from abroad. They have to be transported across India and this needs fuel. "The Union government's net indirect tax revenues jumped 12.3% in 2020-21 to Rs 10.71 lakh crore (Rs 10.71 trillion) despite the economic contraction in the first half of the fiscal year," moneycontrol. com. The government will not reveal the contribution of exorbitant taxes on fuel to its total indirect tax collection, "but it might be 85-90% of the collections, with the share of diesel at 65-70%. Fuel price rises have been on hold because of ongoing elections to assemblies in major states but we can expect sharp increases as soon as elections are over, Financial Express. India's "Gross domestic product (GDP) growth has declined continuously from 8.2% in 2016-17 to 4.2% in 2019-20, even before the sharp fall of 7.7% in 2020-21," wrote Prof Alok Sheel. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a growth rate of 12.5% for India's GDP in 2021 and of 6.9% in 2022, TOI. "The rebound is a statistical illusion, the base effect of a steep fall of -8% (-7.7% as estimated by India's Central Statistical Office) in 2020-21. India's average growth across the three years from 2020 to 2022 would remain under 4%, compared to 4.2% in 2019. "The output loss  relative to the pre-covid growth projection is one of the largest among major economies." "Between the wholesale price (WPI) and the retail price (CPI), the difference essentially is the former tracks basic prices devoid of transportation costs, taxes and the retail margin etc. And that WPI pertains to only goods, not services," The Indian Express.  CPI will surely follow. Keep buttering Myanmar for pulses. After all, 'dal makhani' (pulses with butter) is a favorite dish in Delhi.    

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