Monday, February 08, 2021

Too many people, too little land, no money.

"The story of China's ghost towns is pretty well known," wrote Vivek Kaul. "Building of real estate leads to a lot of economic activity, Every apartment requires cement, bricks, sand, steel, pipes etc. It also requires people to take home loans." India has unoccupied housing estimated at 10 million in 2015. A lot of units are unsold because builders are unable to reduce cost. Only 42,800 homes priced at less than Rs 10 million were sold in Mumbai in the last one year. "Imagine the potential if homes could be sold in Indian cities in the range of Rs 500,000-2 million." That is not possible because the price of land is very high in India and even in smaller cities range from Rs 2,000 to 3,000 per sq foot. The Delhi Development Authority (DDA), a public sector organization, builds and sells apartments in Delhi. Its recent offering of flats for Middle Income Group (MIG) are 1,200-1,300 sq feet at a cost of Rs 12 million while the High Income Group (HIG) flats are 1,500-1,700 sq feet and cost Rs 20 million. Those for the Lower Income Group (LIG) are built on plinth area of 33-48 sq meters (355-515 sq feet) and cost between Rs 1.8-2.5 million. Actual size of flats will be smaller than plinth area. The average size of families in India was 4.3 in 2016. Poorer families will tend to cram more members into a flat to save on paying rent. "It was smaller than even the store room I have in my rented flat in Rohini. Since it was impossible to fit my bed or any of my furniture in that pigeonhole, I decided to return the flat to DDA," said a disappointed buyer. The smallest apartments in the US are over 700 sq feet in area. "More than 50% people in India live in their own houses, while almost 30% live on rent and 13% in the parents' house, revealed the latest RICS-Knight Frank report. "India's per capita average income in 2019-20 was Rs 1,26,968, according to provisional estimates published on January 7," reported the Hindustan Times. According to the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI), " The bottom 20% of households earn just Rs 25,825 per year per capita." With that kind of income they will be lucky to buy enough food to survive, let alone an apartment. "A new study tracking around 2,800 informal workers during the pandemic found more than two thirds of those employed in February 2020 had lost work during the lockdown and six months later nearly 20% remained unemployed -- indicating that while jobs were regained, employment is below pre-Covid levels." A survey in Mumbai found "47 percent respondents said they had to dip into their savings to pay for household expenses, 66 percent said they had difficulty affording house rent". About 10% of the Budget goes on subsidies. Can't buy houses on handouts. Even pigeonholes.         

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