Tuesday, February 09, 2021

It's all about how secure you and your money are.

India's credit rating is at the lowest investment grade. "The debate so far has largely been focused on a narrow set of rating drivers, such as India's low external debt, high growth rate, fiscal deficit and some irrelevant factors like the size of India's economy," wrote Deep Mukherjee. A sudden downgrade is unlikely. "While a sovereign rating has limitations, it is informative for investors in the country." "A study suggests that when an IG (investment grade) sovereign gets downgraded to junk, the yields of its foreign currency treasury bills tend to rise significantly. The study estimates a 138 basis points spike." In the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business (EoDB) rankings, "In 2014, India was ranked 142nd. It jumped to the 63rd position among 190 countries in May 2019." However, according to McKinsey, "Indian companies still face obstacles ranging from delayed payments for public procurement to tedious and slow processes for obtaining permits". India's external debt was $558.5 billion at the end of March 2020 which is well within our foreign currency reserve at $590.185 billion on 22 January. "The government on Monday pegged the fiscal deficit for the year 2020-21 at 9.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)." It is predicted to be 6.8% in the next financial year, 2020-21. "The taboo on fiscal deficit has been broken too with the government abandoning the old 3% fiscal target of the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act), opting for much higher deficits all the way to 2025," exulted SA Aiyar. "The budget replaces fudging with honesty by coming clean on subsidies." Not fully, it seems. "The budget has pegged fiscal deficit at 9.5 percent for FY21 (fiscal year) and 6.8 percent for FY22 excluding the off-budget borrowings of Rs 1.3 lakh crore (Rs 1.3 trillion) and Rs 30,000 crore (Rs 300 billion), respectively. But if we included these numbers, the deficit numbers would rise by 70 basis points to 10.2 percent for FY21 and 6.9 percent of GDP for FY22," according to a SBI Research report. Old habits. And there is nothing to stop off-budget borrowings which are forced borrowings of public sector units not shown as government expenditure. "Nomura India is all praise for the Union Budget 2021. But economists at the foreign brokerage believe rating agencies could perceive it negatively, and that there is a chance of a rating downgrade by Fitch." Then there is the sovereign disregard for contracts and the itch to extract as much tax as possible, even by changing laws retrospectively. Cairn Energy won an arbitration award against the government of India at The Hague after Vodafone has repeatedly done so. "A three-member tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague cited statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other ministers pledging not to use retrospective taxation to overturn a Rs 10,247 crore tax demand on British oil and gas company Cairn Energy PLC." "India's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index - 2020 slipped from 80 to 86 even as its score decreased only by one point to 40 from 41 in 2019." Also, "India slipped two places to 53rd position in the 2020 Democracy Index's global ranking, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit..." Who would want to invest in a country which can grab your money through unreasonable taxes and has not respect for rules? That is credit rating.       

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