Friday, February 12, 2021

Growth is not a hot air balloon.

 "The 15th Finance Commission, in its recent report, has estimated that public debt will be 85.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025-26, even after the government begins to chip away at its fiscal deficit," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. According to advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Stephanie Kelton, "Any country that issues its own fiat currency, is in effect released from the usual concerns about how to fund a budget deficit." Meaning, the nation can just print more money to pay for the deficit in its revenue. "Monetisation of deficit was in practice in India till 1997, whereby the central bank automatically monetised government deficit through the issuance of ad hoc treasury bills," wrote Deepthi Mary Mathew. Oversupply of rupees caused its value to fall and a rise in inflation. To stop this practice the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act was passed in 2003. Our government does not borrow only in rupees but also has to borrow in foreign currency to finance our current account deficit because we spend more on imports than we earn through exports. "India's fiscal deficit -- the gap between its revenue and expenditure -- for the current financial year is set to rise to 9.5%, the highest since the country opened its markets to the world in 1991," wrote Nikhil Inamdar. "The composition of spending is skewed more towards higher capital expenditure (capex) than revenue expenditure," wrote Sonal Verma. "According to a past study by the RBI (Reserve Bank), the short-term (one-year) multiplier of capex (general government) is around 0.47, while the longer-term multiplier is 2.41." The Economic Survey 2020-21 said that if the the growth rate is higher than the fiscal deficit, debt as a percentage of the GDP will tend to fall. The very low interest rate will help to keep interest payments at reasonable levels. Interest payment on government debt will be Rs 8.40 trillion in 2021-22, while spending on grants-in-aid to states will be Rs 5.57 trillion, on agriculture and allied services will be Rs 3.82 trillion, on transport will be Rs 2.29 trillion, on defence will be Rs 2.21 trillion, on social services will be Rs 1.96 trillion and on rural development will be Rs 760 billion, wrote Pradeep S Mehta. "In the coming fiscal year, the government intends to raise Rs 36.04 trillion through 14-day treasury bills and has estimated Rs 21.06 trillion as revenue receipts, of which Rs 10.96 trillion is projected to come from tax revenue. The government intends to raise around Rs 12.06 trillion through market loans in 2021-22." "The only way India can pull itself out of this jam is if private investment pours into the country, financing projects that push up the country's growth rate," wrote Mihir Sharma. Unfortunately, "India isn't so attractive that it can expect vast sums of investment to arrive even if the macro-economic numbers look bad and the sovereign rating is junk." On 1 February, "finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman told us in her budget speech that 2020-21 will end with government expenditure growing by a much larger 28.4%", wrote CEO for the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Mahesh Vyas. "The growth is likely to be 17%, if we compare apples to apples, and if we are lucky." According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), only India and Indonesia get a C rating out of all G20 nations for their management of the coronavirus-induced economic crisis. Got to put your money where your mouth is. No time for hot air.    

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