"'Never was a creature born in this world, whom power did not intoxicate,' said Tulsidas," translated Pavan K Varma. Many politicians, when aspirants to power, genuinely believe that they will be invincible to its distorting temptations or misuse." First comes arrogance. "As political primacy consolidates, the incumbent begins to believe that he or she can do no wrong." "On a day when petrol crossed the Rs 100 mark, Prime Minister Narendra Modi blamed the previous governments for not focussing on reducing India's energy import dependence." "By way of an example, just before Modi came to power, petrol was selling at a bit above Rs 75 while crude prices were as high as $110 a barrel; but now local prices are in the high 80s or 90s despite crude prices hovering just above $60." Taxes account for nearly two-thirds of the price of petrol. "Data shows the central government is collecting more tax on petrol compared to state governments." Second, "The supreme leader places himself above all questioning," and "Courtiers are quick to realise that their personal gain lies in what pleases the leader than what they think is right." Thus, Union petroleum and natural gas and steel minister Dharmendra Pradhan blamed oil producing nations for the price of petrol. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) passed a resolution lauding Modi for passing farm laws, for his handling of the coronavirus epidemic and for standing up to China during the confrontation at the border. Actually our soldiers sacrificed their lives and gave a bloody nose to the Chinese. China retaliated by causing a power outage in Mumbai. The resolution makes no mention of that. As the sycophants sing his praises, the supreme leader becomes increasingly intolerant of any dissent and protesters are branded as "anti-nationals, traitors, foreign agents, seditionists and unpatriotic". Thus Modi labeled protesting farmers as "andolan-jivi", meaning 'those who survive on protests'. Disha Ravi was virtually kidnapped from her home in Bengaluru by Delhi Police and brought to Delhi without giving her a chance to see a lawyer. BJP politician called for "complete eradication of people who have anti-national thoughts". "India's democracy is backsliding, not because of the generals and soldiers, but because elected politicians are subverting democracy," wrote Prof Ashutosh Varshney. "A democracy which speaks with one voice, which elevates citizen duties over citizen rights, which privileges obedience over freedom, which uses fear over ideological uniformity, which weakens checks on executive power, is a contradiction in terms." "India is no longer a democracy," wrote Prof Kanti Bajpai. "It is pitiless, humorless, and clueless lashing out periodically to give us the impression of control and purpose." Disha Ravi was granted bail by Additional Sessions Judge Dharmender Rana who said "citizens are conscience keepers of government in any democratic Nation" and the "offence of sedition cannot be invoked to minister to the wounded vanity of the governments". "The last consequence is a determination to somehow cling to power." wrote Varma. That is because, as atrocities mount, the supreme leader is terrified of giving up power because he maybe made to pay for his actions. Xi Jinping has made himself President of China for life so that he remains in control of the police. Muammar Gaddafi met a very brutal end. We cannot complain. Because, we are jackasses.
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Saturday, February 27, 2021
Hope he doesn't end up canceling peace.
The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is underway in Orlando, Florida. The slogan for this year seems to be "America Uncancelled", which maybe a reference to President Joe Biden reversing every one of his predecessor's policies in a frenzy of Executive Orders. However, Democrats in the House have passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill which gives "direct aid to small businesses, $1,400 direct checks to Americans making less than $75,000 annually, an increase in the child tax credit, direct funding to state and local governments, funding for schools and more money for vaccine distribution", reported CNN. President Donald Trump had demanded that the assistance should be $2,000 but Republicans blocked it in Congress. Biden has taken steps to revive the Iran nuclear deal and has lifted travel restrictions on Iranian officials wanting to travel to the US. The nuclear deal with Iran was negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015 in partnership with the UK, France, China, Russia and Germany. The deal was seen as favorable to Iran and was passed by Congress apparently without knowledge of all the details. Obama was so friendly to Iran that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent a personal letter to him to release $2 billion frozen by the US Supreme Court. John Kerry was Secretary of State for Obama from 2013 to 2017. "Biden officials, including John Kerry and Robert Malley, had meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during the Trump administration that were orchestrated to undermine President Biden's predecessor, a recent report from the Washington Times claims." And, we Indians think that we have been betrayed by traitors. In a sudden burst of virility Biden authorized air strikes against two Iran-backed militia groups in Syria. Curiously, Democrats have criticized the attack, possibly because people still have not forgotten their fierce attacks by Democrats on Trump for bombing Syria after a suspected use of chemical weapon. Also, "The Biden administration has released the intelligence report on the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi that concludes that 'Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey, to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi'." Biden did not sanction the Crown Prince but has sanctioned senior Saudi officers. For the first time ever 4 Arab nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco have normalized diplomatic relations with Israel due to the efforts of Donald Trump. In November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled secretly to Saudi Arabia to meet with the Crown Prince, something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. An Israeli owned cargo vessel Helios Ray suffered an explosion off the coast of Oman yesterday, which Israeli sources blame on Iran. In his haste to cancel everyone of Trump's policies Biden might end up canceling peace in the Middle East. As it is we are paying record high prices for petrol and diesel. A war in the Middle East will bring India to a standstill. Perhaps Cancel Biden should take a cold shower.
Friday, February 26, 2021
Lack of energy is good for the environment.
"The Indian economy has exited recession after two consecutive quarters of de-growth as the gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.4 percent in the three months ended December 2020 as against a contraction of 7.3 percent in the September quarter. India is among the few major economies to post growth in the last quarter of 2020," reported ndtv.com. "India's Mukesh Ambani is back to being the wealthiest person in Asia," reported the Business Standard. "With a net worth of about $80 billion, Ambani is again richer than Zhong Shanshan, whose bottled water company tanked a record 20 percent this week." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi will receive the CERAWeek global energy and environment leadership award next week in recognition of his commitment to sustainability in the energy and the environment." Makes you proud to be Indian, doesn't it? It must be good for the environment if Indians cannot afford energy at stratospheric prices because of extortionate taxes. "With a 48-hour work week, India ranks fifth among all countries for which ILO (International Labor Organisation) estimates actual mean working hours," wrote Rukmini S. "Despite the long hours, Indian workers are not making enough money. India had the lowest statutory minimum wage for any country in the Asia-Pacific region, except Bangladesh as in 2019." Some, especially the self-employed, work every day of the week. "While our work pressure is heavy, we also have high joblessness. Clearly, our economy has too few doing too much," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Worse "is our rapidly falling rate of female participation in the overall labor force. The World Bank places it at 20.3% last year, down from healthier figures in past decades." In 2019, it was 23.41, below that of Libya, Sudan and Pakistan, and well below that of Bangladesh. "So far, our V-shaped revival of gross domestic product has not translated into a recovery of lost jobs. India's unemployment rate rose to 9% in December, by data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), with around 9 million losing their jobs between September and that month," wrote Lalit Bhasin. "India has a LFPR (labor force participation rate) of just about 40%. In other words, just 40% of the 20 million joining the working-age group each year come forward looking for a job. Among women, this participation ratio is even lower," wrote Udit Misra. "Formal worker's wages were cut by 3.6% but informal workers witnessed a much sharper fall of 23% due to the pandemic, observed the ILO's Global Wage report 2020-21," wrote Sayantan Bera. "Rising fuel expenses are having a cascading effect on manufacturing costs across sectors, which is resulting in higher prices for the end consumer," reported Economic Times. Rejoicing V-shaped GDP growth dose not show that "Several surveys after the lockdown have confirmed an increase in hunger and decline in food intake," wrote Prof Himanshu. If you cannot afford food you are hardly likely to buy petrol. Blessed are the poor.
Thursday, February 25, 2021
Suppressing news is the same as fake news.
The Indian government should make Google and Facebook pay for news, wrote Saubhik Chakrabarti. Australia has already passed such a law after Facebook agreed to lift a ban on users sharing news content on its platform. India, "A large democracy with growing internet market power run by a government that champions local enterprise and can get tough on global players is just about the perfect candidate to be a key player in this fight." Most newspapers have installed paywalls to restrict access to news content. Some people may subscribe to one or two online newspapers but it is impossible to subscribe to all. In India, Livemint, which is the online version of Mint newspaper, has imposed a paywall which is extremely unfair for those of us who buy the Mint in physical form since the content is the same. "Around 80% of external traffic to news websites is carried by Google and Facebook," so they earn 70-80% of advertising revenue. But, newspapers, which are erecting paywalls, are also using Google, probably for free. Google and Facebook are blocked in China by its Great Firewall. The Indian government wants foreign companies to place their servers in India so that it can place every citizen under surveillance but it cannot ensure a constant supply of electricity for them. In 2019, "Google used about 12.4 terawatt-hours of electricity, which means it uses more electric power than entire countries, including ones like Sri Lanka and Zambia," reported Forbes. "Furthermore, Google's electricity use is doubling every three years or so." "Credible, fact-checked news is a bedrock of democracy." Indeed. But, what if they leave out news for fear of the government or because of their bias? US news channel CNN is blatantly anti Republican and continues to cover up for New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's responsibility in nursing home deaths. "More than 15,000 New Yorkers in care homes have died since the start of the pandemic. But - until last month - the state's health department had logged just over 8,500 fatalities," reported BBC. Why the cover up? To manipulate the presidential election by blaming Trump. In India, Republic TV is completely biased in favor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. When Chief Editor of Republic TV Arnab Goswami was arrested for being responsible for the suicide of Anvay Naik, senior ministers rushed out to condemn this as an attack on the freedom of the press, wrote Tavleen Singh. "They know better than anyone else that Modi has done more to curb press freedom than any prime minister since Indira Gandhi." Besides, Google and Facebook are free but we are forced to provide fingerprints and iris scans to pay income tax, used by the government for surveillance on us. There is nothing that Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook or Sundar Pichai, CEO or Alphabet, which controls Google, can do to us, but the government has the sole monopoly on violence. Which it uses with extreme malice. We need privacy from surveillance. Not from gossip.
Wednesday, February 24, 2021
Internally or externally, we would love to migrate.
"Last summer, hundreds of thousands made an arduous journey back to their homes in this district on the India-Nepal border after India announced a stringent lockdown to control the spread of covid-19," wrote Sayantan Bera. The sudden loss of jobs left migrant workers with no income and many died as they walked back to their villages with their children. "According to the Economic Survey 2016-17, the internal remittances contributed more than Rs 1.5 trillion to household incomes in rural India." "Over 79% of workers in India are employed in the informal sector but if one adds up those working without any contract in the formal sector, the number zooms past 90%." Returning back to their villages did not improve their financial condition. "For instance, in northern Bihar where maize is the dominant cash crop, farmers sold their harvest between Rs 900-1200 per quintal last year, a price drop of over 50% compared to 2019 levels, and significantly lower than the state-determined fair price of Rs 1,850 per quintal." Many sold land to start small businesses to augment earning. After September 2020, "real wages of general agricultural labour were down 0.3% from a year earlier, while those of non-agricultural workers were down 1.3%," wrote Prof Himanshu. "When compared to levels two years ago, too, the real wages of general agricultural labourers and non-agricultural labourers declined 0.2% and 0.8% per annum. The extent of distress is evident from the fact that non-agricultural real wages are lower even compared to their level five years ago." Despite the government claiming that special trains (Shramik trains) were free for migrants, "most reports suggest that the ticket fares are higher than usual, as the Railways has imposed an additional Rs 50 on normal sleeper class fares", reported The Wire. States subsidised fares of their people, the Center spent nothing. Even before the pandemic, "As per the World Inequality Database, the share of the top 10% in India's national income was about 56%, much higher than comparable countries like Indonesia (41%), Vietnam (42%), and even China (41%)," wrote Lahoti, Jha and Basole. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), "An average Indian household lost about Rs 25,000 in income (equivalent to slightly more than a month's earnings) in the first six months of the pandemic, as compared to the previous year." "In absolute terms, households in the bottom decile lost Rs 17,585, on average. This is equivalent to losing three months of income for an average bottom 10% household." "Malnutrition in children has risen across India in recent years, sharply reversing hard-won gains, according to the latest government survey," reported BBC. "India's latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS), which shows that children in several states are more undernourished now than they were five years ago, is based on data collected in 2019-20." Which means well before the pandemic. "A new study tracking around 2,800 informal workers during the pandemic found more than two thirds of those employed in February 2020 had lost work during the lockdown and six months later nearly 20% remained unemployed -- indicating that while jobs were regained, employment is below pre-covid levels," reported the Times of India. "For Indians, the road into the United States of America has become clearer," rejoiced the Economic Times. Escape those who can. The rest of us trapped.
Tuesday, February 23, 2021
Are young Indians stupid grandstanding do-gooders?
"A Delhi court on Tuesday granted bail to climate activist Disha Ravi, saying that a call for violence for in the toolkit for the farmers' agitation was 'conspicuously absent'. In a significant observation, it added that citizens were conscience keepers of the government in any democratic nation and cannot be put behind bars simply because they choose to disagree with the state's policies." Ravi was accused of sedition for corresponding "online with foreign citizens and/or Indians abroad". Our revered Prime Minister likes to meet foreigners very cordially and even visited arch enemy Pakistan to take part in Nawaz Sharif's birthday. In a mocking article, Manu Joseph wrote, "It is just that I feel the best way that the young, especially those of privilege, can serve their nation better is by encashing their luck in the for-profit material world, rather than choosing the easy option of festive grandstanding and do-gooding, which is often harmful, at best useless or an inefficient way to make the world a better place." So cynical and arrogant. Young people are citizens and have every right to decide what kind of country they want to inherit from the selfish, corrupt old. "Her cause is undoubtedly good, but does she really understand the ground issues," asked Sandipan Deb. "For instance, all studies have shown that with free water and power in Punjab, its water table is being dangerously depleted;" and "Every year, at the onset of winter, farmers burn vast quantities of crop stubble in north India, creating a toxic haze that smothers the National Capital region". Young people are fools and old people know everything. It was politicians who started to supply free electricity to farmers to win elections. Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh has said that electricity will remain free. Farmers burn stubble because "our current system of subsidies is a big reason that there is stubble on these fields in the first place," wrote Jessica Seddon and Prof Ashok Gulati, and "The Indo-Gangetic plain is one of the world's largest and rapidly-growing ammonia hotspots." Because of subsidised urea fertiliser. Punjab farmers are protesting because they suspect the government of trying to get rid of minimum support price (MSP) for wheat and rice which guarantees a higher-than-market price. "In 2019, China spent an estimated $185.9 billion on farm subsidies, followed by the European Union ($101.3 billion), the United States ($48.9 billion) and India ($11 billion)," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. If agriculture is privatised what is to stop private companies from importing cheap subsidised wheat and rice from Europe or the US? Just like there is an oil import lobby. Bihar got rid of MSP in 2006 and now, "low harvest prices have caused agriculture wages in Bihar to remain suppressed as compared to Punjab and Haryana and resulted in labour migration from the state," wrote Atul Thakur. Which means, Bihar farmers have been so impoverished that they are working as coolies for farmers in Punjab. "Much in the same way as India is doing now, the Kenyan government introduced these laws with the expectation that the rise of such businesses would transform smallholder agriculture for the better," wrote Prof Swati Dhingra. But 6 years on, "Farmers who were reliant on agri-businesses saw their incomes fall by an average 6%. They sold household assets to maintain their day-to-day consumption." Punjab farmers are right to mistrust government intentions and Disha Ravi is not a "privileged" "festive grandstanding and do-gooding" fool. "'At Adani, we want to be known as the big agri-infrastructure player and Adani Wilmar to be a big food company in the country,' said Atul Chaturvedi, CEO, agri-business at the Adani Group, in an interview," wrote Christophe Jaffrelot and Hemal Thakker. Adani agri-business and Ambani Reliance Fresh food stores in every town and city. Total control.
Monday, February 22, 2021
Where will we hide?
"If I had to pick a single company I would like to buy, it would probably be an Indian company," said investor Jim Rogers. "But history is pretty clear that Japan is going to have problems in the next few decades. India has a better future than Japan and America in 2021." "When the next problem comes in the markets whether it is this year or next, I am sure that people are going to race to the US dollar because they think it is a safe haven." "I do not particularly like what is happening in Delhi, these guys are spending a lot of money and borrowing a lot of money." "Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday said the government was well aware of fiscal management and would keep finances in healthy condition and not leave them unattended." "In India, because of accumulated debt, interest payments are the single biggest item of government expenditure and eat up more than 40% of total revenues, leaving that much less for spending on growth enhancing sectors like education, health and infrastructure," wrote Duvvuri Subbarao. Rich countries are suffering from secular stagnation because their populations are growing older and consuming less but the median age in India is 29 years which means economic growth leads to rising consumption and rising prices. He should know because he was Governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI) from 2008-2013 when average retail inflation soared to as high as 12.11% in 2010. Long term weak growth of economy is known as secular stagnation. Economist Larry Summers explains it as "imbalance resulting from an increasing propensity to save and a decreasing propensity to invest. The result is that excessive saving acts as a drag on demand, reducing growth and inflation, and the imbalance between savings and investment pulls down interest rates." According to data from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) the total number of employed people was "407.3 million in 2016-17 and then fell to 405.9 million in 2017-18, and to 400.9 million in 2018-19", wrote Udit Misra. Around 20 million people "enter the working age population of 15-59 years" every year. India has a labor force participation rate (LFPR) of just about 40% which means that only 40% of that 20 million is actually looking for a job. Growth will come from consumption and investment, wrote Madan Sabnavis. Consumption cannot grow without more jobs which will come from economic growth. "The second engine is investment which has lagged with gross fixed capital formation falling to a low of 24.2 percent in 2019-20 (that is before the coronavirus lockdown) from 34.3 percent in 2011-12." "Most economists expect inflation to resume an uptrend in February and March with the base effect likely to fade going ahead." Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said that "reduced fuel production and oil-rich nations seeking more profits are the primary reasons behind spiralling petrol and diesel prices in the country". Which is as barefaced as it can get because "just before Modi came to power, petrol was selling at a bit above Rs 75 while crude prices were as high as $110 a barrel; but now local prices are in the high 80s and 90s despite crude prices hovering just above $60". The reason is extortionate taxes. Bond yields have risen suddenly in India and he US indicating inflation expectations. Rising inflation, rising dollar, falling employment, a perfect storm is coming. No safe haven for Indians.
Sunday, February 21, 2021
They are very similar..
"Amid the ongoing protests against the three new agricultural laws the ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) Sunday passed a resolution lauding Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Center for bringing these resolutions, saying they are in farmers' interest and will ensure better prices for their produce." This resolution comes about two months before elections to assemblies of four large states, plus Puducherry, of which the BJP controls only Assam. In China, Xi Jinping was elected president for life by the National People's Congress in 2018. He is now the most powerful, unchallenged leader since Mao Zedong. He has increasingly consolidated power to himself, imposed obedience within the party and public, blanketed the country with intrusive surveillance system, demanded an obsequious and unquestioning media and imprisoned thousands of Muslim Uighurs. "But what's happened to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which surpassed the Communist Party of China in 2015 to become the world's largest political outfit. Last heard, party president JP Nadda was counting 18 crore (180 million) BJP members, and saying that only seven countries have more people in them," wrote DK Singh. "But none would venture out of their dens in Lutyens' Delhi and go to villages in the bordering states -- or even to Delhi's borders like Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur -- to tell agitators why the PM is right and they are wrong." "Last year India dropped two places and was ranked 142 on the 180-country World Press Freedom Index, compiled annually by Reporters Without Borders," reported BBC. After a protester died during a rally on 26 January the police "filed criminal charges -- including sedition and making statements inimical to national integration -- against eight journalists who covered the protests in Delhi". "Sixty-seven journalists arrested and nearly 200 physically attacked in 2020, according to a study by Geeta Seshu for the Free Speech Collective." Cabinet ministers know that "Modi has done more to curb press freedom than any prime minister since Indira Gandhi. Foreign correspondents who have written critical pieces on him have found restrictions imposed on their visas. Within India editors have been summarily dismissed for having the wrong attitude," wrote Tavleen Singh. "Why are today's film and cricketing superstars so unwilling to stand up to any form of executive power and instead resort to obsequious sycophancy, the latest example being the flood on near identical tweets on farm laws?" asked Rajdeep Sardasai. "In a regime paranoid about image management, the hugely popular stars are pawns in a perception war, remote-controlled by an all-powerful Big State, any defiance of which could lead to unforeseen circumstances." "It is quite unprecedented to see the government literally barricading itself and its seat of power -- Delhi," wrote Suhas Palshikar. "Assigning the idea of 'we the people' strictly to constitutional folklore, the government is sending out a chilling message to all citizens that their status as citizens is devoid of citizenship rights." "There would not be many agitations in the past when the government was alleged to have dug roads or strewn the roads with nails, besides erecting walls." Delhi Police is using the controversial facial recognition technology to arrest protesters, reported the Financial Times. Several cities and states in the US have banned the use of facial recognition by government agencies. The BJP under Modi and Amit Shah takes a tough approach to any dissent because it "believes that there is a network of academics, activists, journalists and few Opposition leaders (the Khan Market gang in its lingo) that keeps scheming to delegitimise the Modi government in the public eye". "Why is the independence and integrity of the SC (Supreme Court) being questioned in the public domain, in a way that it has not been since the Emergency?" asked Gautam Bhatia. "There are a few characteristic features that have marked judicial conduct during this period, which are of serious concern.". The BJP is apparently bigger than the Chinese Communist Party. And very similar.
Saturday, February 20, 2021
There is a lot of gold in India.
Friday, February 19, 2021
After the virus, inflation may infect India.
"European shares retreated from near one-year highs on Wednesday as concerns about a rise in inflation tempered optimism around a vaccine-led global economic recovery," reported Reuters. "British inflation edged up in January as consumers hunkered down with new sofas and duvets and spent more on food, video games and other home entertainment as they went into a third national coronavirus lockdown," said Reuters. "Annual consumer price rose to a three-month high 0.7% last month, and many economists expect it to overshoot the Bank of England's 2% target later this year as temporary tax cuts and a cap on household fuel bills expire." "Yields on 10- and 30-year British government bonds extended their recent climbs and briefly hit their highest since March 2020 after Wednesday' data." In India, the government set a consumer price (CPI) inflation target at 4% (+/- 2%) for the Reserve Bank (RBI) in 2016, giving a wide range of 2-6%. CPI inflation has stayed much higher than 4% in the last one year and came down to 4.06% only last month. Wholesale price inflation rose to 2.03% in January from 1.22% in December, led by manufactured items, official data released on Monday showed." The RBI has been reducing interest rate since 2019, to its lowest level in 20 years, despite inflation higher than its mandate. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has been working hard to keep yields on government bonds as low as possible, wrote Aparna Iyer. Just a week, after the Budget was presented on 1 February, "Versus an asking amount of Rs 31,000 crore (Rs 310 billion), the RBI got only Rs 190 crore (Rs 1.9 billion) of bids it found acceptable," wrote Latha Venkatesh. "Most traders believe 6 percent was the line in the sand for the 10-year bond, before the budget. Now that the budget has imposed a much larger than expected load on the market, RBI will have to accept a higher yield." There are other fears as well. "As the economy is gradually recovering from the recessionary phase, the fear of rising inflation is getting stronger," wrote Deepthi Mary Mathew. Though CPI was only 4.06%, "core inflation (i.e. inflation excluding food and fuel) grew 5.7% in January". Which is extraordinary because, though vegetable prices fell in January, petrol and diesel prices have been rising relentlessly. "By way of an example, just before Modi came to power, petrol was selling at a bit above Rs 75 while crude prices were as high as $110 a barrel; but now local prices are in the high 80s and 90s despite crude prices hovering just above $60," reported the Economic Times. "It is worth noting that basic price of petrol is just about Rs 31.82 a liter but more than 65 percent load of taxes has put its retail price which the customer gets at is Rs 89.54 a liter in Delhi," wrote Zee News. The goods and services (GST) collection came in at a record Rs 1.2 trillion in January, and since GST is levied as a percentage of prices, cost of goods and services must have gone up much higher than reflected in the official inflation figures. "It cannot be that internally the rupee is losing purchasing power due to domestic inflation, but externally it is gaining power, by becoming stronger as compared to the American dollar, the euro or the British pound," wrote Ajit Ranade. A strong rupee makes exports more expensive. The strong rupee is being used to keep inflation under control. Inflation is richer countries will cause them to tighten monetary policy. That will cause an outflow of foreign currencies from India and a fall in the rupee. That will be out of our hands, as in 2013. Will Modi accept responsibility?
Thursday, February 18, 2021
Can we volunteer to get eradicated?
"While laudable, India's FDI (foreign direct investment) levels still lag the high water marks of other developing economies such as China, Brazil and Russia," wrote Richard M Rossow. For the first time, India attracted $63 billion FDI in the twelve months to November 2020, $14 billion of which went to Reliance Jio alone. "One critical factor to attract major investments from the largest multinationals is to have a 'plug and play ecosystem' of their trusted global suppliers. These smaller firms are more risk averse than their larger partners," and are hesitant as "the government regularly increases customs duties and expands local production rules". Then there are Vodafone and Cairn Energy, both of which have won international arbitration cases against the Indian government's retrospective tax demands. However, the cases are completely different. The government is demanding Rs 200 billion in back taxes from Vodafone for its acquisition of Hutchison Essar for $11.1 billion in 2007. Although it has lost its case in the Indian Supreme Court as well as at international arbitration it has appealed to the Singapore tribunal. In 2006, Cairn Energy transferred ownership of its Indian oilfield to Cairn India Ltd. "At the time, no tax was demanded. Years, later, when Cairn disputed the sudden $4.3 billion levy, New Delhi expropriated its shares in Vedanta Ltd (into which Cairn had merged its Rajasthan oilfield), helped itself to the dividends and dumped the stock," wrote Andy Mukherjee. The International Tribunal at the Hague ordered the Indian government to pay $1.4 billion in compensation, including penalty and interest. The government has no intention of paying anything to Cairn because it claims its right to levy any tax it wants as a sovereign of India, reminding us of the taxes the British sovereign extracted from us. Instead, it wants Cairn and Vodafone to adopt the 'Vivaad se Vishwas' scheme, under which they will pay all the tax demanded but the government will forgive interest and penalties. Either we are missing something or this is a collective delusion of grandeur, breathtaking in its arrogance. "At risk of seizure are Indian assets such as airplanes, bank accounts and other foreign properties that could be snatched to pay for the arbitration award." Maybe, that is the plan. Let Cairn take Air India planes, quietly transferring ownership of the airline to Cairn before it realises that it has been landed with a debt of Rs 600 billion. Brilliant. The government owes Rs 5 billion to Air India for VVIP flights. Why should foreigners invest in India when 5,000 dollar millionaire citizens fled India in 2018, and high networth individuals (HNI) are looking to invest in countries which grant residency status or citizenship in exchange. Over 80% of Indians living in the US intend to apply for citizenship, wrote Badrinathan, Kapur and Vaishnav. Those born in the US of Indian parents have little connection with this country. 85,593 Indians became permanent residents of Canada in 2019 and 32 million of Indian origin are living abroad and will do anything not to have to return. For those of us stuck in India we have to prostrate ourselves to our Sovereign or risk getting eradicated. Some of us would like to volunteer.
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
We will believe, no matter what.
Tuesday, February 16, 2021
Cairn and young women, let the world laugh at us.
"Police in Uttar Pradesh's (UP) Varanasi had booked Google CEO Sundar Pichai and 17 others last week over a video that allegedly defamed Prime Minister Narendra Modi but later removed the tech giant officlals' names from the FIR (first information report), police officials said on Friday." Lucky escape for Google. Varanasi is an extremely holy city for Hindus so foreigners better watch out. Not so lucky a 22-year old woman Disha Ravi from Bengaluru who was arrested from her home and transported to the capital by Delhi Police. "She has been charged with sedition and criminal conspiracy, among other offences." The arrest was carried out surreptitiously and, "Local police were not informed until well after Disha was on a flight to Delhi." If Delhi Police has violated procedures then was this a case of kidnap of an Indian citizen? "Law doesn't differentiate between a 22-year-old and a 50-year-old," said Delhi Police Commissioner SN Shrivastava. Absolutely, but does the police have the right to break the law? "Those who have anti-national thoughts in their mind must be completely eradicated. Be it Disha Ravi or anybody else," said Haryana Home Minister Anil Vij. 'Thought Police' welcome in India in 2021, instead of in '1984'. Nodeep Kaur was arrested in Kundli in Haryana for protesting in front of her factory where she worked. "The next day when I met her in jail, she told me she was beaten inside the van and at the police station. She was slapped and punched, and hit with shoes and sticks, including on her private parts, resulting in heavy bleeding for days," said her sister Rajveer Kaur. Then there was the relentless harassment of actors, mainly young women, for apparently possessing minor quantities of ganja, which is legal in many countries, including emerging economies. Arrests were made on a kind of rolling basis. In 2018, Indian marine commandos apprehended Princess Sheikha Latifa, daughter of Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, from a yacht in international waters and returned to Dubai where she has been held against her will ever since. Her crime? She wanted to live in the West. A sort of partial honor killing by the Indian state. The BBC has apparently obtained a video in which Latifa "describes the condition she is being kept in: solitary confinement, the windows barred shut and no daylight". Back to Disha Ravi. According to the FIR she was allegedly inciting riots through her toolkit, wrote NC Asthana. A man named in the toolkit is a member of the dreaded Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan. Thank God, there is no one from Boko Haram, Al Shabab or Islamic State. The toolkit was created by a pro-Khalistani group, said Delhi Police. "There is a call for economic warfare against India against India and certain Indian companies," says the FIR. Who knew we had a dangerous Matahari type hiding in Bengaluru? "In such cases, the normal language of a chargesheet under UAPA is replaced by storytelling, innuendo, presumption, extrapolation, stretching of the narrative and downright lying," wrote Colin Gonsalves. To add to the ordure, "Cairn Energy has filed a case in a US district court to enforce a $1.2 billion arbitration award it won in a tax dispute against India, a court document showed, ratcheting up pressure on the government to pay its dues." File FIRs against Cairn, the UK, the district court, the US and whoever. Let the world laugh at us.
Monday, February 15, 2021
How long can you suppress an empty purse?
"Getting a FASTag for your vehicle may buy you peace of mind," reported Times of India. "It is a different matter that the tag is useless on city roads and most state highways, leave alone to pay your parking fees." "FASTag is a Radio Frequency Identification Technology (RFID) introduced by the government of India in October 2017 by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highway." "In order to apply for a FASTag card, you would need to submit your KYC (know your customer) documents - identity proof and residential proof." In short, this is just another weapon for surveillance added to Aadhaar and the invasive facial recognition technology on protesters. "The payment for a FASTag card in most cases is divided into three components: 1. Issuance fee, 2. Refundable security deposit and 3. Minimum balance which you need to credit to your digital wallet linked with your FASTag card." So, this is another extortion racket on car owners like the high security number plates forced on us in December. The biggest extortion is of course the usurious taxes on petrol taking its price to over Rs 90 per liter in India while it is Rs 51 per liter in Pakistan and Rs 60 in Sri Lanka. Till 2018, the government earned Rs 11 trillion from taxes on petrol. Even during the coronavirus-induced slowdown when people have lost jobs the government earned Rs 1.4 trillion from fuel taxes in this financial year. The Congress claims that the BJP government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has earned over Rs 20 trillion since 2014 when it first came to power. Then there was the "gift" of Rs 1.76 trillion from the Reserve Bank's reserve funds in September 2019, reported Forbes. No one knows how much money has been collected in the PM-Cares Fund, reported the BBC. The Supreme Court, no less, rejected any accounting of the fund collected from the public. Where has all the money gone? "The past fortnight witnessed the confluence of three important economic events: the Budget, release of the 15th Finance Commission's report, and Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) final bi-monthly policy for 2020-21. These three documents are sending rather dismal messages; the Budget document, in particular, seems imbued with signals of lower growth, with the Finance Commission and RBI further muddying the waters," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Big states, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will hold elections to their assemblies this year and Modi wants to win them all. As is usual, large expenses have been announced in these states and some spending has to start, even if they stop after the elections are over. Retail inflation was 4.1% in January because of a collapse in vegetable prices which means farmers will be badly hit. If growth actually takes off the huge cost of transport will cause prices to rocket. That is why the government has launched a ferocious uncontrolled assault on citizens for harmless dissent. But, that is for another post.
Sunday, February 14, 2021
Does the RBI have no responsibility to the people?
Saturday, February 13, 2021
There's a whole lot of tearing going on. In Delhi.
"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday launched a scathing attack against Rahul Gandhi and the Congress Party over farmers' protest and 'hum do humare do' remark in the ongoing Budget session at the parliament." In a personal attack on Gandhi's mother and sister she said, "Hum 2 hamare 2 we're two people taking care of party (meaning Sonia and Rahul Gandhi) & a there are two other people who I've to take care, daughter and damad (meaning Priyanka Gandhi and her husband Robert Vadra) will take care of that." Her vituperation was provoked by a speech by Rahul Gandhi in which he accused the Modi government of being run by 2 people (meaning Modi and Amit Shah) for the benefit of 2 people (meaning Guatam Adani and Mukesh Ambani). Gandhi used the old family planning slogan 'hum do, humare do' which means 'we are two, and we will have no more than two children'. Clearly, she is her master's voice. Because, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been blaming the Nehru-Gandhi family for all the ills of the nation and continues to do so even though he has been in charge with absolute majority in parliament since 2014. No blame attaches to him even though everyone knows he is a master of 'jumla'. He has no qualms about selecting children of politicians as candidates for elections to the Lok Sabha or state assemblies. Earlier, "Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday tore into Congress saying the party should introspect whether it is fit to demand an account from the Modi government." "Peace in Kashmir is a big thing. I don't want to recall the days of unrest. Such days won't be there again as it's our Govt now," he said. We sure hope for peace for Kashmir and its people but it was achieved through curfew, a lockdown of the state, mass arrests and complete disruption of telephone and internet connections. The coronavirus must have helped enormously. Since Jammu and Kashmir is no longer a state, local elections to District Development Councils (DDC) were held in which an alliance of 7 parties, the Gupkar alliance which has resolved to bring back Articles 370 and 35A, abrogated by Modi in 2019, won 110 seats compared to 74 for the BJP, which was the largest single party with the largest vote share. "Facing flak from opposition parties over rising fuel prices, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Saturday blamed the artificial price mechanism created by the Oil producing nations for spiralling retail prices of petrol and diesel which have touched an all time high." Which is blatantly untrue. The price of Brent crude today is $62.43 and the OPEC basket is at $60.54 per barrel. Price of crude oil averaged over $90 per barrel from 2011 to 2014, when Modi won his first term, and dropped sharply thereafter. The average price of petrol across the US on 8 February was around $2,5 per US gallon. One US gallon equals 3.785 liters and today's exchange rate is 1 USD equals Rs 72.57 Which means that petrol is selling at about Rs 48 per liter, including tax, in the US, while we in India are hemorrhaging Rs 90 per liter. Extortion. You have to tear into others to hide your own misdeeds. For how long?
Friday, February 12, 2021
Growth is not a hot air balloon.
"The 15th Finance Commission, in its recent report, has estimated that public debt will be 85.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025-26, even after the government begins to chip away at its fiscal deficit," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. According to advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Stephanie Kelton, "Any country that issues its own fiat currency, is in effect released from the usual concerns about how to fund a budget deficit." Meaning, the nation can just print more money to pay for the deficit in its revenue. "Monetisation of deficit was in practice in India till 1997, whereby the central bank automatically monetised government deficit through the issuance of ad hoc treasury bills," wrote Deepthi Mary Mathew. Oversupply of rupees caused its value to fall and a rise in inflation. To stop this practice the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act was passed in 2003. Our government does not borrow only in rupees but also has to borrow in foreign currency to finance our current account deficit because we spend more on imports than we earn through exports. "India's fiscal deficit -- the gap between its revenue and expenditure -- for the current financial year is set to rise to 9.5%, the highest since the country opened its markets to the world in 1991," wrote Nikhil Inamdar. "The composition of spending is skewed more towards higher capital expenditure (capex) than revenue expenditure," wrote Sonal Verma. "According to a past study by the RBI (Reserve Bank), the short-term (one-year) multiplier of capex (general government) is around 0.47, while the longer-term multiplier is 2.41." The Economic Survey 2020-21 said that if the the growth rate is higher than the fiscal deficit, debt as a percentage of the GDP will tend to fall. The very low interest rate will help to keep interest payments at reasonable levels. Interest payment on government debt will be Rs 8.40 trillion in 2021-22, while spending on grants-in-aid to states will be Rs 5.57 trillion, on agriculture and allied services will be Rs 3.82 trillion, on transport will be Rs 2.29 trillion, on defence will be Rs 2.21 trillion, on social services will be Rs 1.96 trillion and on rural development will be Rs 760 billion, wrote Pradeep S Mehta. "In the coming fiscal year, the government intends to raise Rs 36.04 trillion through 14-day treasury bills and has estimated Rs 21.06 trillion as revenue receipts, of which Rs 10.96 trillion is projected to come from tax revenue. The government intends to raise around Rs 12.06 trillion through market loans in 2021-22." "The only way India can pull itself out of this jam is if private investment pours into the country, financing projects that push up the country's growth rate," wrote Mihir Sharma. Unfortunately, "India isn't so attractive that it can expect vast sums of investment to arrive even if the macro-economic numbers look bad and the sovereign rating is junk." On 1 February, "finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman told us in her budget speech that 2020-21 will end with government expenditure growing by a much larger 28.4%", wrote CEO for the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Mahesh Vyas. "The growth is likely to be 17%, if we compare apples to apples, and if we are lucky." According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), only India and Indonesia get a C rating out of all G20 nations for their management of the coronavirus-induced economic crisis. Got to put your money where your mouth is. No time for hot air.
Thursday, February 11, 2021
The more we try for low profile the more famous we get.
"Twitter said on Monday it was seeking talks with India's technology minister, days after the country asked the US social media giant to take down 1,178 accounts it says are spreading misinformation about ongoing farmers' protests," reported Reuters. "India's security agencies said some of the accounts were being operated from outside the country and were sharing and amplifying misinformation and provocative content on the farmers' protests, one of the tech ministry's sources told Reuters, declining to be named as the order was not public." "The government, in its notice to Twitter, stated that the hashtag #ModiPlanningFarmerGennocide was found to be instigating, encouraging people to commit offences and participating in aggravating the violence." "The 2011 Census showed English is the primary language - mother tongue - of 256,000 people, the second language of 83 million people, and the third language of another 46 million people, making it the second most widely spoken language after Hindi." "English speakers are very much India's elite", which means they are very unlikely to resort to street violence. Most likely, a case of not taking His name in vain. Twitter responded that "if the content was found to violate the platform's rules, it is completely removed, as was the case with Trump's twitter account. However, if the content does not violate the platform rules but the law of the land, it is blocked within the country, or a certain location only." According to a UK company Camparitech, "India leads the list of countries with the most-submitted takedown requests in the past decade. That's across multiple major platforms; Facebook, Twitter, Google, Microsoft and Wikimedia." The government has threatened to arrest Twitter executives in India if its orders are not obeyed immediately. Very wisely Mahima Kaul who was Twitter's Director, Public Policy in India and South Asia resigned. Twitter is headquartered in San Francisco in the US and employees in India cannot apply force on the management. So, our government is intending to use India employees as hostages to force Twitter to comply. That is dangerous, depraved and shameful. Orders for censorship are issued at whims of faceless officials and reasons are kept secret according to Article 69A of the Information Technology Act, wrote Anuj Srivas. Naturally, other Americans have joined in, with Meena Harris, niece of Vice President Kamala Harris being accused of being anti-Hindu and retorting that she is a Hindu and to "stop using religion as a cover for fascism". "The governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) denies that journalists are being targeted and believes that much of what is happening is part of 'orchestrated propaganda' against the government." An "American digital forensics consulting firm found that 'fabricated' evidence was planted in the gadgets, including laptop and pen drive," seized from the house of activist Rona Wilson, reported the Washington Post. An online petition urging British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to take up the farmers' agitation in the House of Commons has attracted thousands of signatures, including cross party politicians. Particularly galling would have been a phone call from Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reminding Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of "the two nations' commitment to democratic principles, recent protests, and the importance of resolving issues through dialogue", after Modi unnecessarily humiliated Trudeau during his trip to India in 2018 with family. Question is: Are we famous or notorious?