Thursday, June 27, 2019

Where else can the money come from?

As the new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents her partial budget on 5 July she will have to repair the "Real collateral damage under Modi 1.0 was a loss of trust between government and business," wrote R Jagannathan, because trust "has been dented by five years of a relentless pursuit of greater tax compliance and black money". That is not going to relax. The government is preparing for a major crackdown on taxpayers in the belief that everyone is cheating on taxes. "The government dismissed 12 senior income-tax officers on charges of corruption and professional misconduct on June 10 and followed it up with another round of clean-up on June 18, when 15 senior income-tax officers, accused of corruption were made to compulsorily retire." "We are going to see a major crackdown, especially on GST, and to some extent, on the direct taxes side as well," said S Mukherjea. A special task force has been set up by the Finance Ministry, apparently to simplify tax laws and to increase enforcement. The government needs to increase the amount of tax it collects. Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI) Viral Acharya resigned recently because he believed that government borrowing not reflected in the fiscal deficit has reached 8-9% of GDP. Bond yields have gone down by 33 basis points even though interest rate has been reduced by 75 basis points by the RBI, wrote A Iyer. "Borrowings by government companies are off-balance-sheet items and do not reflect in the overall government debt. Off-balance-sheet items have surged to 2.4% of GDP in FY19 from 1.4% three years ago, points out Nomura Research." Public sector companies were milked of vast sums of money before the elections to show that deficit was within budget, wrote M Sharma. Bad loans means that banks are unable to lend for new projects. "At 12.3% of loans outstanding, Non-Performing-Assets (bad loans) are at unsustainable levels," wrote A Anand. Now the RBI is warning of serious problems in shadow banks. "The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report warned that the non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and mortgage firms in dire straits pose a serious threat." Government owned telecom firm BSNL does not have Rs 8.50 billion to pay June salaries. The telecom department has asked BSNL to stop any spending on new projects or any new purchase. State owned Air India has debts in excess of Rs 583 billion, the Civil Aviation Minister said. However, not every business man has suffered under Modi. Adani Group may take over Dighi Port after another bidder was forced to pull out. Six airports may also be handed over to Adani Group next month. Adani is from Gujarat. There is not going to be any respite for taxpayers. Whatever Jagannathan may wish for.

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