We have protected ourselves by trading little.

"If the world was flat and fast before 2008, today it's fat and slow," wrote Ruchir Sharma. It is 10 years since the Great Recession, the longest period of global recovery and US economic expansion. "Once the crisis hit, however, governments erected barriers to protect domestic companies. Central banks aggressively printed money to restore high growth." This has resulted in rising inequality by giving "big companies favorable access to cheap credit, encouraging them to grow even bigger." "In the United States and Europe, 65% of the major business sectors are dominated by the three largest companies in that sector, up from 40% in the years before 2008. As the power of dominant firms grows, the share of national income that goes to workers has been shrinking, fueling inequality -- and anger." Global trade is slowing. "Global flows of foreign direct investment fell by 13% last year" "the third consecutive annual decline, which officials blamed on multinational corporations bringing cash back to the United States after Trump's tax overhaul". US companies "brought back $85.9 billion in the fourth quarter and $664.9 billion for full year 2018", adding to $155.1 billion brought back in 2017. That maybe one reason why the US has been growing so strongly. "US GDP growth will slow to 2.1% in 2019 from 3% in 2018. It will be 1.9% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021," wrote K Amadeo. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "expects headline inflation to grow at slower pace at 1.5%, versus the 1.8% predicted in March" while "GDP growth is still expected to be 2.1% for the year, while the unemployment rate is now expected to hold at a 50-year low of 3.6%". Interest rate was held steady at yesterday's FOMC meeting. The global economy could fall into a recession in 2020, wrote Prof N Roubini. "With central banks' ability to serve as lenders of last resort increasingly constrained, illiquid financial markets are vulnerable to 'flash crashes' and other disruptions." "Factory activity contracted in most Asian countries last month as an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised fears of a global economic downturn and heaped pressure on policymakers in the region and beyond to roll out more stimulus." "Credit to non-financial corporations and governments in emerging markets has soared over the last decade and is at record highs," wrote MR Valladares, but India's debt, as a proportion of the GDP, is lower than others, the IMF said. Since we do not export much anyway a global recession should have lesser effect on us, and since private consumption is dropping it may help us by reducing imports. It's win-win all the way.