Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Can't remove one leg in case it collapses.

"No nation has sustained growth rates of 9-10% for two or more decades without succeeding in global markets. China's share in global merchandise exports rose from 2% in 1991 to 12.4% in 2012," wrote Prof A Panagariya, former Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog from January 2015 to August 2017. "Today India's share in global merchandise exports remains low at 1.7%." India's merchandise exports came in at a record $331 billion in 2018-19, but imports rose to $507.44 billion, giving a record trade deficit of $176 billion. Import of crude oil cost us $111.9 billion last fiscal, part of which was exported after refining, for a total of $35 billion in 2017-18. India has a total coastline of 7,517 km but we hardly produce any oil because most of our offshore areas remain unexplored. A former Petroleum Minister claimed that a strong oil import lobby threatens ministers trying to raise national oil output, but refused to name anyone. "The starting point for this strategy is shedding three of our current obsessions: import substitution, micro and small enterprises, and a strong rupee," wrote Panagariya. "Arbitrarily raising tariffs and bringing anti-dumping suits may benefit producers of some products, but they hurt the economy as a whole." Tariffs are raised to protect local businessmen friendly to the ruling party. Crony capitalism has been rampant in India since independence and nothing much has changed, wrote A Mukherjee. A company which benefits can then donate large sums of money to the party in anonymous electoral bonds. Our laws "incentivise" the creation of micro and small industries with no safety or social protection for workers, said the International Labor Organization. One reason is that companies with turnover of Rs 2.5 billion pay tax at 25%, while those with turnover greater than Rs 2.5 billion pay 30% tax, with a surcharge of 7-12%, and foreign companies pay tax at 40% with surcharge of 2-5%. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) India has the highest effective corporate tax rate of 48.3%, including surcharge, cess and securities transaction tax. Taxes naturally make everything more expensive for domestic users and for exports. Indian citizens pay double for fuel compared to export prices because of 100% tax. The rupee is kept strong to reduce prices of imports which keeps retail inflation under control. Retail inflation rose slightly to 3.05% in May from 2.92% in April. Low retail inflation permits the government to force the Reserve Bank (RBI) to lower interest rate which lowers the rate of interest on government borrowings. Which is why both Urjit Patel and Viral Acharya resigned from the RBI. The government wants the RBI to transfer Rs 3 trillion form its reserves to finance its spending. It is like a three-legged stool. Removing one will make it fall.

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