Monday, June 03, 2019

Indians settled in the US should be loyal.

In 2018, the US exported goods worth $120.3 billion to China -- a substantial amount, but dwarfed by the $539.5 billion of goods that it imported from China," wrote Prof K Basu. "No one doubts that China has historically flouted many of the global norms of trade and exchange-rate management." But, the US should do nothing because, "China is essentially biding its time, knowing that the US is unlikely to persist with high tariffs for too long. And if it does, it will end up ceding space in the global economy to China." It is wonderful how Indians allowed to settle in the US and enjoy all its benefits shamelessly take China's side. Americans think differently. "An indication that this conflict is here to stay is the striking bipartisan support for President Trump," wrote R Fontaine. Which means even Democrats, who are itching to impeach Trump, support him on this. China maybe gritting its teeth, waiting for elections in November next year in the hope that Trump will lose and there will be a new president more sympathetic to its arguments. Trump banned Chinese technology firm Huawei from supplying 5G equipment to the US and the US Department of Commerce banned US firms from supplying Huawei. In retaliation China has announced its own blacklist of US firms "that do not comply with market rules" or "impose blockades or stop supplies to Chinese enterprises for non-commercial reasons, and seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises". China blocks a long list of companies for non-commercial reasons, so its enterprises have legitimate business rights but others do not. Trade with Chinese characteristics. The CIA claims to have evidence that "Huawei has taken money from the People's Liberation Army, China's National Security Commission and a third branch of the Chinese state intelligence network". So, when Joy Tang said that, "The Chinese government does not have any ownership or any interference in our business operations," it was truth with Chinese Characteristics. China produces 90% of rare earths, 17 elements used in everything from smartphones to defense equipment, and could stop supplies to the US. If so, it would have to ban sale of rare earths to other countries as well because supplies to a country other than the US could be rerouted to the US. Basu thinks that "China is now so globally connected that isolating it would be virtually impossible", and so "a tariff war would have far worse long-term consequences for the US economy". Maybe not. China is a highly repressive state but people have accepted it in exchange for economic growth. Today is the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre which is defended as necessary by the regime. If the economy goes into recession the regime may implode. Best news for India.

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