Will our access to the West become impossible?

"India on Saturday asked its airlines to avoid flying on the over-water of Tehran (Iran) airspace with the Strait of Hormuz that connects Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman at its heart." Pakistan has closed its airspace to civilian flights to and from India since 26 February though India has capitulated by opening its airspace to Pakistani flights from 31 May. All flights from New Delhi to Europe and the US have to take the long route over Gujarat and then south of Pakistan causing longer flight times and higher ticket prices. Pakistan has been extending the ban incrementally to cause economic damage to India, in revenge for the strike on Balakot. By the end of April Air India had suffered a loss of Rs 3 billion, gleefully reported by Pakistan Today which gave a breakdown for the excess cost. The ban on flying over Iranian waters will extend flight time to Russia and eastern Europe but probably not to countries in western Europe. "US mega carrier United has already suspended both its India flights due to closure of en route airspaces of Iran (partially) and Pakistan." It's not just the extra cost and time. If airlines cut flights to the west India's business will be severely affected. Last week, US President Donald Trump stopped an attack on Iran with ten minutes to go because he thought that 150 casualties would be out of proportion to the shooting down of an unmanned US drone over the Gulf by Iran. Iran said that it chose not to shoot down a Boeing P-8 spy plane with 38 people on board that was flying close to the drone. It was a wise decision because it would give Washington no choice but to retaliate militarily. In 1988 the US shot down an Iranian commercial plane with 290 people on board, a crime it would certainly not want to repeat. Iran will retaliate if attacked. "Iran has demonstrated it can launch dozens of road-mobile short-range ballistic missiles beyond its borders. Recent innovations include a cruise missile likely patterned on a Soviet design with a range exceeding 1200 miles," said Miguel Miranda. "Iran will use militias, cells and spies, in Shia communities throughout the region to conduct sabotage, especially of the energy complex, kidnapping of Westerners and attacks on the US and its allies," said John Wood. Iran is already accused of attacking oil tankers with limpet mines which Iran denies. Iran's militia ally Hezbollah is thought to possess 130,000 rounds of rockets, more than most nations on earth. US launched cyber attacks on Iran's weapons system, which seems pointless because Iran will get them going again. Cyber attacks to paralyze Iran's weapons, coinciding with an armed attack, would be extremely effective. Trump has promised to impose even more sanctions on Iran from today. India has had to stop oil imports from Iran. So far crude oil prices are steady but if conflict breaks out prices will shoot up. The cost of flying to the West along a longer route may become prohibitive. Pakistan must be feeling happy.