When winning the throne is the prize.

Today, the BJP government of Narendra Modi is to present its last budget before general elections. Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance announced that this will be an interim budget, as opposed to a full budget. There has been enormous anxiety as to whether the government will present a full budget instead of a vote on account, defying convention. A vote on account seeks parliamentary approval for spending till elections are over and a new government has been installed. An interim budget will allow the Finance Minister to announce some new policies, possibly freebies and handouts, to try to maximize its chances. Why is it necessary? A report on the economy by the Mint showed that "the economic momentum is slowing in India, with weak aggregate demand, tepid wage growth, and relatively low price pressures in the economy", wrote N Kwatra. "Core sector growth (which captures trends in eight key industries -- electricity, steel, refinery products, crude oil, coal, cement, natural gas and fertilizers) slid to a 16-month low of 3.5% in its last reading in December." The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) reported that, "The number of employed recorded in December 2018 was at 397 million, which is 10.9 million less than the figure of 407.9 million seen a year ago in December 2017." "An estimated 9.1 million jobs were lost in rural India while the loss in urban India was 1.8 million jobs." At best the picture is mixed. The government received a bonanza from a dramatic fall in the price of crude oil towards the end of 2014, the year it came to power. "The average crude price under UPA II was $96/barrel. This figure is $61/barrel under the present government if one were to take figures until 2018 for the current fiscal year," wrote R Kishore. The low retail inflation is because of a collapse in the prices of food products which is hurting the rural population. Outside farming, "construction and trade, hotel, transport, storage and communication, have seen lower growth under the present government than what was achieved under UPA II". While Modi's popularity has fallen from 44% to 34%, the worrying thing is that Rahul Gandhi has jumped from 9% to 24%. In recent assembly elections, Modi failed to lift vote share of his party in areas where he campaigned while Gandhi had a beneficial effect. To mask its failure the government has resorted to subterfuge. Two members of the National Statistical Commission resigned because the government is suppressing the Commission's report on employment. The back series data on the growth of GDP was massaged to make it seem that growth under Modi has been higher than under the previous government. "In the past few years, the Modi government has faced severe criticism for either withholding reports or releasing data that is not rigorous," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Anything to win the elections. With it comes the throne.