Friday, January 11, 2019

How can peace advance unless the inertia is broken?

"It is no surprise that the Middle East has been particularly vulnerable to the unsettling effects of the Trump doctrine," wrote Shlomo Ben-Ami. "After all, the timid policies of Trump's immediate predecessor, Barack Obama, significantly exacerbated the region's dysfunction, opening the way for Trump to introduce what can only be described as mayhem." Like what? Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and shifted the US embassy from Tel Aviv to that city. Previous US presidents, including Clinton and Obama, supported the idea of an undivided Jerusalem but no one followed through on his talk. Trump did. People expected the Arab world to explode in fury, but nothing happened. Possibly because Arab nations are worried about Iran's expansion into Iraq and Syria and its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen. The largest Arab nations, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have been talking to Israel secretly. After the US move Guatemala and Australia have also recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Trump also stopped US funding of United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), "which supports five million registered Palestinian refugees". "One must be extraordinarily ignorant to believe Trump's claims that these actions amount to taking two of the thorniest issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 'off the table'." Israel declared independence on 14 May 1948, more than 70 years ago. This was followed by an invasion by the Arab states of Egypt, Syria and Jordan, along with forces from Iraq. 750,000 Palestinians fled or were driven from their homes, which is stilled mourned as 'Al Nakba', which means 'the Catastrophe'. The number has increased to over 5 million, recognized as refugees by the UN, one third of which still live in refugee camps. They claim the right to return to their ancestral properties. That is completely unacceptable to the Israelis because Israel has a population of around 9 million, of which nearly 21% are Arabs. Add another 5 million Palestinians and the Jews will be outnumbered. In 1967, Israel trounced Egypt, Syria and Jordan in the Six Day War, occupying the West Bank, the Golan Heights and the Sinai. In 1978, US President Jimmy Carter brokered a peace treaty between Anwar el-Sadat and Menachem Begin at Camp David, which resulted in the return of Sinai to Egypt. In 1981, Sadat was assassinated by the Muslim Brotherhood. In 1993, Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat signed an accord, for which they awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Rabin was shot dead by a right wing Israeli law student in 1995. Arafat died in 2004. Palestinians suspect he was murdered. "Under Trump, the US has established itself as a deeply disruptive force ....," says Ben-Ami. That's exactly what the Middle East needs. Break the inertia.

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