Monday, January 07, 2019

Will China start a war with the US, if the economy tanks?

"What the United States fears the most is taking casualties," said Rear Admiral Lou Yuan, deputy head of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences. In his view, "tensions in the South China Sea could be resolved by sinking a pair of US aircraft carriers." The Chinese believe that "Americans have gone soft ... (they) no longer have an appetite for sacrifice and at the first sign of genuine trouble they will cut and run," said Prof Brad Glosserman, China expert at Tokyo's Tama University. Lou has identified "five cornerstones of the United States" that he believes can be exploited -- "their military, their money, their talent, their voting system and their fear of adversaries". Recently, Chinese President promised to unite Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary. "China must and will be united ... which is an inevitable requirement for the greater rejuvenation of the Chinese people in the new era," he said. In response Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen called for international support to deal with the Chinese threat. Political parties in Taiwan were united in rejecting 'one country, two systems' outright, probably after seeing how China has brutally suppressed Hong Kong after promising a high degree of autonomy under the same system. US lawmakers voiced support for Taiwan against Chinese threats. If China attacks a US aircraft carrier there will be immediate attack on bases from where these missiles were fired and the US will impose a severe trade embargo on China to cut off its supplies of raw materials and bring its factories to a halt, wrote J Hendrix. Starting in Vietnam the US has lost every war it has fought. Why? "We're still stuck in this view that war is like the Super Bowl: We meet on the field, both sides have uniforms, we score points, someone wins, and when the game ends you go home," said Prof D Tierney. "That's not what war is like now. Now there are tons of civilians on the field, the enemy team doesn't wear a uniform, and the game never ends." Those problems are there but probably the real reason why it is so difficult to win outright is that war has to be politically correct. When Alexander conquered Persia his soldiers killed all men in the capital Persepolis, took women as slaves and burnt the palace down. It is estimated that Julius Caesar slaughtered 150,000 men, women and children of German tribes which had revolted against Rome. After exposure of atrocities in Vietnam by Seymour Hersh eliminating entire populations has become impossible. George Bush and Dick Cheney have been labeled war criminals and are  careful were they travel. However, an unprovoked attack on the US navy with loss of life will surely invite a ferocious response. Will a desperate Xi Jinping take the chance if a trade war escalates? It will be fun to watch.

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