Will Africa lead the world?

In 2018, Africa is began to stand its ground on economic policy, wrote Vice President and Chief Economist of the African Development Bank Group Celestin Monga. Landlocked Ruanda increased tariffs on imports of second-hand clothes and footwear from the US to protect its own industries. The US responded by suspending duty-free status of Rwanda's exports but Rwanda stood its ground "confident that it will find alternative markets for its exports". "African governments' motive for stepping up now is not only economic. It is also about dignity, intellectual freedom, and a willingness to risk charting one's own course." Advances in 3D printing and Artificial Intelligence will enable countries to produce goods, which they import at present, so manufacturing will become less important than trade. Africa has to take advantage of this change. However, fertility rates are the highest in the world in some African countries, even as birthrates are falling in richer countries. If this trend is not checked, "African children will make up nearly half the world's poorest people by 2030". "Despite economic growth, one in five children will live in poverty because of high fertility rates, inequality and deep-seated privation, according to the Overseas Development Institute." The other problem with many African nations is the refusal of their leaders to step down after finishing their terms. Africa has been showing its power for many years now. WTO talks in Cancun in 2003 collapsed when African nations walked out, infuriated by talks between some countries behind closed doors. They were not going to accept imposition of any deal, worked out by bigger countries, while excluding them from discussions. They were not willing to accept reductions in greenhouse gases while the US and China stayed out of any cuts in their pollution levels. In 2016, African countries, led by Morocco, deferred agreement on rules for digital trade. The US wanted fully open cross-border trade without paying any customs duty and without investing in local infrastructure or technology transfer. In October last year, Sierra Leone canceled a project under the Belt and Road Initiative, through which China was to build a new airport at a cost of $318 million outside its capital Freetown. For trade to flourish Africans must be able to travel from one country to another but, while citizens of African countries face visa restrictions to visit another nation in Africa, Europeans are able to travel in and out at will, without need for visas. Perhaps, because of failed states like Somalia where car bombs killed 52 in capital Mogadishu in November and foreign navies patrol its waters to stop piracy. As the fourth industrial revolution gathers pace we hope that Africa will race ahead. Provided they can solve their problems.