Will aggression cover its weakness?

"China's exports slumped in December as a rush of orders to beat expected tariffs showed signs of fading and as domestic buyers succumbed to a worsening economic outlook," wrote Xiaoqing Pi and E Curran. Exports fell 4.4% compared to a year earlier, while imports fell by 7.6%, a sign of "softening demand at home". "At the same time, China's overall trade surplus with the US hit a record in 2018, underscoring the political imperative to cut a deal ahead of a 1 March deadline after which US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods." The global economy is weakening, reducing demand for its exports. "The headwinds from trade comes at a time when policy makers are already grappling with decelerating consumption, falling factory sentiment, fears of producer deflation and worsening employment outlook." On 1 December, Meng Wanzhou of Huawei was arrested in Canada on a request by the US. China immediately arrested two Canadian citizens working there, one of whom has been sentenced to death for drug related charges. On 19 December, Trump signed a law that bans US visas for Chinese officials who do not permit Americans to visit Tibet," wrote S Deb. "On 31 December, Trump signed another law, the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, which goes after China's quasi-imperial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region." China always responds with threats. "We do not renounce the use of force and reserve the option to use all necessary measures" to reunite Taiwan with the mainland, Jinping said in a speech. Yesterday, a senior Chinese military official warned the US Navy that China will defend its claim on Taiwan "at any cost". Last month, the deputy head of a Chinese military academy told an audience that sinking a couple of US aircraft carriers will make the US run away because, "What the US fears most is taking casualties." China's aggression abroad and repression at home shows the limits of the autocratic one-party system, wrote Prof B Chellaney. "Its overriding focus on domestic order explains one unusual but ominous fact: China's budget for internal security -- now officially at $196 billion -- is larger than even its official military budget, which has grown rapidly to eclipse the defence spending of all other powers except the US." China needs rapid economic growth to escape the 'middle income trap' but "China's president has persistently downplayed the benefits of the private sector and favored sclerotic state-owned national champions instead", wrote D Fickling. The trade war is totally Trump's fault and US consumers will suffer, wrote two Chinese economists. Foreigners monitor every word of Xi Jinping. So, bromides are unlikely to help.