Saturday, December 22, 2018

What if Trump is planning something?

A few days back US President Donald Trump stunned everyone by ordering a complete pullout of US troops from Syria. Trump claimed that ISIS has been defeated in Syria so there is no reason to stay any longer. One day later Secretary of Defence James Mattis resigned citing difference of opinion with Trump. "While the US remains the indispensable nation in the free world, we cannot protect our interests or serve that role effectively without maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies," he wrote. He resigned, "Because you have a right to a secretary of defence whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position." Trump's withdrawal from Syria is the same sort of mistake that Obama made when he withdrew troops from Iraq. "Today Islamic State is much stronger than it was when Obama withdrew from Iraq in 2011," wrote MA Thiessen. The IS still has around 30,000 fighters and is more dangerous than Al Qaeda. The US is also to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan which will still leave behind another 7,000. The British who indulge in their delusion of being a world power, while being protected by US soldiers, are naturally dismayed. Trump's opponents say that Russia, Iran and Bashar al-Assad will be winners. Getting troops out of Syria is the right decision, wrote PR Pillar. "To keep US troops in Syria now implies a forever war, with no realistic ending imaginable." If Russia is an enemy and if ISIS has 30,000 fighters then it makes eminent sense to let them fight each other, weakening both. ISIS attacked two Russian bases in Syria with makeshift drones armed with explosives. The Russians tracked down and killed the terrorists behind the attack. The same logic applies to Iran and the Hezbollah. With the US gone they will have to face all the Sunni forces lined up against them. What Turkey does will be interesting, Will President Erdogan attack the Kurds in Northern Syria and allow ISIS to regroup, we do not know. Trump thinks that Turkey will easily mop up the last remnants of ISIS in Syria. That will give a clear victory to Assad and Russia. In the Middle East there are no friends. Relations depend on the degree of enmity. Trump wants to tighten sanctions on Iran's oil industry so that the regime collapses. So far he has allowed waivers to India and China to import oil from Iran but those waivers run out in 6 months. Iran has vowed to stop all oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are tightened. That may mean all out war with Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia. Will the US support the Arabs by bombing Iranian positions? Iran will retaliate through its proxy, the Hezbollah. In any event it is better to get US troops out of harm's way. What if Trump has a plan in mind? Scary.







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