Sunday, December 09, 2018

Competition is good for business, except in India.

"Only a renegade economist will betray his brethren with such blasphemy that too much competition can be harmful," wrote A Ranade. "This goes against the most basic axioms of economics." Provided there is no cheating and there is a level playing field, competition is essential to provide best quality at lowest prices. This has been accepted since, "Adam Smith's 'The Wealth Of Nations', the Bible of capitalism and free markets, was written almost a century before Charles Darwin's 'The Origin Of Species'". The adverse effect of excessive competition is best exemplified by app-based taxi services which enticed drivers with high commissions, that have now been reduced. "Most drivers have taken car loans and their current earnings are just not enough to pay the monthly installment." If the government interferes it will kill the business model. Until about a decade ago weaker companies were kept alive by soft loans from public sector banks and price fixing, wrote S Mukherjea. "For reasons which don't fully understand, this paradigm was disrupted a decade ago and we entered a more competitive era in Indian business wherein weaker firms were either bankrupted or forced to sell out." Pre-tax return on capital employed (ROCE) has fallen leading to a fall in growth of earnings per share (EPS). As weaker firms are swallowed up by stronger ones jobs will be lost and wage growth will be suppressed. "Given the spate of consolidations over the last two years, there could be job losses in the range of 7-20%, depending on how identical businesses are. It could impact compensation levels if supply exceeds demand and this is driven by marker forces," said S Reddy. Private investment has fallen since 2014 when this government was elected, wrote Prof P Balakrishnan. The private sector is comprised of corporate and unincorporated, also known as the household sector. "Since 2014, after initially declining private corporate investment has shown a mild rise while household investment has fallen sharply." Resulting in a decline in total investment. which means fewer jobs. Recent demand for traffic brigade jobs in the Prime Minister's home state of Gujarat shows how desperate young people are. These are not traffic police but daily wage laborers. Fear of lack of jobs means that people are spending less, wrote A Nag. Which will impact EPS, discourage private investment and lead to fewer jobs. In all this gloom there is some good news. Indians working abroad are to send $80 billion in remittances, according to the World Bank. Since we always run a huge trade deficit, importing far more than we export, perhaps we should export our brains. There is no competition for brains.

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