We are not the US. We are always carefree.

Stock markets always want a low interest rate and Wall Street is no exception. In its last meeting in November the US Federal Reserve left its Funds Rate unchanged at 2-2.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had alarmed markets in October, saying, "Interest rates are still accommodative, but we're gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral. We may go past neutral, but we are long way from neutral at this point, probably." "The market has been under incredible pressure, concerned that the Fed is just going to go charging ahead," said S Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco. "The Fed understand that and from their latest commentary they're starting to walk it back a little bit." "It will not be easy to raise interest rates once central bankers have got investors addicted to low rates," wrote VA Nageswaran. But they should remember that, "Recessions are healthy in the sense that they clear excess inventory, stop the production of wrong goods and expose malinvestment." "Further, they temper excessive risk taking by investors and businesses such that systemic risk never reaches dangerous levels in the upswing that follows." Worried about a recession before he starts campaigning for re-election in 2020 US President Donald Trump said, "I'd like to see the Fed with a lower interest rate. I think the rate's too high." Is he right to worry? "The U.S. Treasury yield curve just inverted in more than a decade," wrote B Chappatta. The normal yield curve is where yields on long term bonds are higher than yields on short term ones because risks multiply on longer maturity. When the yields on long term bonds are lower than on short term ones the yield curve is said to have inverted, which predicts a recession. "The yield curve from three to five years dipped below zero during the last cycle for the first time in August 2005, some 28 months before the recession began." Traders analyze the yield curve to see how the economy is faring. If yields on short term Treasuries are higher it means that the price is lower, because they are inversely related, so the government is able to raise less by selling its bonds. "The risk of a US recession in the next two years has risen to 40%, according to a Reuters poll of economists..." wrote S Sarkar. According to L Wang, signs of recession are already apparent if we take the stock markets indices. "There's the $3 trillion in value erased, the bloodbath in banks and the trouncing in transports." "A relatively calm week in the Dow Jones Industrial Average just ended with a 495-point thud." India is different. Here the markets are cheering a possibility of government robbing the Reserve Bank reserves, banks being allowed to return to crony lending and more liquidity to postpone clearing up bad loans. The US may worry, but we Indians are happy.