With 2018 winding down experts are turning into astrologers to try and predict what 2019 will bring.
"A recession in 2019 in the US will neither be surprising nor undesirable," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "it will slow down because, inevitably, excesses build up over a long expansion. They have to be eliminated." However, the dollar will remain strong because "the dollar is a countercyclical currency". Emerging markets will find it tough to cope with a strong dollar and a drop in US imports as it goes into recession. "In addition, emerging economies have to contend with economic and political turbulence in China," China is facing a pushback because "It wrongly believes that the decline of the West has begun and that the time has come for it to declare its arrival on the world stage as the true Middle Kingdom." "These forecasts are, for the most part, exercises in futility," sniffs B Ritholtz. He cites Bitcoin, gold and the stock market to show how wrong predictions were. David Stockman has predicted a stock market crash every year since 2012 and is predicting one for 2019 as well. Dow Jones dropped by 653 points on Christmas eve and the S&P 500 is in bear territory, so Stockman maybe right this time. Inequality is growing and the richest 1% is predicted to hold 64% of the total wealth of the world by 2030. As inequality keeps growing so the anger of those left behind will also grow. The US has a large middle class but 92% of women and 82% of men earn less than Rs 10,000 per month in India. Hunger is rising in the world, including in India, even as food prices have been falling. If the US does go into recession and the rate of growth falls in China, prices of commodities will remain depressed. The poor who work in these sectors will be hit. There are 23 billion chickens in the world at any one time and 65.8 billion were slaughtered in 2014. But it is the way the birds are kept and transported before slaughter that is unbearably cruel. As the population multiplies in poor countries so the cruelty to animals will be justified as necessary to feed the poor. As poor people multiply there will be disputes about whether to use land for more housing or for growing food. We think that last year was the worst but next year will be no better, wrote J Tolentino in 2017. There is nothing special about 1st January, except hope for a better future, which we cannot control anyway. There can be a major conflict anywhere in the world, which will displace more people and increase poverty. Immortality is impossible, so human beings will get old and die. "In the long run we are all dead," wrote John Maynard Keynes. True, but who will care for us as we get old? We live on hope.
"A recession in 2019 in the US will neither be surprising nor undesirable," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "it will slow down because, inevitably, excesses build up over a long expansion. They have to be eliminated." However, the dollar will remain strong because "the dollar is a countercyclical currency". Emerging markets will find it tough to cope with a strong dollar and a drop in US imports as it goes into recession. "In addition, emerging economies have to contend with economic and political turbulence in China," China is facing a pushback because "It wrongly believes that the decline of the West has begun and that the time has come for it to declare its arrival on the world stage as the true Middle Kingdom." "These forecasts are, for the most part, exercises in futility," sniffs B Ritholtz. He cites Bitcoin, gold and the stock market to show how wrong predictions were. David Stockman has predicted a stock market crash every year since 2012 and is predicting one for 2019 as well. Dow Jones dropped by 653 points on Christmas eve and the S&P 500 is in bear territory, so Stockman maybe right this time. Inequality is growing and the richest 1% is predicted to hold 64% of the total wealth of the world by 2030. As inequality keeps growing so the anger of those left behind will also grow. The US has a large middle class but 92% of women and 82% of men earn less than Rs 10,000 per month in India. Hunger is rising in the world, including in India, even as food prices have been falling. If the US does go into recession and the rate of growth falls in China, prices of commodities will remain depressed. The poor who work in these sectors will be hit. There are 23 billion chickens in the world at any one time and 65.8 billion were slaughtered in 2014. But it is the way the birds are kept and transported before slaughter that is unbearably cruel. As the population multiplies in poor countries so the cruelty to animals will be justified as necessary to feed the poor. As poor people multiply there will be disputes about whether to use land for more housing or for growing food. We think that last year was the worst but next year will be no better, wrote J Tolentino in 2017. There is nothing special about 1st January, except hope for a better future, which we cannot control anyway. There can be a major conflict anywhere in the world, which will displace more people and increase poverty. Immortality is impossible, so human beings will get old and die. "In the long run we are all dead," wrote John Maynard Keynes. True, but who will care for us as we get old? We live on hope.
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